(MENAFN- Asia Times)
Japan, along with the rest of the world, is watching with growing unease the seemingly unending turbulence of the American presidential election campaign.
The past month has been a roller coaster, beginning with President Joe Biden's disastrous debate performance, which triggered rising cries within his own party for him to step aside. Former president Donald Trump, already buoyed by Biden's troubles, narrowly escaped an assassin's bullet, an iconic moment that boosted his Political fortunes.
On Sunday, the election took another dramatic turn when Biden announced his decision to withdraw from the race. The president immediately endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic Party's nominee.
The outcome of this chaotic election is far from certain. However, as of now, the prospect that Trump will return to power in Washington must be taken seriously.
The Republican convention cemented the control of that party by an isolationist, protectionist and Christian nationalist movement – the so-called MAGA (Make America Great Again) movement that harkens to the neo-fascism of the 1930s.
The choice of a novice US senator from Ohio, JD Vance, as the vice-presidential candidate confirmed that takeover. Vance is a deep advocate of the ideology of this movement.
What might Trump's return to power mean for Japan and for other allies who remain highly dependent on the US as the bastion of what remains of the postwar order?
This writer sought the advice of prominent and respected Japan experts in the United States – Richard Samuels of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) and Sheila Smith of the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR).
Together, we have constructed a list of the five most likely nightmares for Japan should Trump and his movement triumph in November. It is by no means an exhaustive list – more dangers no doubt lurk beyond these.
Nightmare 1: trade war and economic fricti on
Trump has repeatedly announced plans to impose an across-the-board 10 percent tariff on all imported goods, and an even larger – 50-60% – tariff on Chinese imports. He has been an advocate of trade protectionism measures for decades.“Economically, they're phenomenal,” he told Bloomberg Businessweek in a recent interview.“And man, is it good for negotiation.”
Trump also intends to aim at the disparity in exchange rates among the dollar, the yen and the yuan, signaling his intention to engineer a massive devaluation of the dollar along the lines of the September 1985 Plaza Accords.
He told Bloomberg that Japan and China have deliberately kept their currencies weak to aid their trade surpluses.“That's how Japan was built. That's how China was built. I think we're in a very bad position,” Trump declared.
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