(MENAFN- AzerNews)
Fatime Letifova
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The resolution of the long-standing Azerbaijan-Armenia conflict
in the South Caucasus is of significant interest not only to
regional states but also to countries worldwide. The nearly
30-year-long war claimed thousands of lives. The aggressive
policies of Armenia's former government aimed to erase Azerbaijan's
Garabagh region from the map and establish the so-called Republic
of Artsakh. During this period, many Azerbaijani border areas were
shelled, targeting civilians.
In 2020, Azerbaijan launched a counter-offensive operation,
resulting in the withdrawal of the Armenian army from Garabagh.
Following local anti-terror operations in 2023, Armenian
separatists in the region were neutralised and arrested. The 44-day
war shifted the political dynamics in the South Caucasus, marking
the beginning of a new historical chapter.
After the liberation of Garabagh, reconstruction and repair
efforts were undertaken, and Azerbaijani residents returned to
their homeland. Currently, peace negotiations between Azerbaijan
and Armenia remain outstanding. Last month's meeting between the
foreign ministers of the two countries in Almaty marked another
step towards peace.
However, forces seeking to disrupt stability and hinder peace in
the region remain active. The Armenian lobby in the West,
particularly in France, strives to create unrest within Armenia and
escalate tensions with Azerbaijan. The Macron government continues
to arm Armenia, while radical groups incite domestic unrest.
During the peace process, there were seven instances in June
alone where the Armenian army fired at Azerbaijani positions-five
times in Nakhchivan and twice in Kalbajar. The violation of the
ceasefire, especially towards Nakhchivan, can be seen as an action
by provocative forces within Armenia against the realisation of the
Zangazur corridor and the return of the Karki village to
Azerbaijan.
It appears that opposition
forces in Armenia or the 'Karabakh clan' are ordering their
supporters in the army to fire towards Azerbaijan. For Azerbaijan,
this issue may merely strain relations with Armenia again. However,
for Armenia, the problem is more significant. The opposition's
influence within the army could spark a sudden military coup in the
country.
In February of this year, when Armenian forces wounded an
Azerbaijani soldier, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan understood this
as a provocation and made some changes within the Armenian army.
This situation proves that radical forces could take control of the
Armenian army and act contrary to Pashinyan's decisions. Although
Pashinyan's peace-oriented actions have somewhat managed to keep
these forces in check, elements aiming to overthrow the government
still exist within the country.
Following the recent ceasefire violation, Armenia proposed
creating a mechanism to investigate these incidents in Azerbaijan.
In an official statement, Yerevan emphasised the Armenian
government's commitment to preventing tensions. However, Paris
intervened during the ceasefire breach, expressing its "support"
for Armenia with new weapons.
This raises the question: If the war is over, what is
France's true intention in arming Armenia and signing the delivery
of nearly 40 self-propelled howitzers? Is it really to support
Pashinyan's government?
While Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has declared his readiness
to sign a peace treaty with Azerbaijan, the provocative activities
of the French government and revanchist forces currently hinder
peace between Baku and Yerevan. It is unfortunate that the Armenian
Prime Minister is struggling to contend with both the church and
the army yet fails to achieve a decisive outcome. Pashinyan either
cannot or does not dare to conclude this process. In any case, the
increasing frequency of ceasefire violations and the West's
militarization of Armenia intensify the tension in the South
Caucasus, adversely affecting the negotiation process.
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