Will Next Iran President Make Nicer With The West?

This has blunted the impact of Western diplomacy; Iran simply doesn't feel compelled to come to an agreement with the US and its allies on security interests.

The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action , the nuclear nonproliferation agreement signed in 2015 but abandoned by the Trump administration in 2018, is a prime example. Western leaders have sought to ensure that Iran does not acquire nuclear weapons, but they failed to get cooperation from Iran after President Donald Trump's withdrawal from the agreement.

Despite this lack of progress, the US and Iran still have lines of communication. After Israel's attack on an Iranian Embassy compound in Syria the US clearly signaled to Tehran that it had not been involved in the operation, in an apparent attempt to avoid a retaliatory strike on US interests in the region.

Nonetheless, Iran has little incentive to negotiate given the inconsistent, unpredictable policies of US leadership .

Meanwhile, an impending US-Saudi security pact could push Iran farther from engagement with the West and closer to China and Russia's orbit.

The US and Europe ultimately have two goals: to prevent Iran from building a nuclear weapon and to reduce Iran-sponsored conflict in the Middle East.

But, to date, both goals seem elusive with Iran's continued , unabated uranium enrichment and its attacks throughout the Middle East regularly taking place.

In the past, Iran gave diplomacy a chance out of fear that not showing some willingness could play into the hands of Western hawks who push for military strikes against Iran.

A new reformist president in Iran could galvanize support for bringing diplomats to the negotiating table. However, it would likely need the supreme leader's blessing.

In any event, the next president is looking more likely to be a hard-liner aligned with the supreme leader. And, while the Iranians may feel domestic and international pressure to advocate for a more conciliatory tone, they may just as easily double down on current policy.

With confidence in reaching a diplomatic solution waning, the US and its allies have turned to other means to pressure Iran.

Western intelligence agencies have carried out various information campaigns and cyber operations aimed at undermining confidence in Iran's leaders and their regional strategies.

For example, in 2010 a joint U.S.-Israel cyber operation named Stuxnet compromised the Natanz nuclear material enrichment facility in Iran, degrading and disrupting normal centrifuge operations while signaling to operators they were operating normally.

Such operations continue to this day in response to Iran's failing to address US security concerns on nuclear proliferation and its anti-West activities in the region.

Tehran likewise engages in cyber warfare. In 2023, a US report warned that Iran is likely to increase its use of aggressive cyber operations to achieve its policy goals. They include the use of state-sponsored proxies to deploy destructive malware and ransomware.

The Iranian presidential election comes amid a backdrop of domestic discontent – and offers the West an opportunity to flex another tactic to pressure Tehran: anti-regime propaganda.

In an effort to reduce support for the existing government and sow discontent among the Iranian public, independent radio and news networks backed by the US and its European allies have targeted the Iranian public with anti-Iranian government messaging and amplified local protests .

Iran's presidential candidates have broadly promised sanctions relief , potentially to counter messaging from the West. Such efforts suggest the candidates are sensitive to the sanctions' disproportionate effects on everyday Iranians, particularly the middle class.

In recent years, the US and Europe have increased sanctions on Iran for a variety of reasons. Iran's repressive response to the 2022 protests following the death of a young woman, Mahsa Jina Amini, in police custody triggered various sanctions from the European Union. Most recently, in April, the US and UK leveraged sanctions to dissuade Iran from escalating the conflict in the Middle East and selling drones to Russia .

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Sanctions, such as those leveraged during the United States' maximum pressure campaign during Trump's presidency, have undeniably placed some pressure on Iran's financial systems and trade. You can see their influence in the country's high inflation rates and economic contraction.

But some analysts have argued that the campaign has hardened Iran and undermined diplomatic efforts .

Others hold that sanctions have had no effect, given how Russia and China have provided relief by providing Iran access to their markets.

While sanctions have demonstrably weakened Iran's economy, their success in achieving the broader strategy of bringing Iran back to the negotiating table – particularly concerning its nuclear program and regional activities – is less clear.

Turning to military means?

Since October 7, 2023, when Hamas militants launched a surprise attack on Israel, the US has shown a growing willingness to turn to military responses to counter Iranian-backed groups.

The most notable US and UK airstrikes occurred in February, in retaliation for an earlier drone strike by an Iranian-backed group that killed three US service members in Jordan.

To date, Western airstrikes have carried more of a symbolic effect aimed at dampening Iranian-backed provocations. But they demonstrate the military might of the US and its allies.

In recent years, diplomacy, sanctions and soft power have failed to entice Iran's leaders back to the table. Iran's new president may well continue down the path of disengagement, but doing so risks inviting the West to sharpen its deterrence response.

Nakissa Jahanbani ia an adjunct lecturer at Penn State and Daniel P. Colletti is an instructor of American politics at the United States Military Academy West Point .

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article .

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