US Upgrading Long-Serving B-52 To Take On China

For armaments, The War Zone states that the US Air Force plans to arm the B-52J with hypersonic weapons to engage high-priority, time-sensitive targets at standoff ranges. New underwing pylons and internal rotary missile launchers could significantly increase the B-52J's weapons payload to include precision-guided bombs, naval mines, stealthy air-launched cruise missiles, swarming drones and long-range air-to-air missiles.

In explaining the B-52's longevity, Jeff Schogol notes in an April 2019 article for The National Interest that, unlike fighters, the B-52 does not need to perform high-G maneuvers. Schogol says that many B-52s spent their careers on alert with the US Strategic Air Command (SAC) during the Cold War, meaning they didn't fly many missions. These circumstances most likely preserved their airframe integrity to outlast their successors, the B-1 Lancer and B-2 Spirit.

Further, Asia Times reported in December 2022 that while the B-1 supersonic bomber was intended to partially replace the B-52, maintenance problems have limited its capabilities and led to its early retirement.

The B-1 fleet's ability to engage in low-altitude supersonic flight is restricted because of the deterioration from close air-support missions in Afghanistan and Iraq. This limitation removes the primary purpose for which the aircraft was designed – a supersonic bomber to penetrate Soviet air defenses. As a result, the B-1 fleet is scheduled to be decommissioned in 2036.

The B-2 stealth bomber was designed to avoid detection by Soviet air defenses while operating at low subsonic speeds. However, due to cost concerns, the US capped production of the B-2 at just 21 planes and halted production in 2020, in stark contrast to the 76 current-generation B-52Hs in service. Restarting B-2 production was considered too expensive at $2 billion per plane.

While the B-52's non-stealth design may limit its use in contested airspace, unlike the upcoming B-21, Peter Suciu notes in a May 2024 TNI article that the B-21 may be limited by low production rate and limited numbers.

Suciu points out that while the USAF expects 24 to 30 B-21s to be operational by the early 2030s with a peak production rate of 10 aircraft during that period, older bombers such as the B-52 and B-1 had a much higher production rate of 20 aircraft per year. He points out that the B-21 may not be available in sufficient numbers soon enough.

In line with that, the B-52J may suffer delays similar to those of the B-21. According to a US Government Accountability Office (GAO) report this month , the B-52J is facing a three-year delay that's pushing its initial operational capability to 2033.

The GAO report says the delay stems from funding shortfalls affecting the B-52 commercial engine replacement program, which won't see a critical design review and contract award until August 2025. It mentions that additional delays are linked to the B-52 Radar Modernization Program, which experienced a 12.6% cost increase from its 2021 estimate. The cost now totals $2.58 billion.

Despite those setbacks, the GAO report notes that the AGM-181 long-range standoff missile , intended to replace the AGM-86B ALCM carried by the B-52, is progressing toward achieving an initial operational capability in 2030.

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Also, China's rapidly advancing air defense capabilities may challenge the survivability of upgraded B-52Js. An interactive map released by the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative (AMTI) shows that China has all of the South China Sea and its neighboring countries within the range of bombers, fighters and surface-to-air missile (SAM) sites.

AMTI says that from Woody Island, Subi Reef and Mischief Reef China can launch J-10 and J-11 fighter jets and H-6K bombers, with those features defended by long-range HQ-9 SAM sites.

In October 2023, a Chinese fighter came within 10 feet of a US B-52 bomber over the South China Sea. The fighter was performing a risky maneuver that almost caused a collision. That move may hint at China's tactics to counter upgraded US B-52Js and other stealth aircraft.

To avoid being left behind in bomber modernization, the South China Morning Post reported this month that China is poised to unveil its H-20 stealth bomber, which is the counterpart to the US B-2 and B-21.

However, the newspaper notes that the H-20 remains shrouded in secrecy with no confirmed launch date despite persistent rumors of its imminent readiness.

According to the SCMP, the H-20 is anticipated to have a flying wing structure, a hard-to-detect coating and the capacity to transport both regular and nuclear weapons over a distance of at least 8,500 kilometers. It also adds that the H-20 will form the air-based leg of China's nuclear triad.

SCMP says the H-20 is aimed at replacement of the aging H-6 strategic bomber, which struggles to compete against contemporary US and Russian models such as the supersonic Tu-160, stealth B-2 and long-serving B-52.

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