USD/JPY Analysis Today 04/06: Under Selling Pressure (Chart)
(MENAFN- Daily Forex)
The Japanese yen rose to around 155.80 yen against the US dollar, hovering near its strongest level in two weeks as the US dollar weakened on the back of weak US manufacturing data that supported expectations of rate cuts by the federal Reserve. Domestically, investors are looking to Japanese wage and household spending data this week, which could affect expectations for local monetary policy. Last week, bank of Japan board member Seiji Adachi said the central bank could raise interest rates if a sharp decline in the yen's value leads to further inflation.
For his part, BOJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida also said that the end of the battle against deflation is in sight, adding that wages are likely to continue to rise. The latest data showed that Tokyo's core inflation rate accelerated to 1.9% in May from 1.6% in April, but remained below the BOJ's 2% target of Japanese Intervention in Forex Markets:
Japan's finance minister defended the government's record intervention in the forex market in the first acknowledgment of the move. "We have intervened in the market to counter excessive movements in the foreign exchange market, which were driven by speculation," Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki told reporters on Tuesday. "From that standpoint, we believe it had a certain effect." Suzuki's remarks were the first by any official after his ministry disclosed figures on Friday showing it spent ¥9.8 trillion ($62.7 billion) supporting the yen between April 26 and May 29. Furthermore, the Japanese currency is still stronger than it was when the interventions are believed to have occurred, with its weakest point at 160.17 to the dollar, compared to around 156.40 in Tokyo afternoon trading on Tuesday. Officials have remained tight-lipped about the exact timing.
After briefly falling above 160 per dollar for the first time in more than 30 years, the yen rose more than five yen to the dollar on April 29. Moreover, this was followed by a jump in the yen from around 157.52 to 153.04 in New York trading on May 1.“It is not known whether the yen will stop falling at 160 yen to the dollar without intervention, so it has to be said that it was effective,” said Yukio Ishizuki, senior currency analyst at Daiwa Securities.
In general, Japanese officials tend to remain tight-lipped about whether they entered the market immediately after a major move as part of their strategy to keep market participants guessing, which may make traders more cautious about pushing currencies beyond key thresholds.
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USD/JPY Technical Analysis and Expectations Today
Based on the performance on the daily chart attached, despite recent selloffs, the overall trend for the USD/JPY exchange rate remains upward. Technically, a preliminary break in the general trend will not occur without the pair moving towards the support levels of 154.20 and 153.00, respectively. Moreover, the divergence between the future policies of the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan will continue to support the bulls' control until a Japanese intervention in the currency markets occurs to halt the yen's depreciation.
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