Original-Research: Marley Spoon Group (Von Nuways AG)

(MENAFN- EQS Group) Original-Research: Marley Spoon Group - from NuWays AGClassification of NuWays AG to Marley Spoon GroupCompany Name: Marley Spoon GroupISIN: LU2380748603Reason for the research: UpdateRecommendation: KaufenTarget price: EUR 7.00Target price on sight of: 12 MonatenLast rating change: Analyst: Mark SchüsslerMixed 2024 guidance // efficiency measures bearing fruit; chg. Last week, Marley Spoon Group ('MSG') released a mixed 2024 guidance. Salesare expected to grow by a single-digit percentage versus the prior year(eNuW new: +9% yoy; eNuW old: +17% yoy), largely driven by two separatedevelopments owing to MSG's structure, which consists of the core mealkitbusiness Marley Spoon SE (>95% ownership) and the newly acquired bistroMD,operating in the ready-to-eat business: 1) While consumer demand has stabilized throughout 2023, the company citedcautious consumer behavior in the meal-kit market as the main culprit forthe muted outlook and now expects a single-digit percentage decline forFY24e (eNuW new: -3% yoy; eNuW old: +5% yoy). In our view, this should beexplained by a continued normalization in the number of active subscribersfrom Covid highs (eNuW: -3% yoy), the effect of which is likely morepronounced for Europe and Australia than for the US. 2) The guidance implies, however, that on a group level its recentacquisition of bistroMD shows a noticable impact on the overall toplinedevelopment (FY24e revenue of € 39m, +10% yoy; eNuW), demonstrating theattractiveness and resilience of the ready-to-eat market. BesidesbistroMD's leading doctor-designed RTE meal plans playing on relevantconsumer trends like health, convenience, and weight-loss, this acquisitionlikely offers MSG an opportunity to use its own data and technologyplatform to generate synergies over time. Though MSG expects its contribution margin to remain flat (FY23: ~31.7%),operating EBITDA is seen to grow to a positive mid-single-digit figure forthe full year (eNuW: € 2m), despite the fact that bistroMD should operateon a lower contribution margin (eNuW: ~30%) and negative EBIT due to lackof scale. The positive margin outlook is seen to be carried by (1) arectified voucher strategy, likely increasing marketing efficiency andearly cohort retention rates in H2'23 and Q1'24 and (2) a more streamlinedG&A setup (-11% yoy to c. € 69m, excluding one-off costs) as costreductionmeasures from automation, centralization, and the closure of underutilizedoperations begin to kick in. While it looks like 2024 will be another challenging year for the meal kitmarket, we like both the strategic outlook and the operational progress MSGhas made over the past quarters towards group profitability, leading us toreiterate our BUY rating with a changed PT of € 7.00 (old: € 8.00) based onDCF can download the research here:For additional information visit our websiteContact for questionsDie Analyse oder weiterführende Informationen zu dieser können Sie hier downloaden: NuWays AG - Equity ResearchWeb: Email: ...LinkedIn: Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany++++++++++Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.++++++++++-------------------transmitted by EQS Group AG.-------------------The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research result of this research does not constitute investment adviceor an invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.


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