Philippines Arming Up For D-Day With China

As such, Manila is stepping up its acquisition of increasingly high-end military equipment while expanding sophisticated military exercises with partners including the US, Japan and Australia.

Aside from relying on US military aid, including a recently delivered C-130 transport plane, the Philippines is aiming to procure modern fighter jets, submarines and strategic missile systems under a 2 trillion peso (US$36 billion) military modernization program.

That big gun budget has gained the attention of regional arms vendors. Over 20 Indian defense companies visited the Philippines recently to explore expanded military cooperation following New Delhi's recent delivery of its Brahmos supersonic missiles to the Southeast Asian nation.

Meanwhile, the Philippines and Sweden are also exploring a major fighter jet deal as Manila aims to modernize its relatively small and aging fleet.

Most dramatically, France is offering a multibillion-dollar submarine deal to the Philippines amid negotiations over a reciprocal access agreement .

The European power is expected to participate for the first time this year in the Philippine-US Balikatan exercises, among the region's largest. Other new partners such as South Korea and Spain are also offering modern weapons systems to the Southeast Asian nation.

Although the continent-sized China has territorial and maritime disputes with a wide range of nations across its massive borders, tensions with the Philippines have reached a fever pitch in recent months.

For China, the Southeast Asian nation has rapidly transformed from a“special friend” in Southeast Asia under the Rodrigo Duterte presidency (2016-2022) into a major enabler of Western power projection under the Ferdinand Marcos Jr administration.

Despite pronouncing a“new golden era” in bilateral relations, Marcos Jr has steadily adopted an uncompromising stance on the two sides' South China Sea disputes.

That shift came after his largely fruitless state visit to Beijing last year, which produced no tangible agreements on outstanding bilateral concerns including the intensifying maritime spats and the billions of dollars of unfulfilled Chinese infrastructure investment pledges made but not delivered to the Duterte administration.

For Duterte's successor, that meant it was time for the Philippines to draw a hard new line and fundamentally reset relations. In that direction, Marcos Jr greenlighted the expansion of defense cooperation with traditional allies as well as more assertive patrols by Philippine maritime forces.

These moves, the president appears to believe, allow him to deal diplomatically with China from a comparative position of strength.

For China, however, the Philippines is flirting with armed conflict by engaging in what sees as overtly provocative actions.

Those include Manila's plans to fortify its de facto maritime military bases reaching from the Second Thomas Shoal to Thitu Island and the increasing frequency and scope of joint maritime drills with Western powers in the South China Sea.

Now and perhaps most crucially, Beijing is closely monitoring Manila's emerging new strategic posture on Taiwan. The Marcos Jr administration has so far sent mixed signals on whether it will grant US access to prized Philippine bases near Taiwan's southern shores.

But given Beijing's rising preparations for possible kinetic action against the self-ruling island, it's clearly in no mood for Manila's strategic reorientation toward the West and its regional allies.

By all indications, vigorous debates are underway in China on how to dissuade the Philippines from its current course, with some experts like Wu calling for a more decisive and coercive response.

Wary of China's immense military superiority, the Philippines is leaning into an expanding network of strategic partners who share similar threat perceptions about the Asian superpower.

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Big guns wanted

Coincident with emerging as one of the region's fastest-growing economies, the Philippines is also becoming a major defense market. The US will deliver three new C-130J-30 Super Hercules airlifters worth $400 million between July 2026 and January 2027.

Ongoing negotiations are also underway for the potential sale of American F16 fighter jets to the Philippine Air Force, though they have reportedly hit a snag over price issues .

Manila is also reportedly considering alternative European options, most notably from Sweden, which is offering more affordable alternatives such as the Saab Jas-39 Gripen multirole fighter.

The French, Spanish and South Koreans, meanwhile, are offering multi-billion submarine deals. The Philippine Navy has indicated its preference for up to three submarines, which, according to military experts could be a game changer in shifting the heavily lopsided regional naval balance of power.

“Three is the magic number...one [submarine] in operation, one in training and one in refit or maintenance,” Ian Storey, a leading maritime security expert, told the media .

Meanwhile, a large delegation of Indian defense companies including Mahindra Emirates Vehicle Armouring, Bharat Dynamics Ltd, Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd, DCM Shriram Industries Ltd, and MKU Ltd recently visited Manila for the inaugural India-Philippines defense industry seminar.

“We have announced our intent to offer a soft loan for defense procurements and this could also cover activities that would eventually extend some sort of joint industrial activity,” Indian Ambassador Shambhu Kumaran said on the sidelines of the defense industry seminar in Manila on February 16.

“India's unique selling proposition is that we are able to bring cutting-edge technology at competitive prices,” the diplomat said.

Follow Richard Javad Heydarian on X at @Richeydarian

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