still, the jmod's 2023–27 budget plan is 60% higher than the 2018–22 spending plan. as a country that historically spent roughly 1% of its gdp on defense and resisted calls to spend more, tokyo's commitment to such a considerable increase marks a departure from the past.
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highlights from these new documents - such as japan's acquisition of
counterstrike capabilities
and a substantial defense spending increase - continue to grab news headlines. but
funding remains
a thorny issue. the liberal democratic party (ldp)–komeito ruling coalition has been working on fiscal measures that will enable tokyo to follow through on its defense spending commitments.
in december 2022, based on the ldp–komeito's approved outline , the ministry of finance included 'tax measures to secure financial resources for strengthening defense capabilities' in its seven-point 2023 tax reform proposal . these are incremental increases in the corporate, income and tobacco taxes proposed to start after 2024.
japan's maritime self defense forces helicopter carrier izumo sails out from yokosuka base. photo: afp
the ldp-led ruling coalition
introduced
the defence fiscal resource bill to the national diet in february 2023. the bill provides the fiscal framework through which the japanese government will fund the defense spending increase - which is essentially a mixed package of the establishment of the defense enhancement fund and the incremental phased increase of corporate, personal income and tobacco taxes.
the bill passed the house of representatives on may 23, 2023, and following the approval by the house of councillors on june 16, 2023 became a law.
the opposition parties, including the constitutional democratic party, vowed to block the bill. but the large majority that the ldp–komeito ruling coalition enjoys in both houses of the diet, with the additional support from the conservative japan innovation party, cleared the way for the passage of the bill.
even though kishida won the legislative battle, whether the public will support it remains highly questionable.
in fairness, the majority of the japanese public supported a defense spending increase. polls taken by media outlets across the ideological spectrum throughout 2022 consistently show that the public mostly supports a defense spending increase.
three separate media polls taken in
april ,
october
and
december 2022
show that over half of the respondents supported a defense spending increase. even a
may 2022
poll by the mainichi shimbun, known for its criticism of expansive defense policy, shows 76% public support for such an increase.
but the public
resisted
funding this defense spending increase through higher taxes. public resistance against tax increases began showing in late 2022. two polls in
november
and
december 2022
showed that over 60% of the public disapproves of such a tax hike.
this public pushback against the defense tax increase continues in 2023. polls in
january
and
february 2023
showed 71% and 64% of the respondents were against increasing tax to fund defense budget increase.
a
may 7, 2023
public opinion poll revealed that nearly 90% of the respondents are concerned about a military crisis in taiwan and over 60% support japan acquiring counterstrike capabilities. but 80% are opposed to financing defense spending through tax increases.
plus, kishida might have missed the chance to gain public support for the defense tax hike by bringing the case to the public. two separate polls conducted in january 2023 indicated that 78 % and 63 % of the respondents thought that kishida should dissolve the lower house and call an election before implementing the defense tax hike.
japanese prime minister fumio kishida rides on a japan ground self-defense force type 10 tank during a review at jgsdf camp asaka in tokyo on november 27, 2021. photo: jiji
but with his
approval rating
just recovering to
45 % following a successful g7 summit in hiroshima, kishida decided not to dissolve the lower house, at least in the near future.
the japanese public seems already to be reacting negatively to kishida's choice. the june 17–18 poll conducted by the
kyodo news
shows that kishida's approval rating has dropped by over 6 points to 40.8%.
while the defense-related tax hike was not the only reason for the decline in his approval rating, it indicates that kishida's tactics of steamrolling widespread public resistance with the power of majority might work in the short-term, but may undermine the sustainability of japan's increased defense spending over time.
yuki tatsumi is senior fellow, co-director of the east asia program and director of the japan program at the stimson center, washington, dc.
this article was originally published by east asia forum and is republished under a creative commons license.
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