even before the trip, united states officials were attempting to manage expectations. they warned not to expect much in terms of concrete outcomes. and they were right on that score.
blinken's statements accurately stated the us position on taiwan and the broader“one-china” policy .
but one ought to consider the context in which they were said.
blinken noted that he hoped the chinese would show a cooperative attitude in dealing with it.
the optics for the meeting with xi were terrible as well – no matter what blinken might have said in private.
appearances matter and blinken looked timid. whichever foreign service officer agreed to the meeting arrangements and seating configuration – with xi looking like a ceo at the head of the table instructing his junior executives – should be encouraged to find other work.
latest stories the india-china game in the united states breaking the us-china logjam china is raring to go with 3rd-generation chips
so when secretary blinken used the line“the us does not support taiwan independence” it's possible that all the
chinese communists
heard is:“the us does not support taiwan very much.”
us secretary of state antony blinken meets with china's president xi jinping at the great hall of the people in beijing on june 19, 2023. leah mills / pool it's china's intimidation that's the issue one wishes us officials would not overemphasize the“taiwan independence” language - which really isn't a huge risk anyway. almost nobody – and nobody who matters – in taiwan is calling for independence. warning off taiwan has become a rote american statement intended to placate the chinese communists. all it does is suggest a lack of resolve.
us government officials should focus instead on the
prc 's daily physical, political and
psychological intimidation
of taiwan and our nearby allies, japan and the
philippines ,as well. that's where the really dangerous behavior is taking place.
one imagines a future scenario in which the prc attacks taiwan (or even puts on a tight blockade) and says something like:
“independence forces on taiwan are planning to declare independence.
this is our red line and our core interest.
we have no choice but to prevent taiwan's secession.
and you americans have said you agree with us.
you said you do not support taiwan's independence. and you've said it many times.
so america: stand back. this is a domestic matter. if you don't, it will be
nuclear war .”
us president joe biden speaks at the white house on june 15. (© getty via kyodo) factoring in biden's langauge my acquaintance, also noting that president
joe biden
had previously (and more than once) stated that the us would defend taiwan in case of a
chinese invasion , asked me if blinken's statement contradicts that.
not according to a precise reading of blinken's language.
and i think there are many, if not most, people in the us government who genuinely want to defend taiwan.
but the prc just might smell confusion. and the chinese might see an administration that is so invested in legalisms and the purposely vague language of the“one-china” policy that it will be unable or unwilling to respond forcefully when beijing calls its bluff.
the prc anticipates that the
us state department 's likely response to a chinese move against taiwan will be as follows:“we had an agreement with the
people's republic of china
that any change to the status quo would be made 'peacefully'.
we are deeply concerned with this irresponsible behavior and are monitoring the situation.”
how the rest of the region would read it meanwhile, taiwan goes under and asia turns red overnight – as regional nations note:
the us military couldn't protect taiwan. us economic and financial power couldn't prevent it. and us nuclear weapons couldn't either.
so cut the best deal you can with beijing.
japan
and
australia
might try to hold out, but they'll be rattled, too, and will know their time will come.
us president joe biden, australia's prime minister anthony albanese, japan's prime minister fumio kishida and india's prime minister narendra modi hold a quad meeting on the sidelines of the g7 summit in hiroshima, may 20, 2023. photo: youtube / prime minister narendra modi's office
blinken's visit was a net loss for the united states – confusing our friends as much as it encouraged beijing. it is what too often happens when americans are too eager to“engage.”
if our contest with china was a debating society or a battle of essays in
foreign affairs
or a similar journal, we'd probably win.
if it's a battle of power and will and clear-cut objectives, the chinese communists might like their chances.
grant newsham is a retired us marine officer and former us diplomat. he is the author of the book
when china attacks: a warning to america . this article was originally published by japan forward . asia times is republishing it with permission.
like this:like loading... related