NZD/USD Forecast: Continues Overall Consolidation

(MENAFN- Daily Forex)
  • The nzd/usd has rallied a bit during the trading session on Tuesday as we continue to see a lot of choppy behavior.
  • The New Zealand dollar is currently hanging around the 0.6150 level, and of course has paid close attention to the 0.62 level.
  • Just above the 0.62 level, we have the 200-Day EMA coming into the picture, which of course is an indicator that a lot of people pay close attention to.
  • In fact, a lot of traders will use this to determine the overall trend, so if we are below it, we are still technically in a downtrend.

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The 0.61 level underneath is starting to offer support, so if we were to break down below there is likely that we could go down to the 0.60 level. Just below the 0.60 level, we have the 50-Day ema coming into the picture and rising. We are currently stuck between the 200-Day EMA and the 50-Day EMA, which typically means that the market is getting ready to make a bigger move, as we squeeze between these 2 areas. If we do break out of this area, the market will more likely than not continue to go much higher or lower, depending on which direction we go.Waiting for the RBNZ

On a breakdown, it would be a continuation of the overall negative trend, perhaps ending the market down to the 0.60.58 level. The 0.58 level has previously been resistant, and now is going to be supported, perhaps even a target. On the other hand, if we were to turn around a break above the 200-Day EMA, it opens the possibility of a move to the 0.64 level, where you would expect to see a lot of resistance. Anything above there could send the New Zealand dollar much higher.

Keep in mind that overnight there will be an RBNZ interest rate statement, which of course will have a major influence on where the New Zealand dollar goes for a bigger move. A lot of different estimates are out there, but right now the central bank is expected to raise rates between 50 and 75 basis points. The biggest driver will more likely than not end up being the statement and any press conference afterward, as the hike is probably already baked into the price. Forward expectations will continue to be parsed.

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