(MENAFNEditorial)
Core Views
* Cote d'Ivoire's economy will continue upon its rapid growth trajectory in 2015 enjoying impressive real growth of 9.4%. This is an upward revision from our previous projection of an 8.6% expansion over the year thanks to a ramp-up in government spending - which will be supported by the launch of a new eurobond in February 2015 - and recently released quarterly data which shows that this has been translating into strong growth. Bipartisan support will ensure incumbent President Allassane Outtara's victory in October elections and with it policy continuity.
* Inflation in the eight UEMOA countries - which include Cote d'Ivoire - will remain sedate through 2015 thanks to benign food price growth and lower oil prices. Robust economic growth will keep the bloc from deflationary territory however.
* In 2015 we forecast that Cote d'Ivoire's current account deficit will widen to the equivalent of 5.6% of GDP from an estimated 4.0% in 2014. To 2019 we forecast that the deficit will average 6.2% annually compared to an average of just 1.3% over the previous five years. Investment into infrastructure and industry coupled with declining export revenues will see the once considerable trade surplus which had previously offset negative services and income balances steadily decline.
* A Ouattara victory is all but assured in Cote d'Ivoire's October 2015 elections which will mean a continuance of the pro-business reforms enacted under his first administration. This is a net positive for investment despite the fact that a lack of legitimacy - due to the opposition's failure to properly engage with the electoral process - will give rise to isolated instances of violence.
Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/987512_cote_divoire_country_risk.aspx?afid=101
Major Forecast Changes:
Real GDP growth forecast has been revised up from 8.6% to 9.4% thanks to a ramp-up in government spending.
Key Risks To Outlook:
* Our broad outlook is dependent on the maintenance of a stable political situation that allows for significant levels of foreign...
The Cote d'Ivoire Country Risk Report helps businesses with market assessment strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Cote d`Ivoire. It is an essential tool for CEOs Chairmen Finance Directors/CFOs Managing Directors Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.
An influential new analysis of Cote d`Ivoire's economic political and financial prospects through end-2019 just published by award-winning forecasters Business Monitor International (BMI).
Key Uses
* Forecast the pace and stability of Cote d`Ivoire's economic and industry growth through end-2019.
* Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends to facilitate risk mitigation.
* Assess the critical shortcomings of the operating environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
* Contextualise Cote d`Ivoire's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Index system.
* Evaluate external threats to doing business in Cote d`Ivoire including currency volatility the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.
The Cote d'Ivoire Country Risk Report by Business Monitor International (BMI) includes three major sections: Economic Outlook Political Outlook and Operational Risk.
Economic Outlook:
How will the Cote d`Ivoire' economic policy-making and performance impact on corporate profitability over 2015-2019?
BMI provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for Cote d`Ivoire through end-2019 for more than 50 economic and key industry indicators. We evaluate growth and also forecast the impact of economic management.
Economic Outlook Contents
The Cote d'Ivoire Country Risk Report features BMI's forecasts with supporting analysis for 2015 through to end-2019 set against government views and BMI's evaluation of global and regional prospects.
Key Areas Covered:
Data:
* Full 10-year forecasts with data - for key macroeconomic variables including GDP (real growth and per capita) population inflation current account balance and the exchange rate.
* BMI's comprehensive Risk Index system - rates each country worldwide for economic and political risk and rates the business environment within a global and regional context.
Written Analysis:
* Economic Activity - real GDP growth employment inflation consumption (retail sales and confidence).
* Balance of Payments - trade and investment current and capital account.
* Monetary Policy - interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates) and inflation (producer price and consumer price).
* Exchange Rate Policy - currency controls foreign investment flows exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves.
* Fiscal Policy - macroeconomic strategy and policies government finance and tax reforms.
* Foreign Direct Investment - approvals inflows and climate.
* External Debt - debt profile (short and long-term plus public and private sector obligations).
* Global Assumptions - forecasts for each year to end-2019 covering: major commodities growth in key regions inflation and interest and exchange rates in the United States Japan China and the eurozone.
Key Benefits
* Rely upon BMI's 100% independent forecast scenarios for Cote d`Ivoire and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
* Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic database on Cote d`Ivoire sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector government and multilateral contacts.
* Gain key insights into the current and future direction of government economic policy which could significantly affect your company's business prospects from BMI's team of analysts and economists.
Political Outlook:
What are the political risks to doing business in Cote d`Ivoire over the next 5-years?
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