Ibovespa Sinks 2.5% With Only Six Stocks Closing Green

(MENAFN- The Rio Times) Rio Times - B3/Ibovespa Daily Report · Covering March 12 Session · Published March 13, 2026

Ibovespa 179,284.49 −2.55% USD/BRL R$ 5.2423 +1.61% Brent Crude $100.46 +9.22% Selic Rate 15.00% Next: Mar 18 The Big Three 1 Ibovespa sheds 4,684 points as Iran escalation pushes Brent above $100. The index lost 2.55% in a broad-based rout driven by the new Iranian supreme leader's vow to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed. Only six of the 85 constituents finished in positive territory, with Petrobras the sole blue-chip survivor thanks to surging crude prices. 2 IPCA surprises to the upside at 0.70%, dimming prospects for an aggressive Copom cut. February inflation came in above consensus, driven by education costs, pushing the 12-month reading to 3.81%. Markets now favor a smaller 25 bp Selic reduction to 14.75% at next week's meeting rather than the previously hoped 50 bp move. 3 Government zeroes PIS/Cofins on diesel and slaps 12% export tax on crude oil. The emergency package cuts R$ 0.64 per liter at refineries with an estimated R$ 30 billion fiscal cost, offset by the petroleum export levy and higher oil-related tax receipts. Analysts at Warren and Análise Econômica view the net fiscal impact as roughly neutral. 01 Session Data

Metric	Value	Change
Ibovespa Close	179,284.49	−2.55%
Session High	183,991.88	-
Session Low	178,494.99	-
Volume	R$ 35.46 bn	-
USD/BRL	R$ 5.2423	+1.61%
DXY	99.73	+0.50%
VIX	26.48	+9.29%
Brent Crude	$100.46	+9.22%
Gold	$5,127	−0.30%
Iron Ore	$101.50	−0.80%
US 10-Year	4.26%	+4 bps
S&P 500	6,672.62	−1.52%

Key Movers

Ticker	Close (R$)	Change
PETR3 (Petrobras ON)	49.65	+1.45%
PETR4 (Petrobras PN)	45.00	+0.45%
SLCE3 (SLC Agrícola)	-	positive
PRIO3 (Prio)	-	positive
ITUB4 (Itaú)	-	−2.73%
YDUQ3 (Yduqs)	-	−15.00%

02 Market Commentary

The Ibovespa suffered its second consecutive session of losses exceeding two percent on Thursday, shedding 4,684 points as Iran's new supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei declared the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed as a pressure tool against Washington. Brent crude settled above $100 per barrel for the first time since August 2022, with the 9.2% single-day surge overwhelming a record 400-million-barrel IEA reserve release announced the previous day. The index touched an intraday low of 178,495 points before paring a fraction of losses into the close. This is part of The Rio Times' daily coverage of B3 and Latin American financial markets.

Only six of the 85 constituents managed to close in the green, all tied to oil or agribusiness. Petrobras ON gained 1.45% to R$ 49.65 and Petrobras PN rose 0.45% to R$ 45.00 as the state oil company's exposure to crude prices offset uncertainty around the government's new diesel subsidy package and the 12% petroleum export tax. Prio and SLC Agrícola also climbed, while the broader market saw indiscriminate selling across banks, retailers, and education names.

The Rio Times - Ibovespa trading session data, March 12, 2026.

Yduqs led losses with a 15% plunge following its fourth-quarter 2025 earnings report, while Itaú fell 2.73%, dragging the banking sector lower. Earnings season continued with results from Cogna, Vibra, CSN Mineração, and Brava Energia also crossing the tape. The DI futures curve opened sharply, with contracts across tenors rising as much as 25 basis points, reflecting both the hotter IPCA reading and the fuel-related fiscal concerns.

On the macro front, the government moved to shield consumers from the oil shock by zeroing PIS/Cofins taxes on diesel and establishing a subsidy mechanism through the ANP, cutting R$ 0.64 per liter at the refinery gate. The package carries a gross fiscal cost of R$ 30 billion, but analysts at Warren and the Análise Econômica consultancy view the net impact as approximately neutral given offsetting revenues from the export levy and higher oil-related tax collection. The IPCA's 0.70% monthly reading - driven primarily by education costs - pushed 12-month inflation to 3.81% and strengthened the case for a smaller 25 bp Selic cut at next week's Copom meeting.

03 Technical Analysis Daily (1D)

The Ibovespa closed at 179,284 with a bearish engulfing candle that opened near the session high and closed near the low, reflecting persistent selling pressure throughout the day. The MACD histogram has deepened to −1,500.55, with the signal lines at 1,980.55 and 480.00 respectively, confirming accelerating bearish momentum. The RSI has fallen to 43.61 on its signal line, dropping below the neutral 50 threshold for the first time since mid-January, while the fast RSI reads 55.86.

Price remains above the Ichimoku cloud but is testing the lower boundary of the Bollinger Band structure. The 200-day simple moving average sits far below at 152,512, providing a structural floor that is unlikely to be tested in the near term. The key technical concern is the MACD divergence that has been building since late February, when price peaked near 192,624 while momentum indicators began rolling over. Two consecutive 2.5%+ selloffs have erased 9,432 points in four sessions.

Volume at R$ 35.46 billion was elevated relative to the 20-day average, confirming the move was driven by institutional participation rather than thin liquidity. The intraday range of 5,497 points (183,992 to 178,495) was the widest since the initial Iran shock on March 3, signaling heightened volatility that is likely to persist ahead of next week's Copom decision.

Level	Points	Reference
Resistance 3	184,502	Upper Bollinger Band
Resistance 2	183,874	Tenkan-sen
Resistance 1	182,803	Kijun-sen
Close	179,284	March 12 close
Support 1	178,318	Mid-Bollinger Band
Support 2	177,937	Senkou Span A
Support 3	175,384	Lower Bollinger Band

04 Forward Look Copom Decision (March 18)

The Central Bank is expected to begin its easing cycle with a 25 bp cut to 14.75%, though Thursday's hot IPCA print has narrowed the odds of a more aggressive 50 bp move. The accompanying statement's language on forward guidance will be the main event, particularly any reference to oil-driven inflation risks that could signal a shallower easing path than previously anticipated.

Iran and Oil Supply

Brent crude at $100 represents a new macro regime for Brazilian equities. Energy Secretary Wright told CNBC the U.S. Navy is not yet ready to escort tankers through Hormuz but expects capability by month's end. Any credible de-escalation signal - particularly a reopening of the strait - would trigger a sharp reversal in risk assets, though positioning for that outcome remains speculative.

Fed Rate Path

Markets have pushed the expected first Fed cut from July to December, with only a 55% probability priced for the final meeting of 2026. Some desks are now pricing a potential rate hike in September. The FOMC meets next week and is expected to hold rates at 3.50–3.75%, but the updated dot plot will be closely watched for any upward revisions to the inflation outlook.

Earnings Season

The fourth-quarter reporting cycle continues with results from major names still pending. Thursday's Yduqs rout (−15%) and ongoing digestion of Petrobras 4T25 numbers demonstrate that company-specific catalysts can amplify the macro-driven volatility. The fuel subsidy package adds complexity to Petrobras valuation as investors assess the net impact of the diesel subsidy versus the export tax on the company's free cash flow.

Verdict

Bias: BEARISH

The Ibovespa has now lost more than 13,000 points from its February peak of 192,624 in just three weeks, erasing nearly seven percent of its value. The combination of $100 oil, hotter-than-expected inflation, and a government scrambling to contain fuel costs has upended the bullish consensus that defined the first two months of 2026. The technical picture confirms the deterioration: RSI below 50, MACD histogram deepening, and price approaching the Ichimoku cloud support band.

The domestic catalyst next week is the Copom decision on March 18. A 25 bp cut to 14.75% is now the base case, but the hot IPCA reading and oil shock create a scenario where even that modest move may not be enough to anchor expectations. The DI curve's 25 bp parallel shift higher on Thursday shows fixed-income markets are already repricing the easing path.

For the Ibovespa, the 177,937–178,318 support zone represents the last line of defense before a test of the 175,000 area. A break below 175,384 would take the index to levels not seen since early January, when the post-election rally was still building. The bull case requires either a credible Hormuz resolution or an aggressive Copom signal that domestic policy can offset the external shock. Neither is the base case today.

USD/BRL Development

The Brazilian real suffered its steepest single-day depreciation in two weeks on Thursday, with USD/BRL rising 1.61% to close at R$ 5.2423. The move was driven primarily by the global dollar bid as the DXY extended its rally to a fourth consecutive session, hitting two-month highs near 99.73 on safe-haven demand linked to the Iran crisis. The real's weakness was compounded by the surprise IPCA overshoot, which complicated the Copom outlook and dented carry-trade appeal.

The government's fuel package had a mixed effect on the currency. While the PIS/Cofins waiver and diesel subsidy were viewed as inflationary shock absorbers, the R$ 30 billion fiscal cost and the reimposition of petroleum export taxes introduced fresh uncertainty about Brazil's fiscal trajectory. The 12% export levy, in particular, triggered concerns about the investment climate for offshore oil projects, though analysts at Ativa Investimentos argued the net effect on Petrobras could be modest given the offsetting diesel pricing buffer.

On the rates front, the CME FedWatch tool showed traders repricing the first Fed cut from September - where it sat in the morning - all the way to December by session's end, with only a 55.2% probability. For Brazil, the widening rate differential (Selic at 15% versus Fed funds at 3.50–3.75%) should theoretically support the real, but in a risk-off environment dominated by geopolitical fear, carry math takes a back seat to capital flight. The real has now surrendered roughly 50 basis points of the year-to-date gains it had accumulated through mid-February.

This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.

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