India's Strategic Autonomy Has Become A Liability

At the same time, economic engagement with China has continued despite repeated border crises, pushing India's bilateral trade deficit past US$100 billion and reinforcing structural dependencies in critical sectors such as electronics, pharmaceuticals and renewable energy.

The consequence is a widening gap between cost and return. Russia remains a crucial defense supplier, yet delays in delivery and maintenance-exacerbated by its own wartime constraints-have imposed operational and financial burdens on India's armed forces.

Meanwhile, deeper cooperation with the US and its partners has delivered valuable signaling and interoperability, but without the level of technology access or policy accommodation that full allies typically receive. India finds itself described as an indispensable partner, but treated as a conditional one.

Economic exposure mirrors this strategic asymmetry. Dependence on Chinese intermediate goods has persisted despite political confrontation, leaving India vulnerable to supply disruptions even as Beijing consolidates its manufacturing dominance.

Partial military disengagements along the Line of Actual Control have reduced immediate friction, but they have not altered the underlying balance of advantage, nor produced reciprocal restraint on China's infrastructure buildup in disputed areas. Engagement continues, leverage does not.

Diplomatically, strategic autonomy has also begun to alienate without appeasing. India's cautious positioning on major global conflicts has drawn criticism from Western partners while failing to extract meaningful concessions in return, whether on market access, sanctions relief or defense technology.

Multilateral forums amplify India's voice, but they do not automatically translate into material gains. The risk is that autonomy becomes performative rather than productive. The central problem is not autonomy itself, but the absence of prioritization. Flexibility only creates advantage when it is backed by credible alternatives.

At present, India's options are constrained by legacy dependencies and unresolved vulnerabilities. Economic mass has not yet been converted into bargaining power, and strategic partnerships have not been translated into enforceable commitments.