Tuesday, 02 January 2024 12:17 GMT

Trump's Treasury Is Quietly Rewiring Global Finance


(MENAFN- The Arabian Post)

Stablecoins have moved from the fringe of digital finance to the centre of American geopolitical strategy with astonishing speed.

A year ago, many analysts still dismissed them as an experiment, an irritant or a regulatory problem. Today they sit at the heart of a much bigger financial vision inside Washington.

The Trump administration, I now believe, is using stablecoins as a new mechanism to strengthen the dollar's international pull and to push back against efforts to dilute America's monetary influence.

This is not a theoretical debate. Issuers of dollar-based stablecoins now hold vast quantities of US Treasuries. Their combined positions exceed the holdings of several established sovereign investors.

That fact alone signals a profound change in how global liquidity is flowing. It means private digital-asset firms have become major participants in the market that underpins America's fiscal power, and their role is expanding rapidly.

The White House understands the strategic advantage this creates. Dollar-linked stablecoins circulate in regions where accessing traditional dollar instruments is difficult or politically constrained.

They give individuals and businesses in emerging markets a reliable digital gateway to the dollar without relying on local banks or fragile domestic currencies. This matters because every additional user adopting a dollar-denominated stablecoin reinforces the dollar's relevance at a time when rival nations are trying to shift global settlement into alternative systems.

I see this dynamic strengthening, not weakening. Rising adoption of stablecoins outside the United States pulls more international savings into dollar assets. It also deepens foreign demand for short-dated US government debt because any regulated issuer must hold high-quality, liquid reserves.

As the sector grows, so does the structural bid for Treasuries. This is why the Treasury Secretary is giving the market so much attention. The inflows are already material and may become systemically significant.

The regulatory framework recently adopted by Congress signals how seriously Washington is approaching this transition. Mandating full reserve backing with liquid assets is not a trivial step. It hardwires the stablecoin market into the US government's funding architecture.

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Also, it ensures that these digital instruments remain anchored to the credibility of the dollar rather than drifting toward experimental collateral. The Treasury's task now is to implement clear rules that formalise this responsibility while encouraging the next wave of adoption.

Some industry voices have pushed for yield-bearing stablecoins. I do not expect the administration to support this. Banks are opposed because such products could drain deposits, and policymakers recognise the systemic implications.

The more likely outcome is a model that keeps stablecoins simple, safe and fully backed. That structure protects the banking system while preserving the geopolitical advantages that come from widespread digital-dollar use.

The economic consequences could be profound. If global demand for dollar stablecoins accelerates, issuers will need increasingly large reserves. In practice, that means more Treasuries flowing into digital-asset balance sheets.

Analysts across the industry have suggested that this could place downward pressure on yields in a way that mirrors periods of aggressive asset purchases by the Federal Reserve. I consider that plausible. The scale of expected growth is enormous and the reserve requirements are strict. The combination has the potential to shift long-term financing conditions inside the US.

These forces will not develop in isolation. They interact with a broader contest over the future of global savings. Some central bankers worry that rising debt burdens in advanced economies are creating a glut of sovereign bonds that will push borrowing costs higher.

It's a scenario may well materialize outside the United States. Within America, stablecoin-driven demand for Treasuries could offset part of that pressure. If global investors channel savings into digital dollars, the outcome will look very different from the rest of the world's trajectory.

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This creates challenges for Europe and for emerging markets. A surge in stablecoin adoption would shift financial power further toward Washington. It could reduce demand for non-US government bonds and channel domestic savings into instruments beyond the reach of local authorities.

Some economists argue that this amounts to a privatised form of seigniorage, where digital issuers capture value that once flowed to sovereigns. Others worry about the implications for tax collection and financial supervision. These concerns are valid and deserve serious debate.

For investors, the message is clear. The digital-dollar system is expanding fast, and it is being encouraged by policymakers who see strategic advantage in its rise. Stablecoins are no longer simply a convenience for traders or a tool for crypto exchanges.

They're becoming an international distribution channel for the dollar itself. Their ability to operate across borders with speed and scale gives the US a monetary reach that traditional banking channels cannot match.

The administration recognizes this. It sees stablecoins as a way to counter de-dollarisation narratives, reinforce the Treasury market and entrench the dollar in the daily financial lives of millions of people who have never interacted with an American bank. Investors who overlook this shift will misread how the next phase of global finance is taking shape.

I believe we are entering a period in which digital-dollar instruments play an increasingly decisive role in the structure of global liquidity. The consequences will reach far beyond the crypto sector. They'll influence interest rates, capital flows, sovereign funding and geopolitical leverage.

Stablecoins are, I believe, becoming a central part of America's financial strategy. They deserve far more attention than they're currently receiving.

Nigel Green is deVere CEO and Founder

Also published on Medium.

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