Srinagar- As the Budgam segment heads to polls on November 11, political activity has intensified across villages, with the contest shaping up as a direct fight between the National Conference (NC) and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP)-both fielding candidates from the influential Shia community.

On Friday, the otherwise quiet Soibugh village turned lively as youngsters climbed atop a vehicle, chanting slogans in support of independent candidate Sameer Ahmad.“Why should we vote for outsiders? Why not for our local candidate?” shouted a supporter, echoing the sentiment of local representation that has become a recurring theme in this campaign.

Moments later, the same square was taken over by BJP workers, mocking the NC-led government over its“unmet” 2024 election promises. Their rhythmic slogans -“Naukri, Naukri – Ek Lakh Naukri! Unit, Unit – 200 Soo Unit! Cylinder, Cylinder – 12 Cylinder!” - highlighted voter frustration over employment, electricity, and smart meters. Earlier that day, Chief Minister Omar Abdullah had addressed a rally at the same spot, followed by Awami Ittehad Party (AIP) leaders waiting for their turn.

The main battle, however, is between NC's Aga Mehmood and PDP's Aga Muntazir Mehdi, both hailing from rival factions of Agha dynasty of Budgam. While Mehmood, a former minister, represents one faction of Anjuman-e-Sharie Shiayan, Muntazir, son of Aga Syed Hassan, leads the rival faction. Their followers - Muhammadis and Mustafais - have historically influenced Budgam's political outcomes, with Mustafais outnumbering Muhammadis.

Adding intrigue to the contest is Srinagar MP Aga Ruhullah Mehdi, a key NC leader with deep roots in Budgam. Ruhullah, who has distanced himself from active campaigning, remains at odds with his party on issues like reservation rationalisation. His silence has triggered speculation that a section of his Mustafai support base may tilt towards the PDP.

“Ruhullah's absence has left a vacuum,” said a political observer in Soibugh.“If his followers shift loyalties, it could reshape the final numbers.”

Outside the Shia heartlands, votes are expected to split among independent candidates like Jibran Dar and Muntazir Mohiuddin, AIP-backed Nazir Ahmad Khan, and smaller party candidates including Aga Mohsin (BJP), Deeba Khan (AAP), and Mukthar Dar (Apni Party).

Ground interactions revealed that while NC retains a strong organisational base, public disillusionment over unmet promises and internal rifts could hurt its chances.“NC workers are loyal, but people are unhappy about the lack of jobs and rising electricity costs,” said a group of elderly residents listening to Sameer Ahmad's speech.

In contrast, the PDP, though organisationally weaker, hopes to benefit from the Mustafai vote and floating voters frustrated with traditional parties.

For many voters, however, local governance issues outweigh political symbolism.“I pay Rs 2,100 monthly for electricity,” said Farooq Ahmad Najar, a bread seller from Naraspora.“Jibran Dar met me and promised help - I'll vote for a new face.”

Another voter, Abdul Hamid from Wadwan, voiced frustration over the reservation policy.“I hold an MPhil and PhD in Urdu but was rejected for a typist post. I'm done with politics,” he said, backing Ruhullah's decision to skip the campaign trail.

The campaign narrative across parties has largely revolved around broken promises and past alliances. While the NC targets the PDP over its former ties with the BJP, the PDP and other parties accuse the NC of failing to deliver on its 2024 manifesto.

Leaders like Imran Reza Ansari (Peoples Conference) and Hakim Mohammad Yasin (Peoples Democratic Front), with influence in some pockets of the constituency, could also affect results. Meanwhile, the proscribed Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI) and its splinter Justice and Development group retain pockets of influence but have yet to declare their stance.

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