One pithy aphorism from the great philosopher and theorist of war, Sun Tzu, is:“The art of war is winning without fighting.” This may seem like an oxymoronic idea.

But in the 21st century, it seems that Sun Tzu's dictum can be applied to picture perfection, almost.

First, let me break down the meaning and implications of this aphorism.

Essentially, Sun Tzu seems to suggest that war is a psychological exercise, and that success or failure in battle is decided in the minds of men and women.

This is not to say that actual combat is unnecessary. It is not.

But when the psychological strength of generals and strategists is either depleted or renewed, that is where war begins or ends.

Whether it was the trench warfare of World War I, the total war of World War II, or the quasi-war and containment of the former USSR by the West (led by the US), the material dimensions were important, but the psychological factor remained paramount.

However, one common denominator among these was territory. In other words, territorial gains or losses were central. Has this changed?

To some extent, during the 'roaring nineties,' the heyday of globalization, it was believed that territory was no longer relevant. War was almost passé. What mattered was geo-economics.

In this framework, territory became a mere variable that had outlived its utility as a cause or determinant of war. It was the mindshare of humankind, the“head-to-head competition” between nations in financial and other markets, that had replaced war.

This illusion lost its meaning with the 2014 Crimean War, when a 'revanchist' Russia sought to reincorporate what it believed to be its 'near abroad' back into its fold. While territorial conflicts at the sub-state level continued but were largely managed or transformed, it was the Russian invasion of Ukraine that could be said to mark the reterritorialization of war and conflict.

The essence of why states go to war remains the same, but the form and nature of war seem to have changed. What does this mean?

With remarkable advancements in Information, Technology, and Communications (ICTs), where computing power has given way to Artificial Intelligence, the steam engine or spinning jenny of the Fourth Industrial Revolution in terms of its transformative impact, warfare has changed, even though territory remains central to it.

In the near and distant future, as seen in the recent conflict between India and Pakistan, there is likely to be little direct combat. Wars will increasingly become 'contactless.'

In this schema, the name of the game will be the symbols of war. To use a metaphor, the proverbial drumbeats of war will matter more than the war itself. These drumbeats will take the form of technology and technological superiority. At the heart of both will be demonstration effects.

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