(MENAFN- The Arabian Post) By Nitya Chakraborty

US President Donald Trump's favourite grouping Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD) is in deep crisis due to the strain in India-US relations in 2025 covering both trade and political issues and also a dip in personal ties between Trump and the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi over the role of the US President in stopping the India-Pakistan war for four days in May this year.

As per the original schedule discussed at the February 2025 visit of the Prime Minister Narendra Modi to the White House, it was decided that India would host the QUAD summit in the second half of 2025 and Trump will be visiting India. The US president sources mentioned that candidly, only it was left to the Indian PM to decide on the schedule. Now as on November 7, there is no word from the PMO or the external affairs ministry that the QUAD summit is being held and preparations are being made for that, though in some observations made by the US officials, the indication was given that QUAD remains intact, but even they did not comment whether India would host it.

The QUAD promoted by the US President Donald Trump in 2017 during his first term in office, consists of USA, India, Japan and Australia. The USA looked at this as a sort of body of the Asia-Pacific nations which would serve as a collective mechanism for the four nations to address long term security challenges in Pacific zone. China's name was not officially mentioned at that time in official documents, but it was apparent that the USA was looking to have India as a major partner through QUAD to meet the Chinese security challenge in Asia-Pacific.

That was also the period when Narendra Modi was a good friend of Trump and their personal understanding was of highest order. The China factor was a constant worry for the Indian PM and he gladly agreed to become a part of Trump's Asia-Pacific maritime security strategy against China.. This fondness for QUAD got reinforced after the Galwan valley clashes between India and China in July 2020 leading to the death of 20 Indian soldiers. The QUAD approach continued during the Biden era till 2024 and up to April 2025 during the first two months of Trump's second term regime.

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But for India, the situation drastically changed after April this year and more so from August when the total tariff of 50 per cent on Indian exports to USA took effect hitting adversely Indian exports to the US market. The US imposed sanctions on the Russian companies exporting crude oil to India and this has led to a crisis situation when Indian companies have been compelled to cut supplies from Russia. Despite all the current negotiations to conclude India-US trade deal, nothing concrete has emerged as of now. The stalemate remains in the India-US relations despite occasional talks between Trump and Modi exchanging pleasantries.

US sources indicate that Trump is quite annoyed at India's latest friendship moves with China initiated by Narendra Modi at his meeting with the Chinese President Xi Jinping in SCO meeting in China on August 30 this year. US foreign ministry officials are trying to assess whether there was a policy move to placate China by India, or it was a temporary ploy to send some signal to Trump from an aggrieved Modi. The general view in the White House is that Narendra Modi can never be a friend of China, he will return to Trump fold if the US President gives some concessions to give him an escape route to maintain his image as a protector of nation's interests.

Now the future of QUAD and the possibility of a summit hosted by Narendra Modi depends on the successful conclusion of a India-US trade deal. The Indian negotiating team has given the Indian government the options and the PM has to take a decision. The Indian Government as also private importers of crude oil and petro products are reconciled with drastically reducing imports from Russia has allowed this to take place. But the sources indicate that on the market access of agri products, including dairy which affects Gujarat in a big way, PM is sticking to his earlier position of not allowing any major market access to the US companies. The talks are kept confidential. So it is difficult for others to find out to what extent, the Indian negotiators agreed at the last meeting on India-US trade negotiators.

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That way the QUAD summit in India is linked to the conclusion of the India-US trade deal. If the deal is concluded, President Trump may agree to visit India to participate in the summit if it hosted by Narendra Modi. On the other hand, PM Modi also will not be interested to welcome Trump in a situation of trade stalemate. So in both ways, QUAD can not be held in India if the trade deal is not agreed.

Some US media reports indicate that the US may hold QUAD summit by excluding India and including Philippines. This is aimed at confusing the Indian establishment. Nothing such can take place at the moment as Philippines is no replacement of India which is a major economic and maritime power. QUAD may be expanded by including Philippines and one or two others from ASEAN nations, but for US, India is crucial in making its Asia Pacific strategy work. So, the US will work till the last to persuade Narendra Modi to fall in line. Now it is up to our Prime Minister to show whether India can exercise its own strategic autonomy and decide on its own. (IPA Service )

The article Future Of Trump's Favourite Grouping QUAD Is At Stake Due To India-US Schism appeared first on Latest India news, analysis and reports on Newspack by India Press Agency).

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