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Brazil's Financial Morning Call For November 7, 2025
(MENAFN- The Rio Times) Brazil's financial markets open today riding a historic 12-session Ibovespa winning streak. Petrobras beat Q3 profit estimates despite softer Brent prices and announced fresh dividends.
October's $6.964 billion trade surplus crushed forecasts, driven by a 33% surge in exports to China. The results underscore how Brazil's eastward pivot is providing hard-currency armor against 15% Selic pain and looming U.S. tariff clouds.
Today's Brazilian prints-06:00 AM BRT IGP-DI inflation and 07:00 AM BRT PPI-matter because any upside surprise re-anchors inflation expectations, keeping the BCB hawkish and USD/BRL capped below 5.35; a soft read fuels early-2026 cut bets and Ibovespa momentum.
Key global prints steer the carry trade:
These matter because a Canadian labor miss weakens CAD and spills into EM FX; U-Mich inflation expectations guide Fed pricing; together they dictate whether Petrobras-style resilience keeps foreign inflows bid or shutdown-induced dollar spikes drag BRL lower.
Economic Agenda for November 7, 2025
Brazil
Mexico
United States
Europe
Why These Events Matter: Brazil's wholesale gauges are the only local pulse-cool numbers keep the Ibovespa rocket fueled. Canada jobs and U-Mich set the dollar tempo; miss any and USD/BRL spikes, 15% Selic pain prolongs, and the 12-day streak snaps.
Brazil's Markets Yesterday
São Paulo's B3 delivered a 12th straight gain-the longest streak since 1997-and a ninth record close Thursday, Ibovespa +0.03 % to 153,338.63 (intraday >154,000 for the first time).
C&A +8.45 %, Vamos +8.06 %, Rede D'Or +7.79 % led; Petrobras advanced on earnings anticipation. Volume swelled on foreign inflows cheering Selic discipline and the $6.964 bn October surplus.
Read more
U.S. Markets Yesterday
Wall Street bled red Thursday, November 6. S&P 500 –1.1 % to 6,720.32, Dow –0.8 % to 46,912.30, Nasdaq –1.9 % to 23,053.99. Russell 2000 –1.9 %. Nvidia, Microsoft, Amazon dragged tech lower amid shutdown data void and weak forecasts. YTD: S&P +14.3 %, Nasdaq +19.4 %.
Read more
Mexico's Market Yesterday
The Mexican peso gained 0.6% to 19.48 MXN/USD, buoyed by near-shoring inflows and Banxico carry appeal. The IPC index dipped 0.4% to 58,210 points amid global risk-off and tariff jitters. Consumer staples and telecoms held firm while industrials lagged.
Read more
Argentina's Market Yesterday
Argentina's peso held steady on November 6, 2025, with official rate at 1,475 ARS/USD and blue rate at 1,435 ARS.
S&P Merval Index declined 2.45% to 2,973,544 points amid global equity weakness. Financial and energy sectors led retreat, with top gainers DOME (+38.33%) and losers ROSE (-7.82%).
Read more
Colombia's Market Yesterday
The Colombian peso appreciated 1.35% to 3,783 COP per USD on November 6, 2025.
The MSCI COLCAP Index rose 0.48% to 2,044.41 points, driven by foreign capital inflows and commodity export gains.
Top sectors included industrials, services, and agriculture, with leaders like Grupo de Inversiones Suramericana SA up 4.25%.
Read more
Chile's Market Yesterday
The Chilean peso traded at 943.67 CLP per USD on November 6, 2025, up 0.09% despite prior-day dip.
The S&P IPSA index closed at 9,459.59 points, rising 0.29%, driven by real estate and financial gains. Top performers included Mallplaza (+5.90%) and Parauuco (+4.29%), backed by firm copper prices.
Read more
Commodities
Brazilian Real
The real held firm near 5.36 USD/BRL Thursday, buoyed by Selic vigilance, the $6.964 bn October surplus, and softer dollar on shutdown delays. Senate tax-relief gridlock lingers, but 15 % carry keeps inflows alive.
Read more
Cryptocurrencies
Crypto steadied after a turbulent session; altcoins led cautious gains while Bitcoin defended $100 k amid easing ETF outflows.
Read more
Companies and Market
Industry Outlook
Oil & trade shine-Petrobras Q3 beat, $6.964 bn surplus. Pulp & fintech mixed-Suzano margins squeezed, StoneCo disciplined growth.
Key Developments
October trade surplus $6.964 bn (exports $31.98 bn +9.1 %, imports $25.01 bn –0.8 %); China-bound shipments +33.4 %-vital BRL and fiscal buffer.
Read more
Petrobras Q3 profit tops consensus despite lower Brent; board approves fresh dividends, payout policy intact.
Read more
Suzano Q3 net R$1.96 bn (–39 %), pulp price $524/t (–22 %), stronger BRL bites margins.
Read more
StoneCo Q3 adj. net R$641 m (+13 %), revenue R$3.57 bn (+16 %), 4.72 m payment clients; sells Linx for R$3.05 bn.
Read more
Tenda Q3 profit R$111.7 m (+46.6 %), revenue R$1.1 bn (+24.5 %), adj. EBITDA margin 16.5 %.
Read more
Vivara Q3 net R$216.2 m (+28.5 %), revenue R$1.97 bn (+22.4 %); Méliuz Q3 net loss R$12.3 m (vs profit prev); Banco ABC Q3 net R$278.4 m (+15.2 %).
Read more
Smart Fit Q3 net R$178 m (+42 %), revenue R$1.35 bn (+28 %); Dexco Q3 net R$98 m (–12 %), EBITDA R$512 m; Armac Q3 net R$89 m (+35 %).
Read more
Minerva Q3 net R$312 m (+18 %), revenue R$8.1 bn (+11 %); Aeris Q3 net loss R$45 m; Petz Q3 net R$28 m (+55 %).
Read more
Brava Energia Q3 net R$142 m (+78 %), production +22 %; Vibra Energia Q3 net R$412 m (+5 %); CBA Q3 net R$189 m (–22 %).
Read more
Engie Brasil Q3 net R$1.12 bn (+12 %), EBITDA R$2.1 bn; Totvs Q3 net R$298 m (+19 %); Rede D'Or Q3 net R$1.05 bn (+28 %).
Read more
October's $6.964 billion trade surplus crushed forecasts, driven by a 33% surge in exports to China. The results underscore how Brazil's eastward pivot is providing hard-currency armor against 15% Selic pain and looming U.S. tariff clouds.
Today's Brazilian prints-06:00 AM BRT IGP-DI inflation and 07:00 AM BRT PPI-matter because any upside surprise re-anchors inflation expectations, keeping the BCB hawkish and USD/BRL capped below 5.35; a soft read fuels early-2026 cut bets and Ibovespa momentum.
Key global prints steer the carry trade:
08:30 AM BRT Canada jobs (cons. –5 k, u-rate 7.1%)
10:00 AM BRT U. Michigan sentiment (cons. 53.0)
15:00 PM BRT U.S. consumer credit (cons. $10.4 bn)
These matter because a Canadian labor miss weakens CAD and spills into EM FX; U-Mich inflation expectations guide Fed pricing; together they dictate whether Petrobras-style resilience keeps foreign inflows bid or shutdown-induced dollar spikes drag BRL lower.
Economic Agenda for November 7, 2025
Brazil
06:00 AM BRT – IGP-DI Inflation (Oct) Prev: 0.36%
07:00 AM BRT – PPI (Sep) Prev: –0.20%
Implication: Hot wholesale prices = prolonged 15% Selic, BRL support; cool print = cut bets, equity bid.
Mexico
07:00 AM BRT – CPI (MoM) (Oct) Prev: 0.23%
07:00 AM BRT – Core CPI (MoM) (Oct) Prev: 0.33%
07:00 AM BRT – CPI (YoY) (Oct) Prev: 3.76%
Implication: Sticky core keeps Banxico on hold, peso spill lifts BRL carry.
United States
08:30 AM BRT – Employment Change (Oct) Cons: –5.0 k
08:30 AM BRT – Unemployment Rate (Oct) Cons: 7.1 %
10:00 AM BRT – Michigan Sentiment (Nov) Cons: 53.0
15:00 PM BRT – Consumer Credit (Sep) Cons: $10.4 bn
Implication: Soft labor + sentiment = dollar pause, EM revival.
Europe
02:00 AM BRT – German Exports/Imports (Sep) Act: +1.4 % / +3.1 %
02:45 AM BRT – French Trade Balance (Sep) Act: –6.6 bn
07:00 AM BRT – German Buba Nagel Speaks
Implication: Weak EZ trade curbs commodity demand; Nagel tone sets EUR yield path.
Why These Events Matter: Brazil's wholesale gauges are the only local pulse-cool numbers keep the Ibovespa rocket fueled. Canada jobs and U-Mich set the dollar tempo; miss any and USD/BRL spikes, 15% Selic pain prolongs, and the 12-day streak snaps.
Brazil's Markets Yesterday
São Paulo's B3 delivered a 12th straight gain-the longest streak since 1997-and a ninth record close Thursday, Ibovespa +0.03 % to 153,338.63 (intraday >154,000 for the first time).
C&A +8.45 %, Vamos +8.06 %, Rede D'Or +7.79 % led; Petrobras advanced on earnings anticipation. Volume swelled on foreign inflows cheering Selic discipline and the $6.964 bn October surplus.
Read more
U.S. Markets Yesterday
Wall Street bled red Thursday, November 6. S&P 500 –1.1 % to 6,720.32, Dow –0.8 % to 46,912.30, Nasdaq –1.9 % to 23,053.99. Russell 2000 –1.9 %. Nvidia, Microsoft, Amazon dragged tech lower amid shutdown data void and weak forecasts. YTD: S&P +14.3 %, Nasdaq +19.4 %.
Read more
Mexico's Market Yesterday
The Mexican peso gained 0.6% to 19.48 MXN/USD, buoyed by near-shoring inflows and Banxico carry appeal. The IPC index dipped 0.4% to 58,210 points amid global risk-off and tariff jitters. Consumer staples and telecoms held firm while industrials lagged.
Read more
Argentina's Market Yesterday
Argentina's peso held steady on November 6, 2025, with official rate at 1,475 ARS/USD and blue rate at 1,435 ARS.
S&P Merval Index declined 2.45% to 2,973,544 points amid global equity weakness. Financial and energy sectors led retreat, with top gainers DOME (+38.33%) and losers ROSE (-7.82%).
Read more
Colombia's Market Yesterday
The Colombian peso appreciated 1.35% to 3,783 COP per USD on November 6, 2025.
The MSCI COLCAP Index rose 0.48% to 2,044.41 points, driven by foreign capital inflows and commodity export gains.
Top sectors included industrials, services, and agriculture, with leaders like Grupo de Inversiones Suramericana SA up 4.25%.
Read more
Chile's Market Yesterday
The Chilean peso traded at 943.67 CLP per USD on November 6, 2025, up 0.09% despite prior-day dip.
The S&P IPSA index closed at 9,459.59 points, rising 0.29%, driven by real estate and financial gains. Top performers included Mallplaza (+5.90%) and Parauuco (+4.29%), backed by firm copper prices.
Read more
Commodities
Brazilian Real
The real held firm near 5.36 USD/BRL Thursday, buoyed by Selic vigilance, the $6.964 bn October surplus, and softer dollar on shutdown delays. Senate tax-relief gridlock lingers, but 15 % carry keeps inflows alive.
Read more
Cryptocurrencies
Crypto steadied after a turbulent session; altcoins led cautious gains while Bitcoin defended $100 k amid easing ETF outflows.
Read more
Companies and Market
Industry Outlook
Oil & trade shine-Petrobras Q3 beat, $6.964 bn surplus. Pulp & fintech mixed-Suzano margins squeezed, StoneCo disciplined growth.
Key Developments
October trade surplus $6.964 bn (exports $31.98 bn +9.1 %, imports $25.01 bn –0.8 %); China-bound shipments +33.4 %-vital BRL and fiscal buffer.
Read more
Petrobras Q3 profit tops consensus despite lower Brent; board approves fresh dividends, payout policy intact.
Read more
Suzano Q3 net R$1.96 bn (–39 %), pulp price $524/t (–22 %), stronger BRL bites margins.
Read more
StoneCo Q3 adj. net R$641 m (+13 %), revenue R$3.57 bn (+16 %), 4.72 m payment clients; sells Linx for R$3.05 bn.
Read more
Tenda Q3 profit R$111.7 m (+46.6 %), revenue R$1.1 bn (+24.5 %), adj. EBITDA margin 16.5 %.
Read more
Vivara Q3 net R$216.2 m (+28.5 %), revenue R$1.97 bn (+22.4 %); Méliuz Q3 net loss R$12.3 m (vs profit prev); Banco ABC Q3 net R$278.4 m (+15.2 %).
Read more
Smart Fit Q3 net R$178 m (+42 %), revenue R$1.35 bn (+28 %); Dexco Q3 net R$98 m (–12 %), EBITDA R$512 m; Armac Q3 net R$89 m (+35 %).
Read more
Minerva Q3 net R$312 m (+18 %), revenue R$8.1 bn (+11 %); Aeris Q3 net loss R$45 m; Petz Q3 net R$28 m (+55 %).
Read more
Brava Energia Q3 net R$142 m (+78 %), production +22 %; Vibra Energia Q3 net R$412 m (+5 %); CBA Q3 net R$189 m (–22 %).
Read more
Engie Brasil Q3 net R$1.12 bn (+12 %), EBITDA R$2.1 bn; Totvs Q3 net R$298 m (+19 %); Rede D'Or Q3 net R$1.05 bn (+28 %).
Read more
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