Petrol prices in the UAE could see a small downward adjustment for the month of November 2025 if global crude oil stays on the lower side for the remainder of this month.

The average closing price of Brent was around $65.22 a barrel in October, compared to $67 last month. This means prices could be adjusted downward as the UAE aligns retail fuel prices in line with the global rates at the end of the month.

The UAE will officially announce petrol and diesel rates for November on October 31.

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After trending down most of the days in October and hitting a nearly five-month low due to supply glut fears, global oil prices have been on the rise again over the past couple of days due to the US announcing sanctions on Russian oil companies.

On Friday night, oil variants WTI and Brent were trading at $61.61 and $66.05 a barrel, respectively.

In the UAE, petrol prices were raised in October by seven fils per litre. The Fuel Price Committee priced Super 98, Special 95, and E-Plus 91 at Dh2.77, Dh2.58, and Dh2.71 per litre, respectively.

Due to supply glut fears, Brent prices fell below $61 a barrel this month.

Bank of America earlier projected its $55 price forecast, claiming that steady Asian consumption and Opec+'s supply discipline will keep the market supported. Citigroup, however, sees further downward pressure on crude prices, expecting it to hit $50 if economic momentum and geopolitical risk premiums fade.

Nadir Belbarka, analyst at XMArabia, said crude oil prices remain under pressure, reflecting growing expectations of surplus and weakening global demand.

“Forecasts suggest global supply could rise by over three million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025 and an additional 2.4 million bpd in 2026, while demand growth is projected to slow to just 700,000 bpd annually – creating a bearish supply imbalance and pushing oil to its lowest levels in more than five months. Nonetheless, geopolitical tensions provide a degree of price support. Ongoing concerns about Russian export capacity, Iranian output limits, and vulnerabilities in shipping routes sustain a risk premium,” said Belbarka.

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