(MENAFN- Asia Times) On January 20, 2025, Donald Trump returned not just to the White House, but to the command center of the global economy. He reclaimed power with the promise of an“economic revolution,” vowing to end an order he decried as“unfair.” Now, after the first six months of his new term, the world is grappling with the consequences of this radical doctrine: a bifurcated economy in which traditional markets struggle under the weight of trade wars and uncertainty while new frontiers in the digital economy are conquered at a breathtaking pace.

This report is a detailed autopsy of the plans, performance, and impacts of Trump's economy after the halfway mark in his first year in office – an analysis of how one man's decisions in Washington are rewriting the rules of the game for the entire world.

The Trump agenda – from promise to practice

Trump's economic agenda was a suite of aggressive, disruptive policies designed for a rapid overhaul of the American economy. As of this month, however, his executive report card reveals a mixed picture of decisive victories, conspicuous failures and suspended projects. The following table assesses the implementation staus of his key programs:

Table 1: Assessment of key economic programs of the Trump administration (Jan – Aug 2025)

Program/promise	Details & description	Implementation status (to date)	Success/failure/in progress	Economic impact & macro consequence
Massive job creation	Reshoring manufacturing, growing industrial and service jobs.	Partially implemented (job growth has slowed, falling short of promises).	In progress, but showing signs of gradual failure (unemployment rate has risen).	Stagnation in job growth, increased employer uncertainty, signs of a weakening labor market.
Curbing inflation & cost of living	Controlling prices, lowering energy bills, promising to halve costs.	Contradictory actions (tariff hikes, pressure on the Fed, energy deregulation).	Failure/contradiction; Import-driven inflation from tariffs, slight energy cost relief offset by pricier goods.	Consumer goods inflation persists; public discontent with living costs remains high.
Business tax cuts	Passing new tax reductions, extending previous cuts.	Implemented (a new round of cuts has been approved).	Short-term victory (but at the cost of a ballooning budget deficit).	A brief stimulus for growth, but exacerbates national debt and deficit.
Cryptocurrency revolution & support	Passing the GENIUS Act, creating a Bitcoin reserve, appointing pro-crypto regulators.	Fully implemented.	Resounding victory (explosive growth in Bitcoin and the crypto market).	Explosive market growth, capital attraction, but new risks of bubbles and financial instability.
Ending the war in Ukraine	Promised to end the war in 24 hours through negotiation and ultimatums.	Failed; the war continues, no resolution has been achieved.	Failure	Increased geopolitical risk, negative impact on energy markets and European stability.
Reviving oil & gas production	Lifting restrictions, expanding drilling operations.	Implemented.	Victory (growth in US oil production).	Relative stability in energy prices, but at the cost of environmental damage and a worsening climate crisis.
Immigration control & deportations	Tightening border controls, deporting undocumented immigrants.	Implemented.	In progress (with a dual effect on labor supply).	Reduction in illegal immigration, but labor shortages in key sectors and pressure on the job market.
Revising trade deals & tariffs	Imposing new tariffs, renegotiating with various countries.	Fully implemented (a sweeping wave of tariffs).	Mixed execution/partial failure; markets in turmoil, exports and imports challenged.	Increased import costs hurting consumers, stock market volatility, and a slump in exports.

Trump's six-month record sends a clear message: He excels at executing disruptive, fast-impact policies achievable through executive authority, such as tariffs, deregulation, and shifting the stance of regulatory bodies. The crypto revolution and the trade war are prime examples of his ability to upend the status quo. However, he has been entirely unsuccessful in delivering on promises requiring long-term fiscal discipline or complex congressional consensus, such as debt reduction and the infrastructure plan.

In fact, his successful policies (tax cuts and tariffs) have directly contributed to his failure to control the debt. This pattern reveals that the Trump doctrine is focused more on short-term shock therapy than on long-term stabilization.

US economic scorecard – before, now and next

The effects of this doctrine have rapidly manifested in macroeconomic indicators. The US economy is undergoing a profound transformation in which some metrics have improved while others have severely weakened and nearly everything is in a state of flux and uncertainty.

Table 2: Key US economic indicators (pre- & post-Trump II) and future outlook

Indicator	Jan 2025 (end of Biden term)	Aug 2025 (six months of Trump)	Forecast to June 2026	Trend analysis & key drivers
GDP growth rate	2.5%	1% (declined)	0.5% ~ 1.2% (slow)	Sharp drop, recession is a serious threat; driven by tariffs and reduced investment.
Unemployment rate	3.9%	4.2% (increasing)	4.6% ~ 5% (modest rise)	Rising unemployment; driven by immigration policies and a stagnating job market.
Annual inflation (CPI)	3%	2.5%	2.8% ~ 3.5% (likely increase)	Inflationary pressure from tariffs and labor shortages.
Federal Reserve rate	5.25%	4.5% (decreasing)	3.5% ~ 4% (dovish)	Driven by recession fears and pressure on the housing market.
S&P 500 index	4,500	4,300 (volatile & stagnant)	4,500 ~ 4,700 (high risk)	Unstable market, highly reactive to Trump's policies and news.
Oil price (WTI)	$75	$80 (Volatile)	$70 ~ $90 (crisis-dependent)	UA production increase, geopolitical risk, and OPEC's behavior.
Gold price	$1,900	$3,300 (record-breaking)	$2,800 ~ $3,500 (highly volatile)	Capital flight to safe-haven assets, global crisis sentiment.
Bitcoin	$35,000	$90,000 (explosive)	$100,000 ~ $180,000 (high risk)	Wave of institutional adoption and pro-crypto policies.
Budget deficit/GDP	5-6%	7-8% (increasing)	7% ~ 9% (critical)	Tax cuts and spending hikes, no structural reform.
US national debt	$33 Trillion	$35 trillion (soaring)	$37-39 trillion (by late 2026)	Debt crisis warning, threatening the credibility of Treasury bonds.
Economic policy uncertainty	250	430 (sharp increase)	Will remain high	Driven by high-risk policies, trade wars, and geopolitics.

These numbers tell the story of a deeply fractured and transitioning economy, one in which two parallel worlds are moving at different speeds.

On one side lies the Main Street economy , measured by indicators like unemployment and GDP, which is clearly buckling under the crushing pressure of the new administration's policies. The sharp drop in GDP growth to 1% and the forecast of a prolonged slowdown are not just figures on a page; they are the direct result of the trade war and the surge in the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index (to 430), which are acting like a slow poison on the real economy's foundations.

Sweeping tariffs have disrupted supply chains and raised production costs for American factories. This uncertainty deters employers from hiring and postpones long-term investment. Simultaneously, restrictive immigration policies are limiting the labor supply in key sectors like agriculture and construction, driving up wage pressures.

This means the American middle and working classes are squeezed from both sides. Their job security is threatened by a slowing economy, while their cost of living is rising due to import-driven inflation from tariffs.

On the other side is the digital & speculative economy, which, in a different universe, is experiencing an explosive boom thanks to a tsunami of deregulation. Policies like the passage of the GENIUS Act and the appointment of pro-crypto officials sent a clear signal to Wall Street: The era of strict oversight is over. The result was a historic rally that pushed Bitcoin's price past $90,000 and funneled trillions in new capital into the market.

This boom has created a“Wealth Effect” for a small group of investors, but this wealth is largely on paper, concentrated in volatile assets, and has no direct link to improving infrastructure or boosting productivity in the real economy.

This profound dichotomy is the central challenge facing policymakers. The Federal Reserve is now caught in a historic bind: it must combat inflation driven by tariffs while likely being forced to cut interest rates to prevent a recession caused by those same policies. This contradiction dramatically increases the risk of a major policy error that could tip the economy into a period of stagflation.