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The British Pound screams higher against the trading session on Thursday as the US dollar has gotten hammered. However, it's worth noting that the market has given back about half of the range for the day, and that of course is a very cautionary tale. After all, the market has been very strong, only to fail to hang on to all of that strength. In this environment, it doesn't look like something that I want to trust.
Ultimately, we also have to keep in mind that Friday is of course the Non-Farm Payroll announcement, which is obviously going to cause a lot of noise. After all, there will be some questions as to whether or not the US economy is struggling still, but it's also worth noting that if the jobs number is too strong in the United States, traders may choose to ignore it, as the thought would be that tariffs haven't been felt yet. Other words, the market will read into the report what it wants to, and therefore I think you are setting up for a very chaotic Friday.
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It's obviously very bullish for the British pound at the moment, but the fact that we gave back so much during the day on Thursday does make me a bit cautious. Because of this, think you have to be very cautious in general, due to the fact that I anticipate that the Friday session will be all over the place. The initial reaction to sell the US dollar I suppose makes a certain amount of sense, but if we start to see major problems around the world in global trade, that could very well be positive for the US dollar given enough time.
Keep in mind that bonds got bid during the Thursday session, driving down yields in America. However, there does come a point in time where the interest rate differential doesn't matter anymore, and it's all about trying to protect yourself. I don't know if we're there yet, but it is something that could certainly happen.
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