Germany's Lithuanian Base Complicates Grand US-Russia Deal

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This pact might accordingly be expanded to include Latvia and Estonia, especially after the European Parliament confirmed the centrality of the“Baltic Defense Line” to the bloc's eastern security strategy.

Germany's Lithuanian base could, therefore, pair with its envisaged military buildup and an expanded“military Schengen” to compete more robustly with Poland for influence in the Baltics. That might, in turn, result in Germany subordinating Poland to become the dominant military player in CEE.

Germany's new base in Lithuania doesn't just pose a challenge to Polish interests, even if Warsaw won't openly admit as much. Some Polish officials might even support a more important regional security role for Berlin.

Any hypothetical Russian military action against Lithuania, including if Moscow tries to carve out a so-called“Suwalki Corridor” from Belarus to Kaliningrad, could serve as a tripwire for the EU's de facto leader to become militarily involved in the crisis.

To be sure, Russia hasn't signaled any intent to blitzkrieg through Poland or much weaker Lithuania en route to its Baltic exclave. Nor has anyone cogently suggested why it would do so, considering this scenario would almost certainly lead to a continental conflict and perhaps even World War III if the US becomes involved.

Nevertheless, it still worries many Europeans and thus influences how they formulate policy, with Germany now poised to play a greater role in such discussions, given its direct stakes in deterring or responding to this scenario.

And, finally, the two preceding objectives of Germany competing more robustly with Poland for influence in the Baltics and having a greater say in“Suwalki Corridor” contingency planning are meant to ensure that it's included in any Russian-US deal over Europe's future security architecture.