Is Narendra Modi Ditching Proposed Visit Of President Putin To India At The Prodding Of Trump?

(MENAFN- The Arabian Post) Arabian Post By Nitya Chakraborty

What is happening to the proposed official visit of the Russian President Vladimir Putin to India early this year? Is the Prime Minister Narendra Modi's invitation to the Russian President to visit India given at the BRICS summit at Kazan on October 22 still valid? Doubts are being raised about the visit as more than three months have passed since Indian Prime Minister's invitation to the Russian President, but no confirmation is available from the Indian external affairs Ministry on the dates of the visit, though hectic preparations are on in South Block for organising Narendra Modi's visit to Washington for bilateral meeting with the President Donald Trump in the third or last week of February.

On October 22 last year, Indian Prime Minister invited President Putin for his bilateral visit to India which was due since his last visit in December 2021. President Putin immediately agreed. This invitation was such a relief to the Russian President and his foreign policy advisers that within two weeks, the Russian foreign ministry officially came out twice with the statement about the Russian President's visit to India and how significant it was for the India- Russia relations. They indicated that they were in consultations with the Indian officials about the dates.

As of now, there is no confirmation about the dates from the Indian side though the Russian foreign ministry is anxiously waiting. January has passed. In February, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has a tight programme. Indian PM will be visiting Paris to attend the AI Summit on February 11 and 12. Then this will be followed by his visit to United Arab Emirates on February 13 and 14. After that few days later, Narendra Modi is expected to visit the USA to meet his good friend Donald Trump at the White House.

So far, the first Prime Minister of a foreign country to meet Donald Trump at the While House will be the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. He will be meeting Trump on February 6. If no other head of state meets the U.S. President by February end, our Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will be the second Prime Minister after Netanyahu to get the privilege of meeting Donald Trump. Narendra Modi's supporters and the Modibhaktas in USA will be buoyant at this as this will indicate the importance which the powerful U.S. President is giving to Narendra Modi.

For President Putin, the visit to India in the coming days is being viewed as a big diplomatic triumph in the context of the Ukraine war which is continuing since February 24, 2022. International Criminal Court (ICC) has declared President Putin as a war criminal and there is a arrest warrant against him. He did not even attend the BRICS and G-20 summits held in friendly countries like South Africa and Brazil though the Presidents of both the countries were ready to welcome President Putin despite being ICC signatories.

India is not a signatory to the ICC statute so are United States, China, Russia and Israel. That way India has no ICC obligation relating to President Putin. But the PMO and external ministry officials know that Trump 2.0 administration will be different compared to outgoing president Joe Biden. Trump officials will be stricter in dealing with India's closer bilateral relations with Russia if that affects the American policies as viewed by Trump for South Asia. In fact, the latest interview by Trump's trusted adviser on South Asia Lisa Curtis to an Indian news agency in Washington focuses on how the Trump.2 administration will look at India's relations with Russia gives sufficient indication of how Trump policy on India- Russia relations is expected to shape up.

Despite Indian external affairs minister's bonhomie with the new U.S. secretary of state Marco Rubio, South Asian advisers of Trump 2.0 are emphatic that the new Trump administration is keen to reduce Indian dependence on Russia for arms and equipment import. They are firm that Russia can never be a reliable partner for India moving forward since Russia is now internationally isolated due to its invasion of Ukraine Trump after taking over had two telephonic conversations with Narendra Modi. In its second call, Trump went into the intricacies of the issues involved and told the Indian Prime Minister to buy more from the U.S., especially the defence equipment.

The hint is clear. Trump is a transactionalist. He believes in direct deals. So the American signal is that India has to cut its imports from Russia, both in terms of defence equipment and oil, and then , the U.S. can work on some ways to compensate that by being softer on tariffs and the dealing with illegal undocumented Indians staying in the USA. US administration has already deported undocumented persons to Mexico, Columbia and Brazil, but so far no deportation has taken place in respect of Indians in USA. Indications suggest that this may be a part of the next Mod-Trump deal.

Donald Trump has thrown up Narendra Modi to a big test. India has to reduce the extent of its economic relations with Russia, its trusted friend in all seasons and the saviour of the balance of payments crisis by supplying oil to India at a highly concessional rate for the last two years. The U.S. under Trump wants Modi to cut oil imports from Russia as a part of the first India-U.S. deal under Trump 2.0 regime. Trump may give some sops to India in the areas of illegal immigrants and transfer of technology but Prime Minister Narendra Modi has to agree to be a part of the global strategy of Trump in Asia-Pacific aimed at countering China.

Finally, even if, Narendra Modi decides on the dates of Russian President's visit few days after his Visit to Washington, there will be nothing much attractive for Vladimir Putin to pick up from the plate of India-Russia relations. The question is that can Narendra Modi show some guts to stand for real strategic autonomy by taking care of national interests rather than be a cheerleader of the maverick president just like Argentinean and Hungary Presidents. The coming Washington meeting and the follow up developments will show whether our 56 inch chest Prime Minister has some spine left. (IPA Service )

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