(MENAFN- Trend News Agency)
BAKU, Azerbaijan, November 23. Economies of the
Middle East, North Africa, Caucasus, and Central Asia, despite
uncertainties, were able to maintain a good level of growth, Jihad
Azour, Director of the Middle East and Central Asia Department at
the International Monetary Fund (IMF), provided insights into the
economic outlook for the Middle East, North Africa, Caucasus, and
Central Asia during an online briefing, Trend reports.
"We expect growth to stay strong and broad-based for this year,"
Azour stated. "Next year, growth is expected to reach 4.5%. Of
course, there are variances here between oil-exporting and
oil-importing countries."
He noted the differentiated impact of the oil sector on the
region's economies. "The oil sector has affected the level of
performance for the oil-exporting CCA countries. However, we
foresee that some economies are beginning to notice signs of slower
trade and other types of inflows, especially on remittances, which
are affected by the ongoing war in Ukraine," he explained.
Azour added that the medium-term outlook for oil exporters is
dampened by low oil production levels and market uncertainties.
"While the oil-importing countries have enjoyed a higher level of
growth, with growth rates on average exceeding 6%, the medium-term
outlook has also been revised downward because countries need to
focus on implementing structural reforms to boost their growth
prospects," he noted.
Discussing inflation, Azour highlighted positive trends. "I
would say the bright side is also inflation. Inflation is easing,
dropping to 6.9% this year, and it's expected to fall to about 5%
in the medium term," he said.
However, he warned of persistent challenges. "Therefore, it's a
mixed picture with strong economic performance relative to other
parts of the world. Uncertainty remains extremely high, and shocks
are affecting those countries," Azour remarked. "It's important to
look at the risk matrix in commodity prices and the risk of
additional export restrictions. But the capacity to absorb shocks
is different between countries, and this is the reason why we
encourage countries to preserve and amplify their buffers."
Azour pointed out the potential long-term impacts of regional
conflicts. "At the regional level, conflicts could escalate and
could cause lasting economic losses for some of those countries,"
he said.
He also addressed concerns over foreign investment. "The high
level of uncertainty may affect the attractiveness of foreign
direct investment. Therefore, moving into accelerating the
structural reform agendas is an important dimension to regain a
higher level of growth," Azour said. "But this may face social
discontent and political challenges, encouraging countries to
preserve policies that maintain macroeconomic stability and
protection frameworks."
Follow the author on X: @Lyaman_Zeyn
MENAFN23112024000187011040ID1108916758
Legal Disclaimer:
MENAFN provides the information “as is” without warranty of any kind. We do not accept any responsibility or liability for the accuracy, content, images, videos, licenses, completeness, legality, or reliability of the information contained in this article. If you have any complaints or copyright issues related to this article, kindly contact the provider above.