China Isn't Getting The Japan It Wants

It even condemns domestic Chinese policies such as the“dismantling of Hong Kong's autonomy and freedoms as well as the PRC's human rights issues, including in Xinjiang and Tibet.”

Despite PRC diplomacy that disparages Japan, Japanese leadership is increasingly welcome
in the region. While many Chinese and Koreans hold grudges, Japan is mostly rehabilitated in the eyes of the international community.

PRC officials continue to
talk
about Japan needing to“gain the trust of its Asian neighbors,” but the neighbors have moved on. In a 2024
survey
of elite attitudes in Southeast Asian countries conducted by Singapore's Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, respondents named Japan the“most trusted” major country.

Notwithstanding escalating Chinese pressure since 2012, Japan has refused to acknowledge China's claims to ownership of the Senkaku Islands (called Diaoyu by Beijing) as legitimate, insisting the issue is settled.

Japan has never assented to Beijing's claim to sovereignty over Taiwan, and in recent years Tokyo has become more vocal in its criticism of Chinese attempts to intimidate Taiwan's government militarily.

Tokyo
supports
the 2016 ruling by the intergovernmental Permanent Court of Arbitration that invalidated Beijing's claim to sovereignty over most of the South China Sea.

The US-Japan military alliance remains healthy and continues to deepen. Japan is increasing its military power and loosening the post-World War II restrictions on its use of military force. Both trends are fundamentally unfavorable to the PRC.

As Japan has gradually moved toward re-militarization over several decades, the Chinese government has criticized – loudly – every significant step.

This did not, however, prevent an acceleration of re-militarization during the last two years, during which the Japanese government decided to increase defense spending from around 1% to 2% of Japan's GDP, build a long-range strike capability, operate small aircraft carriers, drop the ban on exporting weapons and place the three branches of the Japanese military under a new unified command.

Instead of reliably supplying China with advanced technology, Japan supports economic
de-risking . In particular, Tokyo is
cooperating
with Washington's campaign to restrict the transfer of advanced semiconductors to China.

All of this is happening mostly because of a series of aggressive moves by Beijing, with secondary contributions from North Korea and Russia.

Japanese
think
China's military buildup is excessive and worrisome. China's burgeoning military capabilities and
intensifying
threats toward Taiwan seemingly increase the prospect of Beijing seizing control of the island, which would position the PRC to control sea lanes vital to Japan's well-being.

Xi's decision to build a complex of military bases on artificial islands in the South China Sea beginning in 2013 jolted the region, including
Japan , into viewing Chinese foreign policy more pessimistically.

Beijing has managed to convince Japan's people that China poses a threat to annex Japanese territory. China has increased the number of government vessels sailing near the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands since 2012, overreacting to the decision of the Japanese government to purchase the islands from a Japanese family. The PRC releases occasional hints in
official media
and even from
Xi himself
that China rather than Japan is the rightful owner of the Ryukyu Islands including Okinawa.

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Finally, Russia's attempt to annex all of Ukraine starting in 2022 made Japan feel much less secure, mostly because of the
sense
that the Russian invasion makes a Chinese war of conquest in Asia more likely. Beijing's diplomatic and material support for the Russian war effort does nothing to dispel Japan's fear.

Just before the July US-Japan meeting, Japanese Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa met PRC Foreign Minister Wang Yi. PRC official media paraphrased Wang
telling
Kamikawa that“the China-Japan relationship is at a critical juncture where it would reverse if failing to advance,” the
same thing
Wang
said
over a year ago. But if there was ever such a“critical juncture,” Japan is now well past it.

Denny Roy (...) is a senior fellow at the East-West Center in Honolulu.

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