Suicide Bombings In Nigeria: Tactic Is Back After A Four-Year Break Security Researcher Offers 3 Possible Reasons

(MENAFN- The Conversation) Nigeria's first suicide bombing since 2020 took place in June 2024 with four coordinated attacks that killed at least 30 people .

The attacks took place in Gwoza, a town in Borno State, north-east Nigeria. Gwoza was once the seat of the Islamic Caliphate declared by boko haram insurgents in 2014. Boko Haram is an extremist sect which aims for Islamic rule in Nigeria and an end to secular governance.

The first of the three well-coordinated attacks targeted a crowd attending a wedding in the town. The second and third incidents occurred hours later. The fourth incident had no casualties beyond the lone bomber, who killed herself by detonating her improvised explosive device. In all, four suicide bombers died.

No group has officially claimed responsibility for the attacks. But they followed the pattern associated with the mainstream Boko Haram prior to its splintering . Boko Haram split into two factions following internal doctrinal and administrative style disputes with its then leader, Abubakar Shekau. A faction which calls itself the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) emerged after pledging allegiance to ISIS .

The Gwoza incident suggests that the group Boko Haram or its splinter may be re-tooling its campaign of terror. The Nigerian military says the insurgents may have raised an army of suicide bombers.

Since 2003, Boko Haram insurgents have used mass abductions, suicide bombing and other forms of gun violence. They have aimed at both soft (civilian) and hard targets (military/law enforcement).

I have been doing research and consulting on aspects of national security and counter-terrorism for over two decades. In this article I set out three hypothetical scenarios that could explain the latest suicide bombings.

First, they could be an act of desperation on the part of the insurgents. Second, they could signal a strategic shift of tactics. And lastly, they could be a form of strategic communication by the insurgents.

The Gwoza attacks are significant in a number of ways. First, they were the first in Nigeria after a four-year hiatus.

Secondly, the attacks occurred in a town that is relatively fortified by combatant military personnel involved in the fight against insurgency.

Thirdly, the attacks were dramatic and well-coordinated, indicating that they must have been carefully planned and executed.

The attacks have raised concerns about the success and sustainability of Nigeria's fight against insurgency. Counter-insurgency in Nigeria has relied on military might and tactics. This has failed to yield the desired result.

The government has claimed success. Two days before the attacks a spokesperson of the military authority told journalists that they had significantly undermined the insurgents.

I have come to understand that terrorists use suicide bombing for a number of reasons, including inflicting maximum harm and injury, stoking widespread fear and terror, drawing attention or publicity to a cause, disrupting social and economic life of society and seeking revenge.

The goal of suicide bombing can vary from context to context, reflecting the motive of the groups behind it and their strategic logic and priorities.

Three hypothetical scenarios could explain the resurgence of suicide bombing in Nigeria.

First, it could be an act of desperation by the insurgents, who have suffered immense pushback by the military in the recent months. They might have resorted to such attacks in a desperate bid to spite the military and portray their resilience.

Second, it could be a strategic shift, caused by organisational changes resulting from the loss of some commanders and critical infrastructure.

Third, it is possible that the attacks are a form of strategic communication or messaging. Suicide terrorism is considered effective not only because of its lethality; it is also believed to be sending a message that the cause being fought by the terrorists is so dire that death is a better outcome than life for the terrorist.

Part of the strategic message seems to aim at increasing public fear and anxiety and disrupting the narrative that government is winning the counter-terrorism fight.

Whatever the case, future developments will reveal more. But the level of planning and coordination tends to suggest the possibility of a new strategic logic in the insurgents' campaign of terror.

The government forces have had some successes, for example reclaiming territories that were occupied by the insurgents, particularly in the north-east. But more needs to be done.

Terrorism thrives on tactical opportunism, and suicide bombing serves as a key strategy in that respect. A resurgence of suicide terrorism in Nigeria would signal a major setback in the fight against terrorism in the country.

Already, it has brought about public apprehension as to the possibility of a similar attack elsewhere in the country.

Three things need to happen:

• a pragmatic repositioning of the country's counter-terrorism efforts. More emphasis should be laid on the non-military approach, such as penetrating intelligence and undercover operations that enlist civilian participation.

• reducing the insurgents' capacity for suicide terrorism. This can be achieved by denying them access to sites, resources and recruits for that purpose. Clearing their various operational bases and hideouts will be a step in the right direction.

• better crowd control and safety at events. Citizens should be advised about how to detect and prevent suicide terror attacks in crowded situations.

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