(MENAFN- AzerNews)
Fatima Latifova
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Armenia's recent move to align with Western countries and the US
instead of its long-time ally Russia has significantly affected
Russia-Armenia relations. According to experts' views, this shift
could notably alter the geopolitical balance in the South Caucasus
and the foreign policies of both countries in the near future.
It should be recalled that, following the collapse of the Soviet
Union, Yerevan had close ties with Moscow. It was one of Armenia's
most important military and economic allies. Relying on this
cooperation, Armenia occupied Azerbaijani territories and displaced
nearly 1 million Azerbaijanis over 30 years, devastating historical
and cultural monuments and fertile lands in Azerbaijan's Garabagh
region.
However, in 2020, Azerbaijan's counteroffensive against Armenian
provocations signalled the potential collapse of Armenia's
fortification along the grey zone. The liberation of Garabagh from
Armenian occupation in 44 days proved that official Yerevan was
powerless against Azerbaijan without a protector.
Subsequently, Russia's attempt to balance its relations with
Azerbaijan caused Armenia's concern and to change its political
vectors. Official Yerevan, under the pretext of strengthening its
economic ties with the West, began seeking supporters other than
Russia. The importance the West places on democratic values and
human rights became more appealing to some groups in Armenia. The
Armenian lobby in Europe took advantage of this opportunity and
reinforced Yerevan's policy of rapprochement with the West.
Armenia's closer ties with the West led to a decrease in the
military support it received from Russia, raising concerns about
Armenia's security. The strained relations between Armenia and
Russia in the South Caucasus suited the interests of the US, which
aims to reduce Russia's influence in the region. The intensified
military activities and training between Armenia and the US are
indicative of this. Armenia's desire to end its strategic alliance
with Russia and seek new allies and strategic partners could result
in the US flag flying in the South Caucasus, the worst enemy of
Russia.
It should be noted that from July 15-24, "Eagle Partner"
military exercises were held in Armenia with the participation of
US and Armenian soldiers. This exercise, which began in September
2023, is in its second season this year. It is clear that this
US-Armenia political unity aims to showcase Washington's physical
presence in the region. Through these exercises, the US
demonstrates its presence in the South Caucasus to Russia and
Iran.
Despite Russia maintaining its composure for a while, it began
voicing objections to Armenia's significant shift towards the West.
This led to tensions between pro-Russian and pro-Western groups
within Armenia's internal politics. The unrest within Armenia a few
months ago, labelled as a religious uprising to seize power, was a
direct protest against Russia's diminishing influence over
Armenia.
However, Armenia's strengthened relations with the West
undeniably positively impact Yerevan's relations with Turkiye.
Especially considering Turkiye's NATO membership, Pashinyan's
administration is motivated to normalise and continue developing
relations with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. This is
evidenced by Armenia informing Turkiye before Iran about
recognising Palestine as a state.
Russia understandably sees Armenia's pivot to the West as a
threat to its sphere of influence. Therefore, it strongly condemns
Armenia's participation in events involving Europe and the US and
was troubled by Yerevan's presence at the recent NATO summit.
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin expressed regret
over Yerevan's participation in the NATO summit in Washington. He
even stated that by deepening cooperation with NATO, Yerevan risks
seriously destabilising the South Caucasus and harming its
security.
How accurate is this?
The South Caucasus is already a complex and attention-grabbing
region due to its geopolitical position. Countries like Russia and
Iran have long pursued policies of expansion in the neighbouring
territories, including those of Azerbaijan. Up until five years
ago, Armenia's provocations exacerbated the situation in the
region. Azerbaijan's liberation of its territories, protests in
Iran a few years ago, and the Russia-Ukraine war have brought some
calm to the region.
However, NATO's special cooperation with a regional state will
likely result in NATO strengthening its presence in the South
Caucasus. Given Azerbaijan's balanced policy towards NATO, it is
clear that Baku will not disrupt regional stability in terms of its
relations with the West and Russia.
But can Armenia, in search of a new ally, replicate this
balanced policy?
Currently, Armenia's alignment with both the EU and the US
significantly impacts its relations with Russia. Armenia will need
to exercise careful diplomacy to maintain balance and protect its
national interests during this process. It is a stark contrast to
the country's political past today; Armenia, which once joined the
CSTO and was able to withstand despite its poor economy in the
South Caucasus with the Kremlin's support, today ignores the fate
of neighbouring Georgia in the background of its extreme
integration with the West. The failure of geopolitics to conform to
geostrategic realities and Armenia's aggressive Westernisation
strategy not only worries Moscow but also puts the future of the
South Caucasus and even Yerevan at risk. The political imbalance
makes Yerevan not an ally of the West, but rather a tool in the
hands of the Western powers.
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