Explainer: Why Taiwan's Vote Commands Global Attention

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Taiwanese voters head to polls this week to elect a new head of state and parliament. In the last three decades, Taiwan has transformed from an anti-communist military dictatorship to a model democracy. The 16th largest trading nation in the world (Switzerland ranks 20th) enjoys peace and prosperity.

The future of Taiwan, which is under pressure from China, is widely regarded as geopolitically decisive. But why? What can Taiwan do about it? And what is the ideological significance of Taiwan, which has a population of just 23.5 million people, for the West?

With inputs from sinologist Simona Grano of Zurich University and political scientist Ho-fung Hung of Johns Hopkins University in the United States, SWI swissinfo examines why Taiwan holds outsized importance for Switzerland and the world.

One important reason is Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, known as TSMC. The company with headquarters in Hsinchu produces most of the global supply of semiconductors. Microchips in smartphones, laptops, cars, refrigerators, TVs and digital arms systems need semiconductors to work.

“Another reason is Taiwan's geostrategic location at the centre of the global supply chain and maritime trade routes,” says sinologist Simona Grano who believes that maintaining Taiwan's status quo is very important for“global stability”.

China's hostility against Taiwan dates back to the Chinese civil war which went on until 1949. Back then, the communists under the leadership of Mao Zedong defeated the nationalists under Chiang Kai-shek. After the defeat, together with another two million Chinese, Kai-shek fled to the island of Taiwan. The territory in the southeast coast of the Asian continent had previously been governed by colonial powers such as Portugal, the Netherlands and finally Japan. Kai-shek's nationalist party governed Taiwan as a dictatorship for 40 years and laid claim to the whole of China. Since the first opposition party was recognised in 1987, Taiwan has developed into a democratic role model.

“At no point in history did Taiwan belong to the People's Republic of China which was founded in 1949,” political scientist Professor Ho-fung Hung told SWI swissinfo.

Nevertheless, China's government is still adamant that“Taiwan is a breakaway province” that must be“reunited with the motherland”. Chinese President Xi Jinping emphasised the importance of this goal in his 2024 New Year's speech. He did not rule out the use of force, if needed.

Because of China's veto, Taiwan is still not represented in the United Nations. Moreover, China does not entertain diplomatic relations with countries that officially recognise Taiwan an independent state. Hence, only 12 states – including Guatemala, Haiti and the Vatican – are on the list of countries that recognise Taiwan as a sovereign country.

Switzerland does not recognise Taiwan as a sovereign state either. Switzerland follows a One-China policy and does not recognise Taiwan as an independent country.

Taiwan holds one significant trump. “Ideologically, Taiwan is important as it contradicts China's assertion that western values and democracy are incompatible with Chinese culture and indigenous values,” Grano explains.

Ho-fung Hung concurs that these achievements are significant.“Despite different political attitudes towards China, the most important actors of Taiwan's domestic policy agree on one thing: they all want to maintain and defend the human rights policies that have been fought for in recent years as well as the country's independent democratic society.”

However, what can social cohesion attain when faced with a dominant military power? It is clear Taiwan can do little to counter its much larger neighbour if the situation escalates. Nevertheless, the government in Taipei is doing a lot to increase the price of a Chinese attack. For example, mandatory military service was increased from four to 12 months as of January 1, 2024. The United States also provides military support to Taiwan. Taipei is also strengthening its unofficial communication channels to parliaments and governments of other countries in the wake of Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine.

Taiwan elects it president, vice president and legislative representatives on January 13. After having served two four-year terms, President Tsai Ing-wen of the left-wing liberal Democratic Progressive Party cannot run for office again. Many people expect the current Vice President Lai Ching-Te to succeed her. The opposition parties Kuomintang and Taiwan People's Party could win the majority of the votes, according to the latest polls. All Taiwanese parties are against unification with China. Voters must cast their ballots in their hometowns.

Grano considers Taiwan an“excellent role model for a country that has successfully made the transition from an authoritarian one-party rule to a vibrant democracy without suffering an authoritarian relapse”.

The transition has been peaceful. Since the first free elections in 1996, the government has changed three times. The question of whether elections bring about political change and governments give up power after losing elections is considered a litmus test for democracies. In 2019, Taiwan became the first Asian country to introduce same-sex marriage. For Grano it is clear:“Taiwan is one of the most liberal and free Asian countries which respect diversity, human rights and civil liberties.”

Taiwan's struggle for international recognition is an incentive for the country's political powers to set an example when it comes to human rights and democracy. According to Ho-fung Hung, the authoritarian development in Chinese Hong Kong has strengthened this desire in Taiwanese society. For him, the case of Hong Kong has shown“what Beijing's promise of a country with two different systems is worth: namely nothing”. Despite the threats, he is optimistic about Taiwan's future on its road to independence.

Grano thinks there are many parallels between the two countries.“Like Taiwan, Switzerland is a small country,” he notes.“Like Taiwan, Switzerland is a democratic country where civil liberties are highly respected. For Switzerland, promoting democracy around the world is a constitutional mandate.”

The parallels are particularly evident in the active exchange between Switzerland and Taiwan when it comes to people's rights in direct democracy. Taiwan introduced direct democracy in 2003 and has reformed its laws on initiatives and referendums several times since.

Taiwan has significantly lowered the number of signatures needed for initiatives and referendums. This has motivated voters to launch more than a dozen referendums on issues like food security, nuclear energy and the definition of democracy over the past few years.“When it comes to direct democracy, Switzerland clearly serves as a point of reference for Taiwan,” emphasises Professor Hung.

Taiwan is Switzerland's fifth most important trading partner in Asia. According to the Swiss representative in Taipei, Claudia Fontana Tobiassen, trade between the two countries has“almost doubled since 2010”. Today, more than 120 Swiss companies operate in Taiwan, according to the same source. The Swiss rail vehicle manufacturer Stadler Rail, which was recently commissioned to supply metro trains to the port city of Kaohsiung, is among them.

As Switzerland does not recognise Taiwan as an“independent state” due to China's veto, the Trade Office of Swiss Industries handles diplomatic relations in Taipei while the Taipei Cultural and Economic Delegation maintains diplomatic relations in Bern. Both representations are part of the respective foreign ministries and are headed by career diplomats.

Historically, Catholic missionaries and representatives of the Swiss Bethlehem Mission have contributed to Taiwan's development over the past 70 years. They promoted vocational training, health care and the minority protection for members of Taiwan's 16 indigenous peoples.

Edited by Benjamin von Wyl. Translated by Billi Bierling/subbed ds

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