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In Lebanon, war with Israel would be an unwelcome development. In recent years Lebanon's political landscape has been marked by public dissatisfaction with elites and an ongoing economic crisis.

Hezbollah , a powerful Shiite Muslim militant and political group in Lebanon, has already been clashing with Israeli forces across the border. If violence continues to escalate between Israel and Hamas, Hezbollah could enter the war from the north.

Mourners carry the coffin of a Hezbollah fighter killed by Israeli shelling in recent weeks. Photo: AP via The Conversation / Hassan Ammar

This would commit Lebanon to an unpopular military confrontation with Israel, shattering the fragile peace between the countries that has held since 2006 .

Given Hezbollah is embedded in the Lebanese government and commands the strongest and most well-organized militant force in the country, other Lebanese factions are limited in their ability to restrain it. These factions would also be wary of triggering another civil war by trying to prevent Hezbollah from pursuing military action.

Because Hezbollah receives funding, military equipment and training from Iran , it is seen as one of Tehran's strongest proxies for its ambitions in the region. Any decision by Hezbollah to increase its attacks on Israel would thus be driven by Iran, or at least carried out with Tehran's approval.

Syria: backed into a corner by political debts to Iran

Political protest in Syria in 2011 led to civil war between President Bashar al-Assad's regime and rebel groups. Assad depended on Iranian and Russian military support to maintain his grip on power.

Assad has no incentive to engage Israel militarily and destablise his hard-won political control. However, debts to Iran may need to be repaid with agitation against Israel if Israel launches an expected ground operation into Gaza.

Since Hamas' October 7 attack on Israeli communities, Syrian state media says Israel has hit airports in Damascus and Aleppo with missile strikes, causing damage and airport closures. State media also said eight Syrian soldiers were killed in an air strike last week. Israel said it had struck Syrian army infrastructure in response to rocket launches from Syria.

Israel's likely objective with these strikes was to deter, rather than provoke, a military confrontation. The strikes are a reminder to Assad that Israel has the capability to hit important targets deep in Syrian territory – and is willing to do so.

There is a risk such actions, combined with political pressure from Iran and Hezbollah, may still lead to a military escalation between Syria and Israel.

One actor with the ability to restrain Syria is Russia, which maintains a large military presence in the country. Russia has no interest in seeing Syria enter into a war with Israel, as this would likely fracture the fragile political stability Russia has been heavily invested in maintaining.

Qatar: seizing a diplomatic opportunity?

Qatar is perhaps one of the most interesting countries to watch in the coming weeks. For decades, it has played a somewhat provocative and outsized role in regional politics and diplomacy.