Russia's 'Flying Chernobyl' Missile Heralds New Nuke Arms Race

Walker also says that more recent US projects, such as Conventional Prompt Strike (CPS), have also rung nuclear alarm bells in Moscow. Moreover, recent confirmed progress on America's prototype nuclear-tipped AGM-181A Long Range Stand Off (LRSO) cruise missile may have compelled Russia to expedite Burevestnik-related testing.

This month, Asia Times reported on US tests of the AGM-181A LRSO to bolster its air-based nuclear deterrent against emerging threats from China and Russia. The AGM-181A LRSO, part of the Long Range Strike family, has undergone nine successful major flight tests, demonstrating its high survivability with a stealthy airframe.

The US missile has also reportedly undergone four powered-flight tests, including a Controlled Test Mission (CTM-1) test. The AGM-181A LRSO may be crucial for the US to fill a perceived nuclear deterrence gap resulting from the downsizing of its nuclear arsenal after the previous Cold War.

At the same time near-peer adversaries China and Russia have continued to develop tactical nuclear weapons. The development of the AGM-181A LRSO may spark a proportionate nuclear response from China and Russia, potentially entailing strategic-level cooperation to increase their respective nuclear arsenals and thus sparking a renewed nuclear arms race with the US.

During the Cold War, the US and Soviet Union investigated prototype nuclear-powered ramjets for use in long-range missiles and strategic bombers to increase the strike range of their airpower. Longer ranges required more fuel, which in turn required bigger aircraft. Nuclear-powered ramjets, however, were seen as an alternative to designing bigger aircraft.

Mechanically, they work by bringing in cold air from the front, passing it over a nuclear reactor to heat it and expelling it to provide thrust. Such an engine could power an aircraft or missile for days or even weeks.

While the US and former Soviet Union developed nuclear-powered aircraft and missile designs, none were operationalized due to technical, safety and operational problems.

Leah notes that Burevestnik's design is similar to the 1960s US Supersonic Low Altitude Missile (SLAM) developed under the top-secret Project Pluto, which aimed to develop a nuclear-powered cruise missile.

She notes that SLAM, which can carry 14 to 26 nuclear warheads, would have been used in the worst-case nuclear war scenario. Leah mentions that the US tested a functioning nuclear ramjet engine in 1961, but the risks of placing it on a missile and other associated dangers led the US to shut down the program.

Leah notes several challenges in building such a weapon. She mentions that a compact nuclear reactor that can withstand the stresses of a cruise missile has to contend with extreme variations in pressure over the body of the reactor, extremely high temperatures needed for the nuclear reaction and rapid heat loss due to air stream cooling.

She notes that Project Pluto sought to fulfill these requirements by designing and building a 500-megawatt nuclear reactor that could withstand heat of over 1,371 degrees Celsius.

Leah says there is no way to mitigate operational accidents in a complex, tightly coupled, small-scale system. However, she also mentions that despite the system being accident-prone, any malfunction would most likely not be seen as a problem as long as it occurred on enemy territory, as its failure could be as devastating to the enemy as its success.

Leah also says there is an implicit peril in running a delivery system that works as a dirty bomb and thus raises nuclear proliferation concerns. She mentions that if other countries pursue these weapons to maintain nuclear parity with peers, it would be severely consequential for the world's population and environment.

She notes that if testing just one such weapon causes enough damage, and if a reactor on a missile explodes, a missile test would quickly have the ramifications of a nuclear test.

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The Burevestnik is part of Russia's“superweapon” family, touted to bring mutually assured destruction (MAD) to its adversaries, designed to be impossible to intercept and meant ultimately to showcase and highlight Russia's technological and military might.

In a September 2021 study for Chatham House , Richard Conolly notes that the Burevestnik, alongside the RS-28 Sarmat ICBM, Avangard, Kinzhal and Tsirkon hypersonic missiles, and Poseidon nuclear torpedo, were developed to maintain strategic parity with the US, penetrate US missile defenses and act as leverage in future arms control negotiations.

Russian Aerospace Forces MiG-31s have conducted simulated firing of the Kinzhal hypersonic aeroballistic missile with a small radar signature and high maneuverability. Photo: Asia Times Files / AFP / Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation

Conolly notes that Russia developed these superweapons in response to fears of a sudden and decisive US naval and air blitzkrieg, with their joint capability to mount conventional or nuclear warheads giving Moscow a broader range of retaliation options.

At the same time, Conolly says that the superweapons do not significantly change Russia's strategic nuclear capability, although they vastly improve its tactical nuclear and conventional strike capabilities.

Russia's conventional military capabilities, which have been battered in Ukraine, may take 15 to 20 years to rebuild , according to some estimates. With sanctions eating away at its economy and defense industry, Russia may be forced to rely more on asymmetric methods in its ongoing confrontation with the West.

Such asymmetric methods may include disinformation, cyberattacks, and lowering the threshold for using tactical nuclear weapons such as the Burevestnik.

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