Explainer: Why US-Iran Peace Talks Are Suddenly Uncertain Again

(MENAFN- Live Mint) The US-Iran peace talks, which were moving toward a possible deal to end a seven-week conflict, have become uncertain again after a mix of political statements, conflicting claims.

At the centre of the situation is a fragile ceasefire and ongoing negotiations over Iran's nuclear programme. Both sides have been trying to reach an agreement to stop the fighting and reduce the risk of further escalation. But progress has become complicated by public messaging from US President Donald Trump and disagreements over what has actually been agreed.

Follow live updates on US Iran Ceasefire Talks here

What changed?

As talks were ongoing through intermediaries, President Trump began speaking publicly about the negotiations. He posted on social media and spoke to journalists, suggesting that Iran had already agreed to major US demands. He claimed Iran had accepted steps such as handing over enriched uranium and stopping its nuclear programme for an unlimited period.

However, officials involved in the talks said these claims were not confirmed. Iranian authorities also rejected the statements and said no final agreement had been reached. They even denied that a new round of talks was scheduled.

This gap between public claims and actual negotiations created confusion and reduced trust in the process.

Why the situation is complicated inside Iran

Another major issue is internal disagreement within Iran itself. US officials believe there may be a split between two key groups:

-Iran's official negotiating team, including Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf

-The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), a powerful military and political force in Iran

This matters because even if negotiators reach an agreement, it may still need approval from different power centres inside Iran. That makes final decisions harder and slower.

What are the main disagreements?

The biggest issue is Iran's nuclear programme.

The US wants:

-A complete freeze on uranium enrichment

-Surrender of near-weapons-grade nuclear material

-No enrichment for a long or indefinite period

Iran wants:

-The right to continue limited enrichment

-Lifting of US sanctions

-Control over key strategic routes like the Strait of Hormuz

Earlier discussions included a US proposal for a 20-year pause on enrichment. Iran countered with a five-year suspension. Neither side accepted the other's plan.

Rising tensions on the ground

The situation became more tense when a US warship seized an Iranian cargo vessel in the Gulf of Oman after it allegedly tried to bypass a blockade. This incident added fresh anger on both sides while a ceasefire was still in place.

The deadline pressure

The ceasefire is temporary and close to expiring. President Trump has not ruled out further escalation if no agreement is reached. He has also said he does not plan to extend the truce.

At the same time, he insists he is not under pressure and believes a deal could still happen quickly.

What happens next?

Right now, three outcomes are possible:

-A last-minute deal is reached

-Talks continue with more delays

-The ceasefire collapses and tensions rise again

But everything depends on whether both sides are willing to compromise on nuclear limits, sanctions, and security demands. For now, the situation remains uncertain, and the next few days are critical.

Also Read | A ceasefire will not prevent the Iran war's economic harm

MENAFN21042026007365015876ID1111011517