USA & Canada Intelligence Brief For Thursday, April 2, 2026

(MENAFN- The Rio Times) The Rio Times - USA & Canada Report
Covering: Pharmaceutical Tariffs · GDP · Labour Market · Tesla · Housing · Canada Economy · Trade · Midterms



What Matters Today



1
Trump Prepares 100% Tariffs on Pharmaceutical Imports - Draft Order Targets Drugmakers Who Haven't Struck Deal Prices, Could Be Announced Thursday
Today's USA and Canada intelligence brief leads with the next front in America's trade war: pharmaceuticals. The Trump administration is preparing to impose 100% tariffs on patented medications and their active ingredients from drugmakers that have not struck pricing deals with the White House, according to a draft executive order obtained by CNBC and CNN. The tariffs would apply under the "Most Favored Nation" policy, which ties US drug prices to cheaper ones abroad. Companies that have already signed deals - including Pfizer, Eli Lilly, and Novo Nordisk - receive a three-year exemption. The announcement could come as soon as Thursday afternoon.
The draft order provides pathways to reduce or avoid the levies: companies can move manufacturing to the United States, negotiate deals with the administration, or demonstrate that domestic alternatives exist. The proposal represents another shift in Trump's aggressive trade strategy, arriving more than a month after the Supreme Court struck down the global IEEPA levies he imposed in 2025 - which had excluded pharmaceuticals. Bloomberg first reported the plan, noting that most major drug companies have already struck deals, meaning the tariffs would target holdouts and smaller foreign manufacturers. The pharmaceutical industry had previously been exempt from the tariff escalation; its inclusion now signals that no sector is safe from the administration's trade architecture.
The timing is politically calculated. Pharma tariffs poll well across party lines - Americans pay more for prescription drugs than citizens of any other developed country. Prior tariff threats fuelled a wave of US manufacturing investments from the pharmaceutical industry. Eli Lilly's stock jumped 3.8% on Wednesday after the company announced expanded domestic production. But the economic context is hostile: Americans already face $4.08/gallon gas, rising food prices, and an economy that grew just 0.7% in Q4. Adding pharmaceutical tariffs into a cost environment where consumers are already strained risks accelerating the inflation the Fed is trying to contain - even if the political optics are favourable.
For Latin American investors, the pharma tariff has direct supply chain implications. Brazil's pharmaceutical industry - the largest in Latin America - exports active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) and generic drugs to the US market. If the 100% tariff applies to Brazilian API exports, it reprices the entire supply chain for companies that have not negotiated exemptions. Mexico's maquiladora pharmaceutical operations, which assemble drugs for the US market, may benefit if production inside the US or within deal-exempt companies becomes more expensive for competitors. Argentina's generic drug manufacturers face the same binary: inside the deal framework or outside it. The broader signal is that Trump's post-SCOTUS tariff strategy is sector-by-sector: autos via Section 232, general imports via Section 122 (expiring July 24), and now pharmaceuticals via executive order. As our previous USA and Canada intelligence brief tracked, the tariff regime is being simultaneously dismantled by courts, replaced by executive action, and weaponised by both parties.


2
Q4 GDP Revised Down to 0.7% - Half of Initial Estimate as Government Shutdown Hacked 1.16 Percentage Points Off Growth
The Commerce Department's final revision of fourth-quarter 2025 GDP slashed the annualised growth rate from 1.4% to 0.7% - cutting the initial estimate in half and revealing an economy that was already weakening before the Iran war began. The downward revision was driven by two forces: weaker consumer spending than initially estimated (growing at just 2.0% versus 3.5% in Q3) and a collapse in federal government spending, which plunged at a 16.7% annual rate - hacking 1.16 percentage points off growth - as the 43-day government shutdown from October to November crippled federal activity.
The underlying indicators are worse than the headline. A measure of the economy's underlying strength - consumer spending plus private investment, excluding volatile exports, inventories, and government spending - came in at just 1.9%, down from 2.9% in Q3. Business investment grew 2.2%, likely reflecting AI-related spending, but down from 3.2% the previous quarter. The trajectory from Q2 (3.8%) to Q3 (4.4%) to Q4 (0.7%) shows an economy that decelerated violently into year-end - and that deceleration preceded the February 28 start of the Iran war, the Hormuz closure, and the surge in energy prices. The 0.7% Q4 is the starting point from which the energy shock is now subtracting.
The political dimension compounds the economic one. Trump's State of the Union - delivered less than two weeks before the GDP revision - declared "the roaring economy is roaring like never before." The 0.7% print is the factual rebuttal. AP described it as "a roar that sounds far more like a whimper." The White House attributed weakness to the shutdown and positioned construction gains as a leading indicator of future growth. But the labour market data (Story 3) and the February jobs report (-92,000) tell a consistent story: the economy was losing momentum before the war, and the war is accelerating that loss.
For Latin American investors, the Q4 GDP revision changes the baseline for US demand forecasts. When the US economy grows at 0.7% - not the 1.4% initially reported - Latin American exports to the US face weaker demand than previously modelled. Mexican manufacturing exports, Brazilian agricultural shipments, Colombian oil and coffee, Chilean copper - all are sensitive to US consumption growth, which at 2.0% is below the pace that sustains strong import demand. The Fed's rate path is also affected: if Q4 was already at 0.7% before the energy shock, the case for rate cuts strengthens - but inflation from $107 oil and tariffs complicates the decision. Powell's term expires in May. Trump's successor appointment will signal whether the Fed prioritises growth support (dovish) or inflation fighting (hawkish). For Latin American central banks that anchor to the Fed, that appointment determines their own rate trajectories.


3
Initial Jobless Claims Fall to 202,000 - Below Forecast But Mixed Signal as Continuing Claims Rise and March Jobs Report Looms
Weekly initial jobless claims dropped 9,000 to 202,000 in the week ended March 28 - below the median Bloomberg forecast of 212,000 - providing a counter-narrative to the broader labour market weakness. Continuing claims, however, rose to 1.84 million, indicating that while fewer workers are being newly laid off, those who have lost jobs are taking longer to find new ones. Separately, the February trade deficit came in at $57.3 billion, slightly smaller than the $60.5 billion forecast.
The claims data creates a paradox at the heart of the US labour market narrative. February lost 92,000 jobs - the worst non-pandemic monthly print in years. December was revised to a loss of 17,000. Without the healthcare sector, the economy has shed approximately 202,000 jobs since Trump took office in January 2025. Yet weekly claims remain below 210,000, suggesting mass layoffs are not driving the weakness - rather, it is a hiring freeze. Companies are not firing; they are not hiring. The distinction matters for economic forecasting: a hiring freeze is reversible if confidence returns, while mass layoffs indicate structural damage. The March jobs report, releasing tomorrow (Good Friday, markets closed), will determine which narrative holds.
For Latin American investors, the claims data's mixed signal means the US consumer is weakening but not collapsing. Latin American exports that depend on US consumer spending - Mexican manufactured goods, Brazilian coffee and orange juice, Central American apparel - face a slow erosion of demand rather than a cliff edge. The March jobs report tomorrow will be the most consequential labour market data in months, but traders cannot react until Monday. If March shows another loss (consensus is roughly flat), the recession narrative gains institutional traction. If it shows a rebound, the "soft landing despite the war" thesis survives. Either outcome arrives into a market that is closed, creating Monday's gap risk.


4
Tesla Q1 Deliveries Miss Forecasts - Stock Slumps as EV Sales Disappoint Despite $4.08 Gas That Should Be Boosting Electric Demand
Tesla reported first-quarter vehicle deliveries below analyst expectations, sending shares lower in pre-market trading. The miss is significant not for Tesla alone but for what it reveals about the US consumer: gasoline at $4.08/gallon - the highest since 2022 - should theoretically accelerate EV adoption. Instead, Tesla's numbers show that economic uncertainty is overwhelming the fuel-cost savings argument. When consumers face rising food costs, climbing mortgage rates, job market weakness, and geopolitical anxiety, they delay major purchases - even ones that would save them money at the pump.
The broader auto sector provides context. Section 232 tariffs on autos remain at 25% (reduced to 15% for Japan and some EU imports via bilateral deals). The tariff regime has raised vehicle prices across the market - new car prices remain elevated from the 2022-2023 surge. Tesla's miss suggests that neither EV incentives from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act nor $4+ gas can overcome the affordability wall that American consumers have hit. Rivian also reported strong delivery numbers but saw its stock slide, indicating that the market is sceptical about EV demand sustainability. The paradox - record gas prices failing to boost EV sales - is a consumer confidence problem, not an EV problem.
For Latin American investors, Tesla's miss has two implications. First, Latin American lithium producers (Chile, Argentina, Bolivia) that have built supply projections around accelerating EV adoption face a demand signal that says the acceleration is stalling - at least in the US. If consumers won't buy EVs during a fuel crisis, the demand curve is flatter than the lithium supply investments assumed. Second, Latin American auto markets that import Tesla and other EVs face pricing pressure from tariff-driven cost inflation in the US that cascades into global pricing. Mexico's auto manufacturing sector - deeply integrated with US supply chains - watches Tesla's performance as a leading indicator of whether the North American EV transition proceeds on schedule or delays into 2027-2028.


5
Mortgage Rates Climb for Fifth Consecutive Week - Iran War Pushing Rates Higher as US Housing Market Sinks Deeper Into Slump
US mortgage rates rose for the fifth straight week, driven by investor expectations that inflation will remain elevated due to the energy crisis. The 30-year fixed rate, which had been drifting toward the low 6% range before the war, is now climbing back toward levels that have frozen the housing market since 2022. Residential investment contracted in Q4 - contributing to the GDP weakness documented in Story 2 - and rising rates ensure that contraction continues into Q1 and Q2 of 2026. The housing market, already in its longest slump in decades, is being hit by a new headwind at precisely the wrong moment.
The mechanism is straightforward: oil at $107+ feeds into inflation expectations, which push bond yields higher (US 10-year up 5bp to 4.368% today), which raise mortgage rates, which reduce housing affordability, which suppress home sales and construction. Approximately 77% of outstanding US mortgages carry rates below 5.5% - creating a "lock-in effect" where homeowners refuse to sell because they would trade a low-rate mortgage for a high-rate one. This constrains supply while demand is simultaneously constrained by affordability. The result: a frozen market where neither buyers nor sellers can move.
For Latin American investors with US real estate exposure - particularly Mexican and Brazilian investors who hold residential or commercial property in Florida, Texas, California, and New York - rising mortgage rates compress property valuations through reduced transaction volumes and lower refinancing activity. The US housing slump also reduces demand for Latin American building materials: Brazilian hardwoods, Mexican cement, and Colombian marble all face a construction environment where residential starts are contracting. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act's full expensing provisions may support commercial construction, but residential - the sector that employs the most workers and consumes the most imported materials - is heading in the wrong direction. The Fed's rate path is the only variable that could reverse the trend, and the Fed is constrained by $107 oil inflation.


6
Canadian Bank Economists: Carney's Investments "Not Enough" - TD, National Bank, and Scotiabank Call for Tax Overhaul to Fix Competitiveness
Canada's largest bank economists delivered a blunt verdict on Prime Minister Carney's economic strategy: it is insufficient. At an Economic Club of Canada event, TD Bank chief economist Beata Caranci said the November budget's investments "are a good first step, but really what they've done so far is unwind previous bad policy." National Bank's chief economist Stéfane Marion called for more aggressive infrastructure building, particularly pipelines to ship oil to Asia: "We need to do it in less than 10 years." The consensus: Carney's $1 trillion investment pledge over five years and the April 1 Ontario housing partnership are necessary but not transformative.
The critiques converge on competitiveness. Federal regulations have increased 37% since 2006, growing nearly twice as fast as in the United States. Despite the Carney-Ford Ontario housing partnership - which eliminates the full 13% HST on new homes up to $1 million, expected to generate 8,000 housing starts and 21,000 jobs - CMHC warns that housing demand remains "below historical averages" and Toronto is on pace for its lowest housing starts in 30 years. The Bank of Canada has cut rates to 2.25% after 275 basis points of total cuts since 2024, but consumption spending looks vulnerable amid weak population growth, a challenging labour market, and record-high household debt servicing (above 14% of disposable income).
The structural challenge is articulated by RBC Economics: Canada's economy "did not collapse" under tariff pressure, but it has fragmented into "trade-hit and trade-insulated regions." Ontario and Quebec manufacturing face US tariffs of up to 50% on autos, steel, and aluminum. The Prairie provinces benefit from $107 oil and relatively affordable housing. Atlantic Canada and British Columbia face different dynamics entirely. Carney's "Buy Canadian" policy ($70 billion in procurement), Bill C-26's $1.7 billion for provincial housing, and the Canada-Mexico Action Plan for USMCA positioning represent a coherent strategy - but coherent is not the same as sufficient when GDP growth is below 1% and unemployment is heading to 6.7%.
For Latin American investors, Canada's economic debate has three implications. First, the Canada-Mexico Action Plan coordinates Ottawa and Mexico City's positions ahead of the USMCA mandatory review - Article 34.7 requires the three governments to decide whether to extend to 2042, conduct annual reviews, or allow expiry in 2036. Latin American exporters with Canadian market exposure should monitor whether the review produces a more protectionist or more open North American trade framework. Second, Carney's trade diversification - doubling non-US exports over a decade - opens opportunities for Latin American suppliers in sectors where Canadian procurement is pivoting away from the US. Third, the housing partnership's $2.2 billion in tax relief and 8,000 expected housing starts create demand for building materials and construction labour that Latin American suppliers may capture - particularly in Ontario, where the full HST elimination applies to new homes signed between April 1, 2026, and March 31, 2027.





Market Snapshot

INSTRUMENT	LEVEL	MOVE	NOTE
S&P 500	~6,540 (futures -1.2%)	▼ worst Q1 since Q3 2022	Last trading day before Good Friday; weekend de-risk selling; pharma tariff uncertainty; oil surge
Dow Jones	~46,300 (futures -1%)	▼ -5% past month	Trump's 50,000 record claim "growing stale" - AP; pharma stocks mixed on tariff news; oil stocks up
US Gas (AAA)	$4.08/gallon	▲ +37% since war; +$1.08	Steepest 1-month climb in history; surpasses Katrina; Easter travel demand adds pressure
WTI Crude	$107-$113 (surging)	▲ +8-13% post-speech	Diamondback, ConocoPhillips surging; oil stocks diverge from market; energy sector best performer
US 10Y Treasury	4.368% (+5bp)	▲ yields rising	Inflation expectations; mortgage rates climbing 5th week; bond sell-off global; rate cut expectations fading
Initial Claims	202,000 (-9,000)	▼ below 212K forecast	Continuing claims 1.84M (rising); hiring freeze, not mass layoffs; March jobs report tomorrow
Tesla (TSLA)	Down pre-market	▼ Q1 deliveries miss	$4.08 gas not boosting EV demand; consumer uncertainty > fuel savings; Rivian also sliding
USD Index	100.157 (+0.5%)	▲ safe haven demand	Risk-off into dollar; EUR $1.1545; GBP -0.7%; yen ¥159.60; EM currencies weakening
CAD/USD	Weakening	▼ BoC trapped	GDP below 1%; BoC at 2.25%; oil windfall helps Alberta but doesn't offset tariff damage to Ontario

Domestic Stability Tracker


Critical
Economy Was Already Weakening Before the War - GDP 0.7%, Feb -92K Jobs, Now $4.08 Gas
The Q4 GDP revision to 0.7% proves the economy was decelerating before the first bomb fell on Iran. Consumer spending at 2.0% (vs 3.5% prior quarter), residential investment contracting, the government shutdown hacking 1.16pp off growth. Then the war added $107 oil, $4.08 gas, and a frozen hiring market. The March jobs report tomorrow - released on Good Friday with markets closed - will determine whether the trajectory is stagnation or recession. Either way, the "roaring economy" narrative is dead. The question is how bad the replacement narrative gets.


Critical
Tariff Escalation Continues: Pharma 100%, Section 122 Expiring July 24, SCOTUS Aftermath Unresolved
The tariff regime is being rebuilt in real time. SCOTUS struck down IEEPA tariffs. Trump replaced them with Section 122 at 10% - but that expires July 24. Now pharma faces 100%. Section 232 covers autos, steel, aluminum. $175B in refunds are pending. Congress must vote before midterms. Democrats want household refund checks. Republicans want tariff revenue. Every sector faces a different tariff, a different legal basis, and a different expiry date. Trade policy has never been less predictable - and the pharmaceutical tariff adds the sector that touches every American household.


Tense
Midterm Indicators All Flashing Red: $4.08 Gas + Job Losses + 41% Approval + Grocery Shock Coming
Every historical midterm predictor is signalling danger for Republicans. Gas at a 4-year high in a midterm year. February lost 92K jobs. Trump's approval at 41% (Economist/YouGov). A "grocery shock" approaching as fertiliser shortages and energy costs hit food supply chains. Section 122 tariff vote before November. Most Americans oppose ground troops in Iran. The White House blames Iran for "short-term disruptions," but the disruptions are arriving at the one time - the midterm campaign - when economic reality cannot be spun. The November ballot is being decided at the gas pump.


Watching
Canada: Structural Transition Under Carney - Housing Partnership Active, Banks Say "Not Enough"
Carney's Ontario partnership launched April 1: full HST elimination on new homes up to $1M, $8.8B development charge cost-match, 8,000 expected starts, 21,000 jobs. But CMHC warns demand is "below historical averages" and Toronto starts are at 30-year lows. Bank economists call the investments "good first step" but demand tax overhaul. GDP below 1%. Unemployment heading to 6.7%. The USMCA review approaches under maximum tension. Canada is simultaneously building domestically and diversifying internationally - but the banks say the pace is insufficient for the scale of the structural challenge.





Fast Take



Pharma
100% tariffs on drugs is the policy that polls best and hurts worst. Americans hate pharmaceutical prices - bipartisan agreement on this is nearly universal. Trump's deal-or-tariff approach has already produced manufacturing commitments and pricing concessions from Pfizer, Lilly, and Novo Nordisk. But 100% tariffs on holdout drugmakers raise the cost of medications for the patients who need them most - particularly generics and APIs from India, Ireland, and Latin America that the US healthcare system depends on. The political optics are favourable; the economic arithmetic is hostile. Drug prices join gas, food, and housing as the four horsemen of consumer inflation heading into midterms.



GDP
0.7% growth in Q4 is the number that makes every subsequent data point worse. When the starting point is 0.7% - not 1.4%, not the 4.4% from Q3 - the energy shock subtracts from a weaker base. Q1 2026 GDP, incorporating $107 oil, the government shutdown's aftermath, and February's 92,000 job losses, may well be negative. Two consecutive negative quarters is the textbook definition of recession. The administration's argument - that construction gains and AI investment will power growth - must overcome $4.08 gas, frozen hiring, contracting residential investment, and a consumer spending at just 2.0%. The argument is losing.



Tesla
$4.08 gas should be the greatest EV sales pitch in history. Instead, Tesla missed. This is the consumer confidence indicator that matters more than any survey. When Americans are paying record gas prices and still won't buy an EV, the message is clear: the economic anxiety is so deep that even rational savings decisions are being deferred. The lock-in effect isn't just mortgages - it's everything. Consumers are locked into their current cars, their current homes, their current spending patterns, because the uncertainty makes any major decision feel riskier than the status quo. Tesla's miss is a proxy for the American consumer's paralysis.



Friday
March jobs data releases on Good Friday. Markets are closed. The reaction is bottled for three days. The most consequential labour market data in months arrives when nobody can trade it. If March shows job losses, the recession narrative hardens over Easter dinner. If it shows a rebound, the relief arrives Monday into a market that is also absorbing the April 6 deadline outcome, OPEC+ decisions, and whatever Trump tweets over the weekend. The BLS release at 8:30am on a market holiday is the economic equivalent of a sealed envelope opened during a blackout. Everyone will read it. Nobody can act on it until Monday.



Canada
When TD's chief economist says Carney's budget only "unwound previous bad policy," the bar for success has been defined - and it's higher than what's been delivered. Canada's bank economists are the most credible institutional voices on the domestic economy. Their verdict: the Ontario housing partnership is good, the $1 trillion investment pledge is necessary, the Buy Canadian procurement is coherent - but none of it addresses the structural competitiveness deficit. Regulations up 37% since 2006. GDP below 1%. Unemployment heading to 6.7%. The USMCA review approaching under maximum tension. Carney needs a tax overhaul to fix competitiveness. What he's delivered is spending. The distinction between spending and structural reform is the difference between managing the crisis and solving it.





Developments to Watch
01 March jobs report - Friday 8:30am ET (markets closed). The single most important data point of the week. Consensus roughly flat. If negative: recession narrative intensifies. If positive: soft landing thesis survives. Either way, reaction delayed until Monday. Combined with April 6 deadline and OPEC+, Monday's opening prices everything.
02 Pharma tariff announcement - possibly Thursday. Watch for: which companies are hit; whether generics are included; API country-of-origin provisions; and how markets price European pharma stocks (DAX already down 0.8% partly on this). Latin American API exporters in Brazil, Mexico, and Argentina face immediate repricing.
03 Fed Chair succession - Powell term expires May. Trump's nominee signals whether the Fed becomes more dovish (supporting growth at the risk of inflation) or maintains current stance. For Latin American central banks that anchor to the Fed, this appointment determines their 2026-2027 rate paths.
04 Section 122 tariff expiry - July 24. The post-SCOTUS replacement tariff expires in 113 days. Congress must vote to extend, replace, or let expire. $175B in refunds pending. The vote will be the most consequential trade policy moment before the midterms - and both parties will use it as a campaign weapon.
05 USMCA mandatory review - approaching. Article 34.7 requires US, Canada, and Mexico to decide: extend to 2042, annual review, or expiry in 2036. Washington wants renegotiation. Ottawa and Mexico City want preservation. Carney and Mexico's Canada-Mexico Action Plan coordinates resistance. Eurasia Group: "the USMCA will stagger on as a zombie." The outcome shapes North American trade for a generation.
06 IMF World Economic Outlook - April 14. US growth forecast incorporating: Q4 at 0.7%, February -92K jobs, $107 oil, tariff drag. Canada forecast under CMHC's recession-risk scenario. The document that either confirms or denies the recession narrative for both North American economies.



Calendar

DATE	EVENT	IMPACT
Apr 2	Pharma tariff announcement (possible TODAY)	100% on non-deal drugs; API repricing; European pharma impact; Latin American supply chain
Apr 3	March jobs report (8:30am ET) - markets CLOSED	Feb was -92K; consensus ~flat; recession narrative depends on this; reaction bottled until Monday
Apr 6	Trump extended deadline for Iran energy strikes	Easter Sunday; markets closed; escalation/resolution; defines gas price trajectory and midterm narrative
Apr 7	Markets reopen Monday	Jobs data + April 6 outcome + OPEC+ + weekend developments = gap opening risk
Apr 14	IMF World Economic Outlook	US/Canada growth forecasts; oil price assumptions; tariff drag quantified; recession risk assessment
May 2026	Fed Chair Powell term expires	Trump successor appointment; dovish/hawkish signal; Latin American central bank anchor
Jul 2026	Canada Groceries Benefit (+25% GST credit) starts	Carney's consumer relief; 5-year programme; affordability signal; pre-positions household spending
Jul 24	Section 122 tariff expires (150 days)	Congress vote required; $175B refunds; midterm weapon; most consequential trade vote in a generation
Nov 2026	US Midterm Elections	Gas + jobs + approval + tariffs = historically toxic combination for ruling party

Bottom Line

North America's April 2 is the day the data confirmed what the gas pump already told every American: the economy was weakening before the war, and the war is making it worse. This USA and Canada intelligence brief tracks the domestic numbers that define the trajectory. Q4 GDP at 0.7% - half of the initial estimate - shows an economy that decelerated violently into year-end, crippled by the government shutdown and softening consumer spending. February's 92,000 job losses showed a labour market in retreat. Today's jobless claims at 202,000 offer a partial counter-narrative: companies are not firing en masse, but they are not hiring either. The March jobs report, releasing tomorrow on Good Friday into closed markets, will determine whether this is a soft patch or the onset of recession.
The tariff escalation continues to reshape the economic landscape sector by sector. The pharmaceutical 100% tariff - targeting drugmakers who have not struck pricing deals with the White House - adds healthcare costs to the inflation burden that already includes $4.08 gas, rising food prices, and climbing mortgage rates. Section 122's July 24 expiry forces Congress into the most consequential trade vote before the midterms. Section 232 covers autos, steel, and aluminum. Each sector faces a different tariff, a different legal basis, and a different political calculus. Tesla's Q1 delivery miss, arriving despite the highest gas prices since 2022, reveals a consumer too anxious to make major purchases - even ones that save money. The paradox defines the American household's position: squeezed by costs but frozen by uncertainty.
Canada's structural transition under Carney is producing policy at an impressive pace - the Ontario housing partnership, Bill C-26, the Buy Canadian procurement, the Canada-Mexico Action Plan - but the country's own bank economists say it is not enough. TD's Caranci, National Bank's Marion, and Scotiabank's economists agree: spending is not the same as structural reform. With GDP below 1%, unemployment heading to 6.7%, and the USMCA review approaching under maximum tension, Canada needs a tax overhaul that the current budget does not deliver. The housing market that the partnership is designed to stimulate shows demand "below historical averages" - the policy may increase supply into a market where buyers are still on the sidelines.
The Easter weekend looms as the highest-risk period of the year for North American markets. Good Friday closes trading. The March jobs report releases into the void. The April 6 deadline falls on Sunday. OPEC+ meets the same day. Markets reopen Monday with three days of accumulated data, decisions, and developments to price in a single session. Portfolios that were de-risked on Thursday did so rationally. The question is whether Monday brings resolution or escalation - and the answer determines everything from the Fed's next move to the midterm campaign narrative.
For Latin American investors, this USA and Canada intelligence brief delivers five signals. First, the pharma tariff creates immediate repricing risk for Brazilian, Mexican, and Argentine pharmaceutical exporters to the US. Second, the 0.7% GDP starting point means US import demand for Latin American goods is weaker than previously modelled - recalibrate export forecasts accordingly. Third, Tesla's miss signals that the EV transition may be slower than lithium supply investments assumed - Chilean and Argentine producers should watch Q2 delivery data closely. Fourth, Canada's Ontario housing partnership creates a 12-month window (April 2026-March 2027) for Latin American building material suppliers to capture construction demand. Fifth, the USMCA review that is approaching will determine whether North American trade becomes more open or more protectionist for the next generation - and every Latin American exporter with US or Canadian exposure has a stake in the outcome. This brief will track the March jobs report, the April 6 deadline, and Monday's market reaction.

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