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Brazil's Morning Call For Friday, March 13, 2026
| Thursday | Ibovespa −2.55% to 179,284 - three-day rally wiped out. Brent +9.90% to $101.56 (back above $100). Khamenei: Hormuz stays closed. IPCA: +0.70% MoM / +3.81% YoY (above consensus). Gov: 12% oil export tax + zeroed diesel PIS/Cofins + R$30B fiscal cost. DI Jan/27 hit 13.99%. USD/BRL +1.61% to R$5.24. S&P 500 −1.52%. Dow −1.56%. Nasdaq −1.78%. Only 7/85 Ibovespa stocks green. Copom cut repriced from 50 bps to 25 bps |
| IPCA | February IPCA: +0.70% MoM (cons: 0.65%, prev: 0.33%) / +3.81% YoY (cons: 3.77%, prev: 4.44%). Education +5.21% drove headline higher. Services inflation remains sticky. 12-month rate fell from 4.44% to 3.81% - still below 4.5% ceiling - but the miss vs consensus triggered DI curve repricing. Market now splits between 25 bps and 50 bps for Copom. Itaú maintains 3.8% IPCA 2026 forecast but flags upside risk from oil |
| Today | US GDP Q4 (cons: +1.4%), Core PCE (cons: +0.4%/+3.1%), Personal Income/Spending, Durable Goods (08:30 ET). Michigan Sentiment (cons: 55.0) + JOLTS (cons: 6.760M) at 10:00 ET. Baker Hughes rig count (14:00 ET). Brazilian Services (08:00 BRT). War Day 14. Copom T−5 days |
The Ibovespa opened at 183,969 - essentially unchanged from Wednesday's close - then fell relentlessly to close at 179,284.49 (−2.55%), its worst session since March 5 and largest point loss (−4,685) in two weeks. Volume surged to R$35.6 billion, well above the 50-day average of R$22.2 billion, confirming institutional selling. The high was the open; the low was 178,495 in the final hour.
The session's catalyst was Iran's new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei declaring that the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed as a pressure tool - directly contradicting Trump's "war is very complete" narrative from Monday. Brent surged 9.90% to $101.56, the highest settlement since 2022 and the second time above $100 in a week. The IEA's 400-million-barrel SPR release announcement and slashed supply forecast (from 2.4M to 1.1M bpd growth) confirmed the severity of the disruption but failed to cap prices.
Domestically, the IPCA at +0.70% MoM (vs 0.65% consensus) was the "fogo amigo" (friendly fire). Education costs jumped 5.21% on seasonal tuition resets, and transport remained pressured. The 12-month rate fell from 4.44% to 3.81%, but the miss vs consensus triggered a violent DI curve repricing: Jan/27 hit 13.99% (+28 bps), the highest since October 2025. The market shifted from confidently pricing a 50 bps Copom cut to splitting between 25 bps and 50 bps.
The government's emergency response - a 12% export tax on petroleum, zeroed PIS/Cofins on diesel, and a diesel subsidy totaling ~R$30 billion - added fiscal uncertainty. Petrobras stocks split: PETR3 +1.45%, PETR4 +0.45% on oil strength, but the export tax clouds the earnings outlook. CSN collapsed 14.45%, Yduqs −14.83%, Embraer −11.01%. Banks bled: Santander −4.44%, Itaú −2.73%. In New York, the S&P 500 fell 1.52% to ~6,673, the Dow dropped 1.56%, and the Nasdaq shed 1.78%. The 30-year bond auction tailed, with yield at 4.871%.
Market Snapshot DATA AS OF THU, MAR 12 CLOSE| Indicator | Close | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Ibovespa | 179,284 | −2.55% |
| USD/BRL | R$5.2423 | +1.61% |
| S&P 500 | ~6,673 | −1.52% |
| Nasdaq | ~22,312 | −1.78% |
| 10Y Treasury | ~4.28% | +7 bps |
| Gold (Spot) | ~$5,250 | +0.96% |
| Brent Crude | $101.56 | +9.90% |
| Iron Ore (62%) | ~$108 | −1.82% |
| DXY | ~99.20 | +0.71% |
The 08:30 ET data wave is the session's anchor: US GDP Q4 second estimate (cons: +1.4%, down from Q3's +4.4%), Core PCE January (cons: +0.4% MoM / +3.1% YoY - the Fed's preferred gauge), Personal Income (cons: +0.5%), Personal Spending (cons: +0.3%), and Durable Goods (cons: +1.1%). A hot Core PCE reading (above +0.4%) would push Fed cut expectations beyond December and send yields higher. A soft GDP print reinforces the recession side of the stagflation equation.
At 10:00 ET, Michigan Consumer Sentiment (cons: 55.0) includes the 5-year inflation expectations reading (prev: 3.3%) - critical for understanding whether consumers are anchoring oil-driven inflation into long-term expectations. JOLTS job openings (cons: 6.760M) test whether labor demand is softening in line with the −92K NFP. The Baker Hughes rig count (14:00 ET) shows the US production response to $100+ oil.
Domestically, Brazilian services sector growth (08:00 BRT) provides a read on economic momentum. The Copom decision is now 5 days away. The IPCA miss, the DI curve repricing, and the government's R$30 billion fiscal intervention have fundamentally changed the setup. The 50 bps cut is no longer the base case - the market is now split between 25 bps and 50 bps, with some pricing a hold if oil stays above $100.
Ibovespa Setup TECHNICAL LEVELSThe Ibovespa closed Thursday at 179,284.49 (−2.55%). Daily RSI plunged to 43.61 (MA: 55.86) - crashing back below 50 after just two sessions above it. MACD histogram remains positive at 1,981 but is compressing rapidly (MACD: −1,501, signal: 480). The 50-day SMA at ~183,874 is now overhead resistance again - Wednesday's close was above it, Thursday's close is 4,590 points below.
Resistance: 179,937 (intermediate SMA) → 182,021 (Thursday's mid-range) → 183,874 (50-day SMA) → 183,969 (Wednesday's close).
Support: 178,495 (Thursday's low) → 177,570 (March 9 low area) → 175,384 (lower Bollinger) → 174,965 (200-day SMA).
Thursday's bearish engulfing candle (opened at Wednesday's high, closed near the week's low) with volume 60% above the 50-day average is a classic exhaustion pattern. The 200-day SMA at ~174,965 is back as the active downside target if Brent holds above $100 into the Copom. The only upside scenario is a geopolitical de-escalation headline or a dramatically soft PCE today. Bias: defensive, targeting the 200-day SMA.
Copom Watch NEXT MEETING: MAR 17-18 · T−5 DAYSThe Selic sits at 15.00% with 5 days to Copom. Thursday's triple shock - IPCA miss, $100+ Brent, and DI curve explosion - has fundamentally altered the rate decision landscape. The DI Jan/27 contract jumped 28 bps to 13.99%, its highest since October 2025. The market is now split between a 25 bps cut (cautious, data-dependent signal) and a 50 bps cut (honoring the January forward guidance). A hold is not impossible if Brent stays above $100 through Monday.
The IPCA at +0.70% (+3.81% YoY) was above the 0.65% consensus but the 12-month rate still fell sharply from 4.44% - the disinflation trend is intact at the headline level. However, services inflation remains sticky and the education component (+5.21%) was the largest in years. The qualitative composition matters more to the Copom than the headline: if core and services are running hot, even a benign headline won't justify an aggressive cut.
The government's fiscal intervention adds a new variable. The 12% oil export tax reduces Petrobras' export revenue, the zeroed diesel PIS/Cofins and diesel subsidy cost R$30 billion, and the combined package signals that the government prioritizes short-term price control over fiscal discipline in an election year. The Copom must now weigh whether the fiscal loosening offsets the disinflationary effect of controlled pump prices.
Economic Calendar FRIDAY, MAR 13| Time | Event | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| All Day | Iran-US War Day 14 - Khamenei declared Hormuz stays closed. Brent back above $100. IEA SPR 400M barrels + supply forecast slashed from 2.4M to 1.1M bpd growth. Gov imposed 12% oil export tax + diesel subsidy (R$30B fiscal cost). Copom T−5 days | HIGH |
| 08:00 BRT | Brazil Services Sector Growth (Jan, MoM/YoY) - Prev: −0.4% MoM / +3.4% YoY. Measures domestic economic momentum ahead of the Copom | LOW |
| 08:30 ET | US GDP Q4 2nd est (cons: +1.4%), Core PCE Jan (cons: +0.4% MoM / +3.1% YoY), PCE headline (cons: +0.3% / +2.9%), Personal Income (cons: +0.5%), Spending (cons: +0.3%), Durable Goods (cons: +1.1%). The PCE is the Fed's preferred gauge - a hot print pushes cut expectations beyond December | HIGH |
| 10:00 ET | Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Mar prelim, cons: 55.0, prev: 56.6). Watch 5-year inflation expectations (prev: 3.3%) - critical for Fed psychology. JOLTS Job Openings (Jan, cons: 6.760M) | HIGH |
| 14:00 ET | Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (prev: 411). US production response to $100+ oil - rising rigs = eventual supply relief; flat rigs = $100 floor hardens | MEDIUM |
| MAR 17–18 | Copom + FOMC Meetings - BCB now split between 25 bps and 50 bps cut (was firmly 50 bps). IPCA miss + $100 oil + R$30B fiscal package = maximum uncertainty. Fed widely expected to hold | HIGH |
| Index | Close | Change | RSI (14) | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ibovespa | 179,284 | −2.55% | 43.61 | Neutral |
| IPC (Mexico) | 66,086 | −2.18% | 35.86 | Oversold |
| COLCAP (Colombia) | 2,172 | −4.53% | 38.87 | OS Watch |
| IPSA (Chile) | 10,400 | −1.00% | 39.79 | OS Watch |
| MERVAL (Argentina) | 2,695,424 | −2.71% | 37.19 | Oversold |
Thursday was a bloodbath across all five LatAm indices - the first synchronized selloff since March 9. COLCAP led the losses at −4.53%, hammered by the Hormuz closure (Colombia is an oil exporter but the global risk-off overwhelmed the commodity tailwind). Mexico's IPC fell 2.18% to 66,086 (RSI 35.86, now oversold), reflecting US demand fears and tariff vulnerability. MERVAL dropped 2.71% and IPSA shed 1.00%. The Ibovespa's 2.55% loss was middle-of-the-pack for the region.
The RSI deterioration is sharp: IPC at 35.86 (oversold), MERVAL at 37.19 (oversold), COLCAP at 38.87 (nearing oversold), IPSA at 39.79 (OS watch), and Ibovespa at 43.61 (neutral but falling fast). The improvement from Monday–Wednesday has been fully reversed. If Friday brings another down day, the Ibovespa will approach oversold territory again and the 200-day SMA at ~174,965 becomes the next technical magnet.
Commodities & FX KEY MOVESBrent surged 9.90% to $101.56, the highest settlement since 2022 and the second close above $100 in a week. The trigger: Khamenei's explicit statement that Hormuz will remain closed. The IEA's 400-million-barrel SPR release and slashed supply forecast (2.4M → 1.1M bpd growth) confirmed the structural severity. WTI rose proportionally. With Hormuz explicitly declared closed by Iran's leadership, the $85–92 range that held Tuesday–Wednesday is broken - the new range is $95–110 unless a ceasefire materializes.
Iron Ore fell ~1.82% to ~$108 as the global risk-off trade hit metals. The recession narrative is winning over the energy-cost-push narrative for iron ore.
Gold rose ~0.96% to ~$5,250, benefiting from the flight to quality as equities sold off. Gold is now reasserting its safe-haven role after Monday's margin-call anomaly.
USD/BRL jumped 1.61% to R$5.2423, erasing three sessions of real strength. The IPCA miss, DI curve repricing, and government fiscal intervention combined to reverse the "Brazil as oil beneficiary" narrative. The 12% oil export tax directly reduces Petrobras' export revenue and the current account benefit that had been supporting the real. The R$5.15 level that held for three days is gone; the next resistance is R$5.30.
DXY surged ~0.71% to ~99.20, reasserting dollar strength as the safe-haven trade returned. The three-day DXY decline (from 98.74 to 98.50) was fully reversed and then some.
Risk Map BULL vs BEAR| Bull Case | Bear Case |
|---|---|
| IPCA 12-month rate fell from 4.44% to 3.81% - disinflation is intact - The monthly miss (+0.70% vs 0.65%) masks the bigger picture: the 12-month trailing rate dropped 63 bps and is now firmly below the 4.5% tolerance ceiling. The education spike (+5.21%) is a seasonal one-off. The Copom can frame the cut as justified by the trajectory, not the single print. The 400M barrel IEA SPR release is the largest ever - physical barrels matter - The announcement didn't move oil Thursday because of the Khamenei headline. But 400 million barrels is real supply hitting the market over the coming weeks. If actual deliveries begin, Brent's floor erodes regardless of rhetoric. Oversold LatAm creates weekend short-covering potential - IPC at RSI 35.86, MERVAL at 37.19, COLCAP at 38.87 are all at levels that historically precede 3–5% bounces. Friday afternoon short-covering ahead of the weekend could provide a tactical rally. Soft PCE/GDP could offset the hawkish oil narrative - GDP at +1.4% (down from +4.4%) would confirm the US slowdown. A soft Core PCE would give the Fed doves ammunition and ease global yield pressure, supporting EM assets. | Khamenei declared Hormuz closed - this is no longer rhetoric, it's policy - Iran's new Supreme Leader explicitly stated the Strait will remain closed as a pressure tool. This removes the ambiguity that had allowed the Tuesday–Wednesday rally. $100+ Brent is now the base case, not the tail risk. The pass-through to global inflation is mechanical and inevitable. The government's R$30B fiscal intervention poisons the Copom narrative - A 12% oil export tax + zeroed diesel taxes + diesel subsidy totaling R$30 billion is classic election-year fiscal loosening. The Copom must now factor in the fiscal impulse offsetting monetary tightening - the exact dynamic that kept the Selic at 15% for most of 2025. The market is right to reprice the cut from 50 bps to 25 bps. DI curve at 13.99% is pricing the Copom into a corner - If the BCB cuts 50 bps against DI pricing of 25 bps, it risks being seen as politically influenced. If it cuts 25 bps, it disappoints the equity market that had been pricing 50 bps. If it holds, it triggers a severe equity selloff. Every path has negative consequences for asset prices. The three-day rally was a bull trap - confirmed by Thursday's engulfing candle - Monday–Wednesday's recovery was built on Trump's "war is very complete" statement, which Khamenei has now explicitly rejected. The Ibovespa's 179,284 close is below Friday's March 6 close of 179,365. Two weeks of war have produced zero net recovery. |
Friday the 13th enters a market that has been stripped of every constructive assumption from earlier in the week. Brent is back above $100 with Khamenei confirming Hormuz remains closed. The IPCA missed hawkish. The government's R$30 billion fiscal intervention clouds the Copom narrative. The DI curve has repriced violently. The Ibovespa at 179,284 has given back the entire three-day recovery and sits below Friday March 6's close. The 200-day SMA at ~174,965 is the next structural target if the selloff extends.
The positioning call returns to fully defensive. Reduce equity exposure heading into the weekend with Hormuz confirmed closed and the Copom decision split. The only overweight remains Petrobras - but the 12% export tax complicates even this trade. PRIO is cleaner exposure to oil upside without the export tax overhang. Exit rate-sensitive names: banks, homebuilders, and retail face a DI curve at 14% and a Copom that may deliver only 25 bps. Vale is a sell at $108 iron ore with global recession fears dominating. Today's PCE is the session wildcard: a soft print below +0.3% Core MoM could trigger a relief rally, but it would take a dramatically dovish number to overcome the structural headwinds. A hot PCE above +0.4% confirms the global stagflation setup and sends the Ibovespa toward 177,000. The weekend risk is asymmetric: any escalation sends markets lower Monday, while de-escalation is no longer credible after Khamenei's statement. Copom in 5 days - the most uncertain rate decision in years.
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