Brazil's Financial Morning Call For December 9, 2025

(MENAFN- The Rio Times) Brazil's financial markets open today with the Ibovespa rebounding 0.52% to 158,187 points as election jitters ease.

Senator Flávio Bolsonaro's hints at dropping his 2026 presidential bid in exchange for amnesty for January 8, 2023, riot convicts - including his jailed father - could clear a calmer center-right path.

Inflation is finally edging back inside the Central Bank's 3% ±1.5% target band for the first time in four years, with a projected 4.4% year-end reading. This restores some investor credibility amid high 15% Selic rates that continue to squeeze credit.

Yet sentiment remains cautious as high interest rates, policy delays, and surging Chinese EVs knock Brazil's auto-sector comeback off track. November production is down over 8% year-on-year to around 219,000 vehicles, and sales are off nearly 6%.

At the same time, the strongest foreign buying in years - R$27–28 billion in net inflows to B3 - is putting fresh wind behind the exchange.

This is supporting record levels via interest-rate arbitrage and discounted valuations despite the risks surrounding the 2026 election. Unemployment holds at record lows, but it masks productivity gaps and underperformance versus potential.



Services inflation remains sticky despite the IPCA's symbolic win after prolonged overshoots. The overshoots were driven by strong activity, resilient jobs, unanchored expectations, a weaker real, higher processed food prices, and costly electricity.

This unfolds against a global risk-on tilt ahead of "Super Wednesday", with the Fed's expected 0.25% cut (89% priced) and Copom likely holding Selic at 15% while hinting at 2026 easing on cooled inflation and growth, as the dollar slides 2% to R$5.42 on eased politics and the real nears support at R$5.30.
Economic Agenda for December 09, 2025
Times in BRT (Brasília Time)
Brazil

• No major domestic data releases scheduled.
  Implication: Markets focus on global cues and "Super Wednesday" decisions, with absent local prints amplifying fiscal and political noise around the 15% Selic's credit squeeze, potentially sustaining Ibovespa volatility near 158k if Copom signals dovish hints amid 4.4% year-end IPCA projections.
  

Mexico

• 07:00 AM BRT – Core CPI (MoM) (Nov) Cons: 0.10% Prev: 0.29%
  
• 07:00 AM BRT – CPI (YoY) (Nov) Cons: 3.69% Prev: 3.57%
  
• 07:00 AM BRT – CPI (MoM) (Nov) Cons: 0.56% Prev: 0.36%
  
• 07:00 AM BRT – Month Core Inflation (YoY) (Nov) Cons: 4.34% Prev: 4.28%
  
• 07:00 AM BRT – PPI (MoM) (Nov) Cons: – Prev: 0.30%
  
• 07:00 AM BRT – PPI (YoY) (Nov) Cons: – Prev: 3.00%
  Implication: Cooling CPI reinforces Banxico's high 7.25% yields and nearshoring appeal, but core stickiness could cap MXN gains near 18.26/USD if highlights spending strains, testing remittance flows and tariff resilience.
  

United States

• 06:00 AM BRT – NFIB Small Business Optimism (Nov) Cons: 98.4 Prev: 98.2
  
• 10:00 AM BRT – JOLTS Job Openings (Oct) Cons: 7.200M Prev: 7.227M
  
• 10:00 AM BRT – US Leading Index (MoM) (Sep) Cons: – Prev: -0.5%
  Implication: Steady small business sentiment and softer job openings lock in Fed cuts, easing yields and boosting BRL inflows via dollar weakness near 99 index, but lagging leading index could temper EM risk-on if signals persistent labor/inflation divergence.
  

Europe

• 02:00 AM BRT – German Exports (MoM) (Oct) Act: 0.1% Cons: -0.2% Prev: 1.5%
  
• 02:00 AM BRT – German Imports (MoM) (Oct) Act: -1.2% Cons: 0.2% Prev: 3.1%
  
• 02:00 AM BRT – German Trade Balance (Oct) Act: 16.9B Cons: 15.9B Prev: 15.3B
  Implication: Resilient exports and trade surplus sustain ECB dovishness despite import contraction, pressuring EUR lower and favoring LatAm carry trades like Brazil's 15% Selic amid disinflation progress.
  

Japan

• 01:00 AM BRT – Machine Tool Orders (YoY) (Nov) Act: 14.2% Prev: 16.8%
  
• 18:50 PM BRT – PPI (YoY) (Nov) Cons: 2.7% Prev: 2.7%
  
• 18:50 PM BRT – PPI (MoM) (Nov) Cons: 0.3% Prev: 0.4%
  Implication: Moderating machine orders and steady PPI cap yen rebound risks from BOJ signals, limiting commodity downside and supporting BRL via stable global flows into EM yields.
  

Why These Events Matter: Mexico's full CPI suite mutes fiscal risks tied to the 15% Selic squeeze and political amnesty bargaining.

This amplifies the odds of a Copom hold-with-hints scenario for Ibovespa rebounds near 158,000 points. U.S. NFIB, JOLTS, and Leading Index data, along with EUR/JPY signals, underscore labor and inflation divergence.

That divergence enhances EM appeal amid the BCB's return to the 4.4% IPCA target and R$27–28 billion in FDI inflows. Meanwhile, foreign buying is testing Brazil's auto-sector strains caused by high interest rates and growing Chinese EV competition.
Brazil's Markets Yesterday
The Ibovespa rose 0.52% to 158,187 points, clawing back part of Friday's heavy loss as investors bet on a calmer centre-right path for 2026 after Flávio Bolsonaro's amnesty-for-candidacy signals eased polarization fears.

Markets brace for“Super Wednesday,” with the Fed and Brazil's central bank set to signal the next phase of global monetary policy. A broad technical uptrend on B3 remains intact, but volatility around politics and commodities keeps stock picking crucial.

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U.S. Markets Yesterday
U.S. markets closed lower on Monday, December 8, 2025, with the S&P 500 down 0.3% to 6,846.51, the Dow Jones Industrial Average off 0.4% to 47,739.32, and the Nasdaq Composite slipping 0.1% to 23,545.90.

Investors took profits ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision later in the week, with traders pricing in an 89% chance of a December rate cut.

Berkshire Hathaway fell after leadership changes, while Warner Bros. Discovery jumped 4.4% following a $108.4 billion acquisition offer from Paramount, sparking a bidding war with Netflix, which fell 3.4%.
Mexico's Market Yesterday
The Mexican peso held near 18.26–18.28 per dollar; the S&P/BMV IPC rose 0.23% to near 63,500 points, close to records, led by financials and infrastructure.

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Argentina's Market Yesterday
The Argentine peso held quiet near 1,435 wholesale; the Merval fell 1.6% to 3.05M points despite ARGT ETF up 0.33% in New York.

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Colombia's Market Yesterday
The Colombian peso wobbled to 3,830 per dollar; the COLCAP closed near 2,113 points, slightly down but up over 50% YoY on records.

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Chile's Market Yesterday
The Chilean peso strengthened to 924–925 per dollar; the IPSA added 0.42% to record 10,222.61 points.

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Commodities
Brazilian Real
The real strengthened as the dollar slid over 2% to R$5.4209 on eased political tensions from Flávio Bolsonaro's amnesty hints and global risk appetite, consolidating above 5.30 support amid "Super Wednesday" braces. BCB's hawkish 15% Selic and Fed cut bets amplified carry appeal.

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Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin trapped at $90,000 (flat) in an 88,000–92,000 range; Ether near $3,123 (-0.7%) on $35M ETF inflows, amid gains for XRP and Solana.

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Companies and Market
Industry Outlook
Brazil's auto sector stalls on high 15% Selic credit strains, policy delays, and Chinese EV/hybrid surge (>50% sales growth to 11% market share); foreign inflows of R$27–28B to B3 boost liquidity and Ibovespa records via arbitrage and valuations, but election risks could reverse flows if fiscal orthodoxy slips.
Key Developments
– Inflation edges to 4.4% year-end inside the 3%±1.5% band for first time in four years per Focus survey, easing family price pressures but services stickiness sustains hawkishness.

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– High Selic at 15%, policy delays (e.g., postponed“Caminho da Escola” bus tender) and Chinese EVs knock Brazil's auto comeback off track, with November production down >8% YoY and sales off nearly 6%.

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– Strongest foreign buying in years injects R$27–28B net to B3 in 2025, reversing 2024 outflows on U.S. rate cuts and discounted valuations, driving records via 15% Selic arbitrage.

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– Flávio Bolsonaro leverages 2026 bid for amnesty on January 8 convicts to free jailed ex-president father, triggering 2–3% real fall, 50+bps rate futures rise, and 4%+ Ibovespa drop on announcement.

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