(MENAFN- The Rio Times) Over the week of November 10–14, Colombia moved into the center of Latin America's geopolitical storm while dealing with sticky inflation, new tax plans and far-reaching social reforms.

President Gustavo Petro escalated – and then partly softened – a confrontation with Washington over lethal anti-drug boat strikes, just as Bogotá hosted a high-profile EU–CELAC summit and pushed new climate commitments at COP30.

Domestically, fresh inflation data and a long-awaited urban economic census sharpened the picture of a country where prices are rising faster than hoped, but consumption and a highly informal business base still underpin growth.

Employers and international institutions intensified warnings about a deep productivity gap and tax burdens on small firms, even as the government advanced an“adjusted” tax reform and doubled down on social-policy ambitions from health-insurance rescues to free higher education.

In energy and climate, state oil company Ecopetrol and Canadian-listed Frontera Energy announced investment plans and corporate restructurings that could reshape Colombia's upstream and midstream landscape, while Bogotá sought to rebrand itself as a global convening power for a managed fossil-fuel phase-out.



1. Petro's Intelligence-Sharing Whiplash With Washington (Nov 12–13)
Petro ordered Colombia's security forces to halt intelligence sharing with U.S. agencies until Washington stops missile strikes on suspected drug-trafficking boats in the Caribbean and eastern Pacific, describing the attacks as potential“extrajudicial executions.”

The move briefly jolted a 25-year security partnership in which Colombia has supplied most actionable intelligence for U.S. anti-drug operations.

Within 48 hours, the defence minister clarified that cooperation and information flows against transnational crime would continue.

Summary: Petro's suspension – and partial rollback – exposed how deeply the U.S. boat-strike campaign is straining Colombia's security doctrine and diplomacy.

Why it matters: Any lasting rupture would weaken regional anti-drug operations and raise the domestic political cost of Petro's human-rights-first approach.
2. Inflation Hits 13-Month High, Narrowing BanRep's Room to Maneuver (data released Nov 10–11)
October consumer prices rose 0.18% month-on-month and 5.51% year-on-year, the highest annual inflation since September 2024 and the fourth straight monthly acceleration.

Housing, utilities, restaurants, hotels and education led the upside surprise, with services inflation running well above the headline.

The data reinforce the central bank's decision to keep rates high and complicate hopes for rapid easing just as minimum-wage talks begin.

Summary: October's 5.51% inflation reading confirmed that Colombia's disinflation has stalled.

Why it matters: Higher-than-expected inflation constrains fiscal and social-spending ambitions and raises the stakes in wage negotiations.


3. Government Unveils“Adjusted” Tax Reform With Lower Target, Higher Sin Taxes (Nov 13–14)
After pushback against an original package aimed at raising 26.3 trillion pesos, the Finance Ministry presented a scaled-down bill targeting 16.3 trillion pesos in new revenue.

The revised plan drops a fuel VAT and recalibrates expectations for enforcement. Around 4.1 trillion pesos would come from higher alcohol and tobacco taxes and roughly 2.2 trillion pesos from a revamped wealth tax.

Business groups warn that the bill leans heavily on consumption and“sin” taxes while assuming ambitious collection gains.

Summary: Petro's team trimmed its tax ambitions but still seeks a multi-billion-peso revenue package centered on alcohol, tobacco and wealth.

Why it matters: The final shape of the reform will determine Colombia's fiscal room for social programs and infrastructure.
4. First Urban Economic Census in 34 Years Maps a Two-Million-Business City Economy (Nov 11–14)
DANE released preliminary results from the 2024 National Urban Economic Census, identifying about 2 million urban economic units outside agriculture and mining.

For the first time, about 219,000 street-vending units – around 11% of all urban businesses – were formally counted, after a nationwide field operation.

Officials say the data will improve targeting of credit, formalization and urban planning; critics argue that without regulatory change, informality will remain entrenched.

Summary: The urban census reveals an economy dominated by small, service-oriented and highly informal businesses.

Why it matters: These numbers will guide debates on formalization, taxation and social protection for workers outside standard firms.
5. OECD and Competitiveness Council Flag Productivity Gap and SME Tax Burden (Nov 11)
An OECD official highlighted that if OECD productivity is indexed at 100, Colombia stands near 40, reflecting informality, low innovation and infrastructure bottlenecks.

The head of the Private Council on Competitiveness warned that current corporate tax levels are“impossible” for many SMEs, even as more than 90% of firms are small or micro-enterprises.

Research also shows growth leaning heavily on consumption supported by earlier minimum-wage hikes.

Summary: New commentary crystallized worries that Colombia's tax and regulatory environment is squeezing productivity and SMEs.

Why it matters: Without productivity gains, higher social and climate ambitions risk colliding with a stagnating private sector.
6. Ecopetrol Balances Fossil Revenues With a Solar Bet and Governance Overhaul (Nov 13–14)
Ecopetrol reported a 30% year-on-year drop in Q3 net profit as lower crude prices and volumes hit earnings, though it still plans to execute around $6.3 billion in investments in 2025 and drill additional exploration wells.

It also closed a deal to acquire about 0.6 GW of solar projects from Statkraft and secured shareholder approval for bylaw changes and new senior appointments.

Supporters see a blend of energy-transition ambition and improved oversight; critics fear politicization.

Summary: Ecopetrol is pushing ahead with heavy capex while signaling alignment with the government's transition agenda.

Why it matters: Its strategy will shape fiscal revenues, emissions paths and perceptions of political risk.
7. Frontera Energy Spins Off Colombian Infrastructure to Unlock Value (Nov 13)
Frontera Energy announced plans to spin off its Colombian midstream infrastructure into a new company, Frontera Infrastructure, leaving the parent as a pure E&P player.

The move coincided with Q3 results showing solid earnings and infrastructure EBITDA led by the ODL pipeline.

Management argues that separating stable infrastructure cash flows from upstream risk will improve capital allocation and financing options.

Summary: Frontera is restructuring into distinct upstream and infrastructure vehicles to surface value.

Why it matters: The deal underlines continued investor interest in Colombian energy logistics despite policy uncertainty.
8. Social State Under Strain: Health-Insurance Rescue and Free Higher-Education Push (with new signals Nov 14)
Colombia's broad social-reform agenda continued to unfold, with fresh attention on healthcare and universities.

Petro defended plans for a majority state stake in Nueva EPS, arguing the government already effectively carries much of its debt.

Rectors of public universities publicly backed making tuition-free higher education a right, and the president amplified their call. Business groups warn of rising compliance costs and long-term fiscal pressures.

Summary: New moves on Nueva EPS and free higher education show the administration doubling down on an expansive welfare agenda.

Why it matters: The ability to stabilize insurers and fund universities will shape perceptions of Petro's reform project before 2026.
9. Santa Marta EU–CELAC Summit Positions Colombia as a Platform for Non-US Diplomacy (Nov 9–10)
Colombia hosted the EU–CELAC summit in Santa Marta, producing a roadmap for deeper cooperation on energy, food security, finance and digital ties.

The meeting was nonetheless overshadowed by anger over U.S. missile strikes on suspected drug boats, which Petro condemned in his opening speech.

Regional leaders used the venue to criticize perceived U.S. militarization and stress alternative partnerships.

Summary: The summit showcased Colombia as a convening hub for EU–Latin America cooperation and debate over U.S. security policy.

Why it matters: As ties with Washington face friction, Colombia is testing whether diversified diplomacy can deliver investment and political backing.
10. Colombia Steps Forward on Fossil-Fuel Phase-Out and Amazon Protection (COP30, Nov 13–14)
At COP30 in Belém, Colombia backed calls for a global roadmap away from fossil fuels and pledged to keep its share of the Amazon free of fossil-fuel and large-scale mining projects.

Bogotá also confirmed it will host an International Conference for the Phase-Out of Fossil Fuels in April 2026.

Supporters see a Global South leader pushing a just transition; critics point to ongoing domestic disputes over oil and mining.

Summary: Colombia used COP30 to link Amazon-protection plans with a diplomatic push for fossil-fuel phase-out.

Why it matters: Turning climate rhetoric into concrete home-grown policy could boost Colombia's clout – failure would invite accusations of greenwashing.



Bottom Line
Between November 10 and 14, Colombia juggled a sharp diplomatic clash with Washington, a new inflation shock and a difficult tax rewrite, while doubling down on ambitious social and climate agendas.

The week underlined how much the country's next phase depends on raising productivity, stabilizing public finances and managing its energy transition without derailing growth – under the close watch of voters, markets and increasingly fractious international partners.

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