(MENAFN- The Rio Times) Chile's week was dominated by the final stretch of a polarizing presidential campaign, with crime and migration eclipsing most other concerns and pushing candidates toward tougher security and border policies. At the same time, structural economic stories moved forward: a landmark Codelco–SQM lithium joint venture cleared its last major regulatory hurdle, a mid-tier copper project secured environmental approval, and the central bank reiterated its cautious stance after inflation fell back into its target range.

Social and infrastructure policy also stayed in focus, from voter-information and free-transport measures for Sunday's election to new electricity subsidies and a key high-voltage line approval to evacuate northern renewable energy.

Human-rights debates resurfaced around the Punta Peuco prison, while the 2026 budget fight between government and opposition intensified.

1. Security, migration and a fragmented right define Sunday's election (Nov 13–14) In the final days before the November 16 presidential vote, the campaign narrative crystallized around crime and migration rather than constitutional reform. Public safety now tops voter concerns, with worries over organized crime and rising homicides eclipsing economic issues. Right-wing candidate José Antonio Kast has surged by promising mass deportations, tougher borders and maximum-security prisons, while Communist candidate Jeannette Jara leads first-round polls with a platform that mixes social reforms with a firmer security agenda. Libertarian Johannes Kaiser and moderate conservative Evelyn Matthei further split the right-of-center vote, making a December runoff highly likely. Mandatory voting has been reinstated for the first time since 2012, adding millions of previously disengaged Chileans and injecting extra uncertainty into turnout and margins. Polls suggest Jara and Kast are the likeliest runoff contenders, but fear over crime, anti-immigrant rhetoric and voter volatility could still reshuffle the field. Summary: Chile heads into Sunday's vote with security and migration overshadowing all other issues and no candidate favored to win outright.

Why it matters: The outcome will decide whether Chile moves toward a tougher, more market-friendly right or a left coalition trying to restore security without abandoning its social agenda.

2. Crime fears and Tren de Aragua shape a harsher security debate (Nov 13) New reporting underlined how the Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua and other groups have changed the security landscape, especially in northern border towns such as Colchane. Chile's homicide rate has more than doubled since the mid-2010s, and kidnappings are at record levels, with prosecutors linking a large share to organized crime. Residents describe a shift from leaving doors unlocked to living behind locks, cameras and guards, and surveys show crime now outranks inflation, health and education as the main public concern. This sense of insecurity anchors the campaigns of Kast and Kaiser, who promote fortified borders, mass expulsions and new police powers. The government and Jara's campaign, while rejecting the harshest rhetoric, have also toughened their stance, backing new security institutions, financial-crime tools and military deployments in high-risk areas. Experts warn that focusing almost exclusively on foreign criminals risks stigmatizing migrants and overlooking domestic criminal networks that have grown in parallel. Summary: A sharp rise in violent crime and gang activity has pushed Chile toward far tougher security and migration policies across the political spectrum.

Why it matters: The framing of crime as a migration problem will influence policing, civil liberties and the treatment of foreign communities well beyond this election cycle.

3. Punta Peuco becomes a common prison, reigniting human-rights battles (Nov 4–14) The government's decision to reclassify Punta Peuco, the special prison built for dictatorship-era human-rights violators, formally took effect this month and sparked a new political storm. On November 14, the facility received its first inmate convicted for a common crime, symbolizing the end of its exclusive status. Human-rights groups welcomed the move as a step toward equal treatment, noting that Punta Peuco already operated above its designed capacity and still houses notorious former agents linked to torture and disappearances. Critics on the right accused the government of seeking symbolic victories instead of focusing on today's crime wave and pledged to reverse or dilute the change if they gain power. The Punta Peuco dispute has spilled into the campaign, pitting the left's emphasis on historical accountability against conservative calls to prioritize contemporary victims. It shows how unresolved debates over the Pinochet era remain entwined with current politics despite voters' day-to-day concerns over inflation and security. Summary: Turning Punta Peuco into a regular prison ended a long-standing exception for dictatorship criminals but ignited fresh controversy during the campaign.

Why it matters: The decision crystallizes tensions between human-rights accountability and“law-and-order” messaging that will shape any incoming government's justice agenda.

4. Codelco–SQM lithium joint venture clears China's antitrust hurdle (Nov 10) On November 10, China's competition authority gave conditional approval to the long-negotiated lithium joint venture between state-owned Codelco and private producer SQM. The deal, centerpiece of Chile's new public-private lithium strategy, will give Codelco a 51% stake in Atacama operations and extend production there through 2060 once SQM's current contract ends in 2030. With regulators in Chile, the EU, Brazil, Japan, South Korea and Saudi Arabia already on board, Beijing's decision removed the last major regulatory obstacle. China imposed conditions to protect its battery and electric-vehicle makers, including guaranteed minimum volumes on terms tied to global benchmarks and limits on anti-competitive information-sharing. Chilean officials expect the agreement to be fully in force before the current administration leaves office in 2026, despite political opposition and legal challenges from SQM's Chinese shareholder Tianqi. For Chile, the project is central to moving from simple raw-material supplier to state-steered player in the energy-transition value chain. Summary: Final Chinese approval puts Codelco's lithium partnership with SQM within reach of closing, locking in Atacama production and state control for decades.

Why it matters: The joint venture will shape global lithium supply, Chile's fiscal take and the balance between state and private capital in a flagship growth sector.

5. Central bank holds rates at 4.75% but flags renewed inflation risks (Oct–Nov) Minutes of the central bank's October meeting show board members unanimously agreed to keep the benchmark rate at 4.75% as the only realistic option. October inflation surprised on the downside, with annual CPI dropping into the mid-3% range, the lowest since 2021, but the board stressed upside risks from external volatility, exchange-rate swings and domestic price rigidities. Officials also noted that earlier cuts have already brought policy closer to neutral after the sharp tightening of 2021–22. Market economists now expect the bank to wait for more data before considering further easing at its mid-December meeting, especially given electoral uncertainty and Chile's sensitivity to copper and lithium prices. For households, softer inflation and still-high real rates mean some relief in purchasing power but continued pressure on credit costs. For the next administration, the minutes signal limited room to finance new promises with looser monetary policy if inflation pressures re-emerge. Summary: The central bank is keeping rates on hold despite softer inflation, signaling caution until it better understands external and domestic price pressures.

Why it matters: Monetary policy will stay relatively tight into the election transition, constraining fiscal space and credit-driven growth regardless of who wins.

6. Opposition challenges 2026 budget, alleging US$1.5 billion revenue gap (Nov 11) On November 11, opposition parties Renovación Nacional and UDI delivered an 11-point memorandum to the Finance Ministry proposing adjustments of around US$1.5 billion to the 2026 budget bill. They accuse the government of overestimating tax revenues, particularly from a new anti-evasion law, and warn that planned spending implies what they call irresponsible growth near 4%. Their counter-proposal calls for higher funding for the Comptroller's Office, social housing and elderly-focused programs such as“Más Adulto Mayor.” The opposition also seeks cuts to government goods and services, deeper reductions in public-sector training and even a merger of two ministries as a symbolic consolidation move. Finance officials say negotiations remain open and point to updated revenue projections as a possible compromise. The clash shows how fiscal debates are merging with campaign narratives, with conservatives portraying the government as lax and the left warning that cuts could undermine oversight and social protection. Summary: Opposition parties are demanding sizeable changes to the 2026 budget, arguing that revenues are overstated and key oversight and social programs underfunded.

Why it matters: The way this budget fight is resolved will signal the fiscal constraints and political bargaining style investors can expect in 2026.

7. Marimaca's oxide copper project wins environmental approval (Nov 12) Marimaca Copper announced on November 12 that Chilean authorities granted environmental approval for its flagship oxide project in the Antofagasta region. The open-pit, heap-leach mine is designed to produce roughly 50,000 tonnes of copper cathodes per year over 13 years, using seawater from the Bay of Mejillones to limit freshwater use. The approval followed years of studies, community consultations and archaeological work and was completed in under 12 months, unusually fast for a major mining project. Marimaca will now seek auxiliary permits and finalize an investment decision, with construction targeted for the second half of 2026 and further growth expected from a nearby satellite deposit. Analysts describe the approval as a key de-risking step that confirms Chile's continued competitiveness for mid-tier copper developments despite more complex permitting. With Codelco struggling with aging assets and lower output, new private projects like Marimaca are important to keeping Chile's overall copper production stable. Summary: Environmental clearance for Marimaca's oxide project moves a 50,000-tonne-per-year copper mine closer to construction in northern Chile.

Why it matters: The project will help shore up Chile's copper pipeline at a time of global shortages and domestic pressure on traditional giants like Codelco.

8. Sky Airline to join Abra Group, deepening airline consolidation (Nov 10–12) Abra Group said on November 10 that it reached an agreement-in-principle for Chilean low-cost carrier Sky Airline to join its portfolio, which already includes Avianca, Gol and other operators. Financial terms were not disclosed, but Abra will consolidate Sky once the deal closes, while existing shareholders become minority investors. Sky will keep its brand and management, with chairman Holger Paulmann remaining in place, while benefiting from shared networks, fleet planning and financing. For Chilean travelers, the deal could mean better route integration and loyalty options but also raises competition concerns on key domestic and regional corridors where low-cost carriers have pushed down fares. Regulators are expected to scrutinize overlaps with Gol and Avianca, especially on trunk routes linking Santiago with other South American hubs. Strategically, the move confirms Chile's importance in regional aviation consolidation, despite economic headwinds and lingering post-pandemic pressure on airlines. Summary: Sky Airline is set to join the Abra Group, linking Chile's main low-cost carrier more closely with Avianca and Gol under one holding.

Why it matters: The deal could reshape competition and connectivity in Chilean and regional skies, with implications for fares and network strategy.

9. Kimal–Lo Aguirre high-voltage line secures environmental green light (Nov 14) The government announced on November 14 that the Kimal–Lo Aguirre transmission line received its environmental qualification, clearing a critical step for one of Chile's most important grid projects. The long-distance line will move renewable power, especially northern solar, toward central Chile, easing congestion and reducing curtailment of clean generation. Officials framed it as part of a broader portfolio of large energy and transmission investments approved in 2025, arguing that faster permitting is essential to meet decarbonization targets. Developers must still secure financing and right-of-way agreements, and local opposition is likely along parts of the route, but environmental approval significantly lowers project risk. Once built, the line should help integrate more storage and flexible generation, lower long-term energy costs and support electrification of industry and transport around Santiago. Its timing, days before a pivotal election, also gives the outgoing government a concrete achievement for its energy-transition record. Summary: Chile granted environmental approval to the Kimal–Lo Aguirre transmission line, a flagship project to move northern solar power to central demand centers.

Why it matters: Strengthening the grid is vital if Chile is to turn its renewable resources into lower prices, more reliable supply and real emissions cuts.

10. New electricity subsidy window opens for vulnerable households (Nov 10–13) Authorities opened a new application window for the“Subsidio Eléctrico,” a targeted discount on electricity bills for lower-income households. The benefit applies a credit directly to utility bills rather than paying cash, with amounts scaled by household size, from roughly the equivalent of 30,000 pesos for single-person homes to higher relief for larger families. The new call extends support into late 2025, with credits applied to future billing cycles. The subsidy sits at the heart of a broader debate over how to shield vulnerable users from tariff adjustments linked to past price freezes and deferred increases. Business groups warn that repeated subsidies risk distorting price signals and straining public finances, while social organizations argue that without them, energy poverty will worsen, especially in colder regions. Rolled out just before Sunday's vote, the program also serves as a showcase for the government's claim that it is still using fiscal space to protect the most exposed households. Summary: Chile reopened applications for its targeted electricity subsidy, extending bill discounts for low-income households into the coming months.

Why it matters: The measure highlights how energy affordability, fiscal constraints and electoral politics are intersecting as Chile plans its next policy cycle.

Bottom line: Between a security-driven election, a landmark lithium joint venture, cautious central bank signaling and steady movement on copper and energy projects, Chile ended the week with its long-term economic model in play and its immediate political direction still wide open.

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