(MENAFN- The Rio Times) Global data this week pointed to an economy that is still expanding but increasingly uneven.

Inflation pressures continued to cool in several key emerging markets and in Europe, while growth and confidence indicators in the US, UK and China underlined that policy mistakes-cutting too quickly or staying tight too long-are now the main risk.

From a Brazil-centric vantage point, the week reinforced the sense of a world edging toward lower rates in 2026, but with fragile demand and high political uncertainty.
United States
In the US, the narrative was“soft landing, but with more doubt.”

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index slipped to 98.2 in October, a six-month low, while the PCSI composite confidence gauge eased and Redbook retail sales growth held at 5.9% year on year.

Treasury auctions cleared smoothly, with the 3-year at 3.579%, the 10-year at 4.074% and the 30-year at 4.694%, suggesting investors are comfortable with current yield levels.

Federal Reserve officials sent mixed signals on a possible December rate cut: Raphael Bostic and Susan Collins warned against easing again, while Mary Daly stressed keeping an“open mind.”

Mortgage rates around 6.34% have not killed demand-applications rose modestly-but the Fed's balance sheet at about $6.58 trillion underlines that overall financial conditions remain restrictive.
Europe and UK
Europe delivered slightly better-than-feared numbers. Eurozone GDP for the third quarter was confirmed at 0.2% quarter-on-quarter and 1.4% year-on-year, with employment up 0.1%.

German headline and HICP inflation held at 2.3%, while French and Spanish inflation moved closer to 1–3%, supporting the view that the ECB is now near, but not yet at, an easing phase.

Survey data were more cautious: Sentix investor confidence weakened to −7.4, even as ZEW expectations for Germany improved.

Italy's industrial production rebounded in September, but France's unemployment ticked up to 7.7%.

In the UK, a weak data bundle-GDP barely positive in the third quarter, industrial production down 2.0% in September and unemployment at 5.0%-pushed markets to price a high probability of a Bank of England rate cut in December.




Asia
Asia sent mixed signals. Japan's coincident and leading indices improved, the current-account surplus widened above ¥4.4 trillion and machine tool orders jumped 16.8% year on year, pointing to a tentative industrial recovery supported by a weaker yen.

Australia combined a sharp rebound in consumer sentiment with strong October job creation (+42,200 positions, unemployment down to 4.3%) and booming investor housing finance, complicating the Reserve Bank's fight against underlying inflation.

China's October data were the week's main negative surprise: industrial production slowed to 4.9% year on year, retail sales to 2.9%, fixed-asset investment fell 1.7% and credit growth and housing indicators remained soft.

Beijing responded with fresh promises to boost consumption and tackle overcapacity, but markets read the numbers as confirmation that China's structural slowdown is deepening.

Korea and New Zealand showed more resilience, with Korean unemployment at 2.6% and New Zealand's PMI back above 50, helped by strong net migration.
Major Emerging Markets
In Brazil, October's IPCA inflation printed just 0.09% month-on-month and 4.68% year-on-year, the lowest October reading since 1998, while core measures and the service sector (up 4.1% year-on-year) suggested domestic demand is cooling rather than collapsing.

Retail sales dipped 0.3% month-on-month but remained modestly positive on the year, and the IGP-10 wholesale inflation index rose only 0.2%.

Copom minutes and the Focus survey reinforced the message that the Selic will likely stay at 15% into year-end, with markets increasingly betting on rate cuts in early 2026 rather than an early move in December.

South Africa reported some progress, with unemployment down to 31.9% and mining and gold output back in positive territory, though the budget deficit near 4.8% of GDP and a large nominal shortfall kept fiscal risks in focus.

Mexico's industrial production remained negative both month-on-month and year-on-year, pointing to a loss of momentum in manufacturing despite continued nearshoring headlines.

India moved further into disinflation territory, with wholesale inflation at −1.21% year-on-year and food prices sharply negative, even as bank credit growth stayed above 11%, giving the Reserve Bank more policy space later if growth slows.
Commodities & Flows
Oil and broader energy markets pivoted toward an oversupply narrative. The IEA's November Oil Market Report and the World Energy Outlook flagged a potential surplus of just over 4 million barrels per day in 2026.

OPEC's own November report described a near-balanced market, highlighting a growing gap between producer and consumer agencies.

The US EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook projected rising global inventories and Brent prices drifting into the mid-$50s per barrel next year.

Weekly data backed that story: US crude inventories jumped by 6.4 million barrels, far above expectations, even as gasoline and distillate stocks fell only modestly.

Brent traded around the low-$60s after a sharp mid-week sell-off, and US rig counts edged higher, signaling that supply remains responsive at current price levels.

On the financial side, reserve balances at the Fed rose slightly and euro-area reserve assets climbed above €1.7 trillion, suggesting central banks still have ample liquidity buffers even as they talk tough on rates.
Risks and Framing
Taken together, the week's numbers reinforced three big themes. First, disinflation is real but uneven,

Europe and major emerging markets such as Brazil and India are seeing price pressures ease faster than policymakers expected, while US inflation remains high enough to keep the Fed split on further cuts.

Second, growth is losing altitude in key manufacturing hubs-China, Mexico, parts of Europe-even as labor markets in the US and Asia-Pacific remain tight, raising the risk that central banks misjudge how quickly demand is fading.

Third, the oil market is shifting from scarcity fears to surplus worries, which should help headline inflation but could hurt commodity-exporting economies and investment in new supply.

For Brazil and other investment-grade emerging markets, this configuration still looks broadly supportive: a world of lower energy prices, slower but positive growth in advanced economies and a likely turn toward rate cuts in 2026, but with much less room for policy or geopolitical accidents than earlier in the cycle.

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