(MENAFN) Global carbon emissions from fossil fuels are projected to reach an unprecedented peak this year, a recent report cautioned, with increases accelerating in the U.S. and European Union while moderating in China and India.

At the current trajectory, researchers warned, the planet could breach the 1.5C warming threshold within four years.

The latest Global Carbon Budget report presents a contradictory outlook, authors noted, demonstrating that despite expanding renewable energy adoption and emission reductions in certain regions, global warming remains poised to intensify.

The report projects fossil fuel emissions will surge 1.1 percent, hitting 38.1 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide this year.

"These findings are in line with recent years, showing a regional shift in fossil fuel emissions but with an overall continuing increase," said Anna Michalak, founding director of the Carnegie Climate and Resilience Hub at the Carnegie Institution for Science, according to media.

The report emerged as world leaders convened in Belem, Brazil for the 30th UN Climate Conference (COP30), with the United States conspicuously absent.

"The world has not been able to meet the ambitious goals outlined in the Paris Agreement," Michalak said, referring to the 2015 treaty aimed at limiting global warming to 1.5C above preindustrial levels.

A separate International Energy Agency report cautions that under existing global energy policies, the world is heading toward nearly 3C warming by 2100.

Even if nations execute their planned strengthened clean-energy policies, with coal and oil demand anticipated to peak by 2030, global warming would still approach 2.5C, the report indicated.

Renewable energy expansion suggests China and the globe should be approaching a fossil CO2 emissions peak, but relentless increases in worldwide energy demand and fossil fuel consumption continue postponing that turning point, Glen Peters, a senior researcher at the Center for International Climate Research and a Carbon Budget report co-author, told media.

"Eventually, emissions will peak. We just don't know when," he added.

Peters explained countries' annual emissions patterns reflect both weather conditions and energy consumption.

China's emissions, following years of explosive growth, have essentially plateaued over the past two years as renewable investments multiplied, with a modest 0.4 percent increase anticipated this year. India's emissions are forecast to climb 1.4 percent, a reduced rate partially attributed to an early monsoon that diminished cooling requirements.

In the EU, emissions rebounded upward due to colder weather increasing heating demands and weaker winds reducing wind power generation.

US emissions are projected to increase 1.9 percent following a more typical winter and elevated natural gas prices, which prompted greater coal utilization, Peters observed.

Peters noted emissions have declined in over 35 countries during the past decade despite economic expansion, with numerous developing nations scaling up solar and wind capacity.

Professor Pierre Friedlingstein, a prominent climate scientist and director of the Global Carbon Budget project, acknowledged the urgency.

"We're running out of time…but we can still see progress."

MENAFN15112025000045017169ID1110348084