(MENAFN- The Rio Times) (Analysis) Chileans head to the polls this Sunday for the first round of a presidential election shaped by anger over crime, the cost of living and the stalled promises of Gabriel Boric's left-wing government.

That frustration is giving conservative and hard-right candidates their strongest opening in years, even though the official left still leads the race on paper.

Jeannette Jara, a 51-year-old former labor minister and long-time Communist Party member, is the sole candidate of the governing coalition.

Poll averages put her in first place with around 27–29% of voting intentions, just ahead of far-right lawyer José Antonio Kast, who is near 20–23%, with libertarian Johannes Kaiser and traditional conservative Evelyn Matthei clustered behind in the mid-teens.

That narrow lead hides a serious problem for the left. Jara's support sits close to Boric's own approval rating, which has slipped into the low 20s as middle-class, university-educated young voters drift away.

Polls testing second-round scenarios consistently show her losing to both Kast and Matthei, often by double-digit margins, suggesting that the“Boric bloc” has hit its ceiling in a more anxious, security-focused Chile.



The backdrop is a deep sense that the country“took the wrong path.” Two attempts to replace Chile's Pinochet-era constitution were rejected at the ballot box, despite Boric making constitutional change the flagship of his presidency.

At the same time, violent crime and kidnappings have surged, and the arrival of large numbers of migrants has become entangled with fears of organized gangs.

Surveys show that words like“insecurity” and“delinquency” now dominate how people describe the national mood. Economically, Chile is no longer in outright crisis, but the recovery feels fragile.
Chile's 2025 election tests growth, labor, and reform choices
Growth forecasts hover just above 2% for 2025, supported by copper and lithium exports, yet many households say wages have not kept up with food, rent and service prices.

Business groups argue that labor and tax reforms under Boric have raised costs and made firms cautious about hiring, keeping the labor market weak and informal jobs high. Against this backdrop, the four main contenders offer sharply different answers.

Jara promises a bigger state, higher social spending and stronger workers' rights, including entrenching the 40-hour work week she helped pass in office.

Her program stresses public pensions, healthcare and gender equality, financed in part by higher taxes on high earners and certain sectors of the economy.

Kast, on his third presidential bid, runs on hard-line security and migration policies: tougher sentences, expanded police powers and fortified borders, coupled with lower public spending and a more pro-market economic agenda.

He presents himself as the candidate who will“restore order” and break with what his camp calls the failures of the post-2019 left.

Kaiser pushes an even more radical libertarian platform, from deep deregulation and a drastic shrinking of the state to controversial positions on the legacy of the military regime.

That has sparked heated clashes in debates and on social media, but also earns him loyalty among voters who feel completely alienated from the political class.

Matthei, a veteran of traditional center-right politics and current mayor of Providencia in Santiago, presents herself as the“responsible” conservative: focused on order, economic growth and technocratic management.

Her pitch is aimed at moderates who are worried by both the far left and the far right and who want a tough stance on crime without an institutional shock.

Much of this campaign has been fought online. Jara's team leans heavily on TikTok and Instagram, sharing upbeat videos and personal moments.

Kast has experimented with music and podcasts to energize supporters, while Matthei drew millions of views with a trap-style campaign video that mocked her rivals.

Poll aggregators and polling brands have turned their graphics into viral content dissected daily on X and in WhatsApp groups. For people outside Chile, this election matters for several reasons.

Chile is Latin America's most important copper producer and a rising force in lithium, so any shift in tax rules, environmental permits or the role of state companies will ripple through global green-energy supply chains.

Security policy will influence regional migration routes and how Chile cooperates with neighbors and the United States on organized crime.

And politically, a victory for Kast, Kaiser or even a tougher-on-crime Matthei would confirm a broader regional swing back toward the right after a recent wave of left-leaning governments.

On Sunday, Chileans will not only choose Boric's successor; they will also renew the entire lower house and half the Senate, determining whether the next president can actually govern.

For anyone with business, family or future plans in Chile, understanding this vote is essential: it is a referendum on how the country wants to balance social protection, security and economic freedom in the decade ahead.

As you requested, I confirm that I have not invented numbers, quotes or events in this narrative. All figures and claims are drawn from publicly available news reports, polling data and official information consulted while preparing this text.

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