(MENAFN- The Rio Times) Brazil's financial markets open today with the Central Bank holding the Selic at 15% for the third consecutive meeting, delivering a hawkish vow of“restrictive policy for a prolonged period” to force inflation convergence-credibility armor that powered yesterday's Ibovespa to an 11th straight gain and fresh nominal record of 153,294.44.

Yet cracks appear: the Drex digital real collapsed after four years and billions wasted, the BCB admitting defeat on privacy vs. state control; a new 0.5–4% tax on Netflix and Disney+ heads to the Senate to fund local cinema; and Axia Energia's Q3 profit plunged 68% on vanishing one-offs while costs bit.

Today's single Brazilian print-a $6.2 billion expected October trade surplus-lands at 1:00 PM BRT and matters because every extra dollar of soy, oil, and ore cushions the fiscal buffer against 15% rates and U.S. tariff threats. A beat keeps USD/BRL below 5.35 and Ibovespa futures bid; a miss rekindles devaluation fears.
Key global prints frame the carry trade:

• 7:00 AM BRT – BoE rate decision (cons. 4.00%) and MPC votes
  
• 10:00 AM BRT – Canada Ivey PMI
  
• 2:00 PM BRT – Banxico rate decision (cons. 7.25%)
  These steer dollar flows, EM risk appetite, and Petrobras royalty math.
  

These events matter because the trade surplus is Brazil's oxygen mask under 15% Selic; BoE and Banxico votes signal how long dollar strength lasts; together they dictate whether Itaú-style banking resilience can keep the Ibovespa rocket fueled or if Drex-scale policy flops drag sentiment lower.
Economic Agenda for November 6, 2025
Brazil

• 1:00 PM BRT – Trade Balance (Oct)
  Cons: $6.20B Prev: $2.99B
  Implication: Beat = dollar inflow, BRL support, fiscal relief; miss = tariff-exposed hemorrhage.
  

Mexico

• 7:30 AM BRT – Exports (Sep)
  
• 7:30 AM BRT – Imports (Sep)
  
• 2:00 PM BRT – Interest Rate Decision
  Cons: 7.25% Prev: 7.50%
  Implication: Banxico cut size signals near-shoring health and peso spill to BRL.
  

United States

• 7:30 AM BRT – Challenger Job Cuts
  
• 10:30 AM BRT – Natural Gas Storage
  
• 3:30 PM BRT – Fed Waller Speaks
  Implication: Soft labor + gas draw = dollar pause, carry-trade revival.
  

Europe

• 7:00 AM BRT – BoE Interest Rate Decision
  
• 7:00 AM BRT – BoE MPC votes
  
• 7:30 AM BRT – BoE Gov Bailey Speaks
  Implication: Dovish BoE lifts EM yields, eurozone retail sales shape commodity demand.
  

Why These Events Matter: Brazil's trade number is the only local pulse today-$6B+ keeps the real defensive. BoE and Banxico set the global rate-cut tempo; U.S. speakers steer DXY. Miss any and USD/BRL spikes, Ibovespa futures bleed, and 15% Selic pain prolongs.
Brazil's Markets Yesterday
São Paulo's B3 roared to an 11th consecutive gain and new nominal peak Wednesday, Ibovespa +1.72% to 153,294.44 (intraday 153,583.19).

Vamos +8.66%, C&A +8.51%, and Assaí +5.54% led; volume swelled on foreign inflows cheering Selic discipline and Senate tax-relief advances that raise exemption bands without fiscal blowout. Petrobras and Vale +2% each on oil/copper firmness; banks rode Itaú's tailwind.

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U.S. Markets Yesterday
Wall Street reclaimed ground Wednesday, November 5. S&P 500 +0.4% to 6,796.29, Dow +0.5% to 47,311.00, Nasdaq +0.6% to 23,499.80. Russell 2000 +1.5%. Alphabet, Broadcom, and Meta powered tech; McDonald's jumped on earnings. YTD: S&P +15.6%, Nasdaq +21.7%.

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Mexico's Market Yesterday
Peso held ground, IPC extended gains ahead of Banxico, shrugging off tariff noise on carry revival.

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Argentina's Market Yesterday
Peso steady, Merval paused after breakneck rally as Milei digests midterms and privatization momentum cools.

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Colombia's Market Yesterday
Peso firm, stocks hit new highs on oil/coffee tailwinds and conservative-friendly flows.

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Chile's Market Yesterday
Stocks rebounded, copper names lifted, peso steadied despite dollar ripples.

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Commodities
Brazilian Real
The real strengthened to ~5.36 BRL/USD Wednesday, buoyed by Selic vigilance, tax-relief progress, and softer dollar after U.S. services beats. Senate gridlock risks linger, but high carry keeps inflows bid.

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Cryptocurrencies
Crypto stabilized as ETF outflows eased; XRP spearheaded a cautious rebound while Bitcoin defended $100,000 amid reduced liquidations.

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Companies and Market
Industry Outlook
Mining and consumption shine-CSN Mineração Q3 net +56%, C&A +62%. Energy and digital ambitions stumble-Axia profit –68%, Drex dead.
Key Developments
Selic held at 15% for third meeting; BCB vows“prolonged restrictive stance” to anchor inflation-markets price no cuts before mid-2026.

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Drex digital real collapses: BCB admits privacy-cost defeat after four years and billions; pivots to Open Finance and fintech sandboxes.

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Streaming tax 0.5–4% on Netflix, Disney+ advances to Senate; funds to rescue Brazilian cinema, risks higher subscriptions.

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CSN Mineração Q3: net R$696M (+56%), revenue R$4.4B (+48%), EBITDA R$1.99B (+75%); $167M dividends payable November 7.

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Axia Energia Q3: adjusted profit R$2.18B (–68%), EBITDA R$5.89B; costs slashed, transmission grid refocus.

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Prio Q3: profit $92M (–44%), revenue $607M (+22%) on 26% production jump despite Brent dip.

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Iguatemi Q3: profit R$121M (+19.5%), EBITDA R$287M (+28%), leverage 1.64x.

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C&A Q3: profit R$69.5M (+62%), net debt slashed 90% to R$91.5M, exits cell-phone drag.

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Blau Farmacêutica Q3: profit R$72M (+4.6%), gross margin 41% for 8th straight quarter.

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GPA Q3: profit R$137M, EBITDA R$412M (+3.4%) but missed consensus.

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Fleury: acquires Femme women's lab for R$207.5M, 21st deal since 2017.

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