(MENAFN- Live Mint) Donald Trump isn't on any of the cards today, but his presidency and policies are one of the key things people are voting on. As millions of Americans cast their ballots in gubernatorial and local elections across New Jersey, Virginia, and New York, President Donald Trump faces a pivotal moment.

The nation is now entering the 35th day of a government shutdown - tying the longest in US history - as frustration mounts over stalled negotiations in Washington and uncertainty about the administration's next move.

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The lengthy standoff between President Donald Trump and congressional Democratic leaders is poised to become the longest government shutdown in American history this week.

Election Day on Tuesday, when voters will head to the polls in Virginia, New Jersey and New York, will tie the record for the longest shutdown.

If the shutdown continues into Wednesday, which lawmakers believe is almost certain, it will shatter that record, set during Trump's first term. That 35-day federal closure in late 2018 and early 2019 resulted from a fight over Trump's demand for a border wall, which Democrats refused to fund.

Why is this election seen as a test for Trump?

A message is written in chalk on the ground on 36th Avenue on November 03, 2025 in the Astoria neighborhood of the Queens borough in New York City. On the eve of Election Day, Mamdani was joined by elected officials as he spoke during a volunteer canvass launch in Astoria. Mamdani, who leads in the polls and is the front runner in the mayoral election, is running against Independent New York City mayoral candidate Andrew Cuomo and Republican mayoral candidate Curtis Sliwa. More than 735,000 people have voted early, according to the Board of Elections, more than four times as many as in the 2021 contest.

Tuesday's elections mark the first major public verdict on President Trump's second term, with voters in key states heading to the polls amid a prolonged political standoff that has left federal workers unpaid and critical services stalled.

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Gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia, alongside a New York City mayoral race and a California redistricting initiative, offer early signs of how Americans are reacting to Trump's leadership - and whether public dissatisfaction might translate into political change.

“There are plenty of reasons not to read too much into these races,” analysts caution, noting that opposition voters often turn out in higher numbers during early cycles. Still, the results will serve as a barometer of political mood heading into next year's crucial midterm elections.

What does the shutdown mean for Trump's presidency?

The 35-day federal shutdown - triggered by Donald Trump's standoff with congressional Democrats over spending priorities - has already tied the record set during his first term in 2018–2019. If it extends another day, it will become the longest in US history.

Trump's administration remains defiant, with the president insisting that“pain for millions” will end only when Democrats concede. Speaking to 60 Minutes, Trump maintained that the impasse was“a necessary stand for America's future,” even as polls show growing discontent.

Critics, however, describe the crisis as a self-inflicted wound, emblematic of a presidency defined by confrontation. As Trump“blasts suspected cartel speedboats out of the oceans” and“sends troops into American cities,” observers note a growing pattern of executive overreach.

How are Democrats positioning themselves?

People walk through a Brooklyn neighborhood on November 03, 2025, in New York City. New Yorkers are preparing to go to the polls tomorrow to vote for a new mayor to lead the nation's largest city. The latest polls show the front-runner continues to be Zohran Mamdani, who has campaigned from the left and has made the cost of living in one of the world's most expensive cities his primary issue. It is estimated that the cost of living in New York City is 132% higher than the national average.

Democrats, buoyed by anger over the shutdown and the president's polarising rhetoric, are rallying voters around issues of affordability, healthcare, and governance. In New Jersey, Democratic nominee Mikie Sherrill, a former Navy pilot, has directly tied her campaign to opposition against Trump.

“He'll do whatever Trump tells him to do, and I will fight anybody to work for you,” Sherrill declared during her debate with Republican challenger Jack Ciattarelli, branding him a“Trump clone.”

Former President Barack Obama, campaigning in support of Sherrill, delivered one of the party's sharpest rebukes yet of Trump's record.

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“There is absolutely no evidence that Republican policies have made life better for the people in New Jersey,” Obama said.“They have devoted enormous energy to entrenching themselves in power, punishing their enemies, enriching their friends, silencing their critics... But what they haven't done is help you.”

Can Trump's political wall hold in New Jersey and Virginia?

A sticker expresses dissatisfaction with President Donald Trump on November 01, 2025 in Chicago, Illinois. The Trump administration's Operation Midway Blitz, an organized effort to round-up and deport undocumented immigrants in Chicago and the surrounding suburbs, has been the target of frequent protests and growing opposition from state and local political leaders

If the Trump political wall begins to crumble, observers say the first cracks could appear in New Jersey, where Ciattarelli faces a difficult balance: energising Trump's base while appealing to moderate voters uneasy about the president's style.

Ciattarelli has defended his alignment with Trump on policy grounds:“He's right about securing the border; inflation is much lower than under Biden; he halted offshore wind; he's pushing back on New York's congestion pricing; and he quadrupled the SALT deduction.”

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But analysts note that Ciattarelli's path is tougher than that of Glenn Youngkin, the Virginia Republican who won four years ago during an anti-Democratic wave.“The cultural issues that helped propel Youngkin to Richmond appear to have lacked the same resonance for Republicans this fall,” one expert observed.

What do experts say the results could reveal?

According to Kristoffer Shields, director of the Eagleton Center on the American Governor at Rutgers University, local factors like“utility rates and property taxes” are driving the New Jersey race. However, he added, the contest could provide broader lessons about the national mood.

“New Jersey has arguably moved to the right over the last couple of election cycles,” Shields said.“It's going to be really interesting to see if that continues in this race or if the reaction to the Trump presidency pushes it back to the left.”

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For Democrats, Shields suggested, the challenge lies in unity:“Whether the fractured Democratic Party is able to come together and really drive turnout for a fairly moderate candidate is a key question.”

On the Republican side, he added, the results could test the transferability of Trump's charisma.“There is a sense that Trump Republicans show up to vote for Trump, but don't always show up when other Republicans are at the top of the ticket.”

Could shifting demographics reshape the outcome?

US President Donald Trump.

In 2024, Trump made measurable gains among Black and Hispanic voters, fuelling Republican hopes of a long-term realignment. The question now is whether that support will endure without Donald Trump himself on the ballot.

In Passaic County, New Jersey - where Latinos make up around 43% of the population - Trump beat Vice President Kamala Harris by nearly three points last year, after losing the same area by 16 points in 2020. Yet analysts caution that enthusiasm may wane in his absence.

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A larger-than-expected Republican drop-off could signal the limits of Trump's appeal, especially amid criticism of his immigration policies and the faltering economy.

What happens next?

Should Democrats notch strong wins tonight, the results may fall on deaf ears inside the Oval Office. Donald Trump has long surrounded himself with loyalists who tell him what he wants to hear -“a Cabinet of yes-men and yes-women,” as critics put it.

Still, political tides are hard to resist. As one observer noted,“American politics never stands still, even for a president like Trump who tries to defy it.”

If Trump weathers the storm with minimal losses, he will once again demonstrate his remarkable political durability. But if tonight's elections swing decisively against him, the message from voters will be unmistakable: the Trump era may be entering its most fragile phase yet.

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