India and the US are closing in on a long-awaited trade deal that could set the stage for a dramatic expansion of bilateral commerce to $500 billion by 2030 - more than double the current value of $191 billion.

Officials say most sticking points have been resolved, even as New Delhi insists it will not rush into any agreement that compromises its economic sovereignty or policy flexibility.

A senior government official confirmed that“there has been convergence on most issues, and a deal is in sight.” The comments come amid renewed negotiations between the two countries following several rounds of technical talks led by Commerce Secretary Rajesh Agarwal and US Assistant Trade Representative Brendan Lynch.

Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal, who is spearheading India's trade diplomacy, reiterated that while India seeks an equitable partnership, it will resist political or economic pressure. Speaking at the Berlin Global Dialogue, he said:“We don't do deals in a hurry, and we don't do deals with deadlines, with a gun on our head. Trade pacts are not just about tariffs, they're about trust, long-term relationships and sustainable frameworks.”

Goyal dismissed suggestions that India would make concessions over its purchases of Russian oil or restrict its trade partnerships under external pressure.“India decides its relationships based solely on national interest. If somebody tells me I can't work with the EU or Kenya, that's not acceptable,” he remarked, adding that many Western nations continue to seek exemptions from sanctions while questioning India's policy choices.

The negotiations - first mandated in February 2025 when the leaders of both nations directed officials to craft a Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA) - have gained traction in recent months. The first tranche is expected to be concluded by autumn 2025, though Goyal cautioned that timelines should not override substance.

For both sides, the stakes are high. The US has remained India's largest trading partner for four consecutive years, accounting for about 18 per cent of India's total goods exports and 10.7 per cent of overall merchandise trade. In FY 2024-25, total trade between the two countries reached $131.84 billion, with Indian exports of $86.5 billion and imports of $45.34 billion.

However, recent months have seen headwinds: India's exports to the US fell 11.9 per cent in September due to new 50 per cent tariffs imposed by Washington, while imports from the US rose nearly 12 per cent, according to the Commerce Ministry.

The proposed trade pact aims to address these imbalances by phasing down punitive tariffs and expanding market access in goods, services, digital trade and clean-energy technology. It also seeks to enhance cooperation in critical supply chains - from semiconductors and pharmaceuticals to renewable energy - where both economies see strategic complementarity.

For the Trump administration, an India-US deal could strengthen its Indo-Pacific economic architecture and reduce China's dominance in regional supply chains. For India, it would consolidate access to its largest export market while anchoring foreign investment flows in manufacturing, technology and services.

Despite optimism, some hurdles remain. Washington is pressing for stronger intellectual-property protections and wider agricultural-market access, while India wants the US to roll back high import duties on steel, textiles and leather goods. Officials said the talks have narrowed differences but both sides are treading cautiously to avoid political fallout.

Recent geopolitical developments have added complexity. President Donald Trump's administration, in its second term, has imposed sweeping sanctions on Russian oil majors Rosneft and Lukoil to pressure Moscow into ending the Ukraine war. India has maintained that its continued purchases of Russian crude are purely to ensure affordable energy supplies and do not contravene international law.

Goyal underlined that India's trade diplomacy is driven by strategic autonomy:“We seek fair, long-term arrangements that respect each other's needs. It's not just about selling steel or software - it's about building trust between businesses and governments.”

Analysts note that a successful pact could unlock immense potential. With India's economy projected to touch $5 trillion by 2028 and the US expanding its Indo-Pacific trade footprint, bilateral trade could surpass $500 billion well before 2030 if tariff barriers ease and supply-chain cooperation accelerates.

As negotiations continue, both nations appear determined to move beyond transactional trade disputes towards a partnership anchored in shared growth.“We are in dialogue with the United States,” Goyal affirmed.“Talks are progressing, and we hope to achieve a fair and equitable agreement soon.”

If concluded, the accord would not only cement the US-India relationship as one of the world's most dynamic economic linkages but also signal a major milestone in re-shaping global trade flows for the coming decade

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