Scientists emphasize ‘nuclear winter’ possibility

(MENAFN) A full-scale nuclear war between the United States and Russia could trigger a catastrophic “nuclear winter” that would devastate Earth’s climate and agricultural systems, according to a study led by Yuning Shi, an assistant research professor at Pennsylvania State University. The findings were recently published in Environmental Research Letters.

The study estimates that such a conflict could release up to 150 million tons of soot into the atmosphere, drastically reducing sunlight and precipitation across the globe. The result would be a dramatic temperature drop—by more than 15°C on average—and widespread disruption to global food production.

One key focus of the research was maize, a vital global crop. The researchers warned that yields could decline by as much as 80%, while the drop in solar radiation and rainfall could reach up to 70%. In addition to the agricultural collapse, international trade and supply chains would likely break down, leading to severe regional or even worldwide famine. Recovery of food systems could take 7 to 12 years.

The scientists emphasized the urgency of preparing for such a scenario, especially as modern geopolitical tensions—such as the Ukraine war, India-Pakistan rivalry, and Middle East unrest—threaten the relatively stable nuclear landscape of the late Cold War period.

As a precaution, Shi’s team recommended developing “Agricultural Resilience Kits” tailored to specific climates and regions. These would include seeds and technologies designed to help maintain some level of food production in the event of a nuclear-induced environmental collapse.

The warning comes amid heightened rhetoric, including accusations by Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolay Patrushev that Western nations are fueling fears of nuclear war. While Russia has denied any intention to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine, it revised its nuclear doctrine in 2023 to allow such use in defense against large-scale threats from nuclear or heavily armed conventional forces.

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