Taiwan Is Under A Triple Security Threat

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Internally, Taiwan's two major political parties have fundamentally different views about how to deal with China. For the Kuomintang (KMT), China is eternally Taiwan's mother country, even if a rival government currently rules the mainland. If Taiwan does not intend to separate from China, China should have no reason to use military force against Taiwan. Many KMT politicians are therefore lukewarm about increasing the defense budget and about deepening security cooperation with the US.

The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), on the other hand, reflects Taiwanese nationalism. It grew out of opposition to the dictatorship imposed on Taiwan by the exiled KMT government from 1945 until the political liberalization of the late 1980s. For the DPP, China is an enemy country, Taiwan must prepare to defend its democratic way of life from annihilation, and the US is a crucial bulwark against Chinese aggression.

The schism between the politically Blue supporters (including the KMT) and Green supporters (DPP) is an obstacle to Taiwan deploying a coherent defense policy.

KMT politicians and other conservative commentators increasingly repeat CCP talking points. The Taiwan media outlet China Times, for example,“has morphed from a mainstream publication into what critics call a mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist party,” Financial Times observes . The owner of China Times is snack food billionaire Tsai Eng-meng, who owes his wealth to business in China and has a history of making pro-China statements.

One of these shared talking points is yimeilun, or skepticism toward America – the idea that Washington's master plan is to cause a war between Taiwan and China, and then abandon Taiwan, as a means of weakening China.

During Taiwan's 2024 presidential election campaign, Foxconn founder Terry Gou, originally a KMT candidate who later opted to run as an independent, said he opposed“buying weapons from the United States” because“If you don't have a knife or a gun, [China] may not specifically attack you.”

KMT candidate Hou You-yi and Blue-affiliated Taiwan People's Party candidate Ke Wen-je both complained about the US using Taiwan as a“chess piece,” a common theme in PRC propaganda. Alleged US unreliability supports the notion that a successful military defense of Taiwan against a PLA attack is impossible, so Taiwan should instead open negotiations with Beijing about Taiwan's political status.

Taiwan's 2020 Anti-Infiltration Act was controversial. The DPP said the law was necessary to prevent PRC influence over Taiwan's elections, but both the PRC government and the KMT opposed it. A Taiwan journalist alleged that the PRC's Taiwan Affairs Office was in daily communication with China Times and CtiTV, also owned by Tsai, to coordinate opposition to the law.

Lai's government is trying to increase defense spending, but a divided legislature is resisting. Although the DPP controls Taiwan's executive branch, a Blue coalition led by the KMT holds a slight majority in the legislature. \

In January, the legislature passed a budget that held back half of the funds allocated to Taiwan's submarine building program and cut funding for other military equipment including drones. It also trimmed 60% from the military's publicity budget, which pays for recruitment campaigns. KMT legislators argued that they were targeting wasteful spending.

Many analysts have long argued that a robust civil defense program would help dissuade China from attempting to conquer Taiwan. KMT politicians, however, have joined the PRC government in specifically attacking Taiwan's Kuma Academy, a private company that teaches civil defense skills.

The Trump factor

A third set of challenges to Taiwan's security comes from its long-time security partner.

The Trump administration wants Taiwan to spend more to build up its armed forces, which would imply buying more weapons from the US, Taiwan's only major foreign arms supplier. Both Trump and his nominee for Under Secretary of Defense Elbridge Colby have said Taiwan should be spending 10% of its GDP on defense. Taiwan's government has said meeting that goal would be impossible.

Developed countries typically have government budgets equivalent to 40 or 50% of GDP. Taiwan's national budget, however, is relatively small at only 14 percent of GDP. Even an increase of the defense budget to 5% of GDP would eat into other kinds of investment, such as education and infrastructure, that are also vital to national security.

The US has allowed its defense industrial base to wither to the point where it's uncertain America could prevail in a war against China. Even if many US weapons systems are qualitatively superior, China might win on the strength of its ability to out-produce the US in munitions and platforms. This means Taiwan might not be able to hold off a PLA assault even with US military intervention.