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Over the last few months, bitcoin has surpassed numerous resistance barriers, consistently reaching unprecedented heights each month. Currently, the cryptocurrency's most recent all-time high exceeds $109,000, reflecting an impressive growth of more than 150% compared to the previous year.
In light of this remarkable price action, CryptoQuant analyst Gaah has conducted a recent analysis of Bitcoin 's current market cycle position and is questioning if the Cryptocurrency might be approaching a peak .
Bitcoin: Is a Peak on the Horizon?
In Gaah's findings, the Bitcoin Cycle Indicators Index (IBCI)-a composite metric that aggregates various on-chain data sets including the Puell Multiple, MVRV, NUPL, and SOPR-has for the first time in eight months entered the“distribution region.”
Although this does not definitively indicate a market top, it acts as a warning sign that Bitcoin may be entering the concluding stages of the ongoing bull cycle. For IBCI to conclusively reach a peak, all its components must hit their historical maxima , as noted by the analyst.
Nonetheless, as long as the IBCI remains above the 50% threshold, the overall market trend continues to be optimistic, suggesting an ongoing demand and opportunities for further price growth.
In addition to the IBCI, Gaah points out that other on-chain indicators present a nuanced perspective. The NUPL metric is currently close to its upper range, hinting at a potential conclusion to the bull market, while the Puell Multiple is nearer to its lower zone, suggesting there could be potential for additional growth .
The interaction of these signals implies that the market may not have reached a clear peak just yet. Historically, a fully realized IBCI peak generally precedes corrections and longer-term bearish trends. However, the present situation provides a cautious sense of hope, assuming that demand continues to remain robust and other indicators align positively.
Divergent Insights
Offering a contrasting viewpoint, another CryptoQuant analyst, Burak Kesmeci, presents a different perspective through the lens of the Bitcoin NVT Golden Cross. This metric, created to detect local tops and bottoms, has recently reached its lowest level in 60 days, indicating a potential“local bottom.”
Kesmeci states that historically, when the NVT Golden Cross drops below -1.6, it often signifies that the cryptocurrency is operating in a lower price range. Following a recent decline of approximately 7.5% after reaching its all-time high, the current metric value may be indicative of potential upward movement . Kesmeci elaborated:
Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView
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