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When I look in emerging markets, there are a couple of pairs that have caught my attention as of late. One such pair is the US dollar against the Philippine peso, as the 59 PHP level continues to be a massive barrier. We have seen a couple of negative candlesticks on the daily chart, and it looks like we are struggling to finally break above this level.
For what it is worth, the stochastic oscillator is also overbought and crossing, but I think we've got a situation where the simple bit of profit-taking is probably coming into the picture.
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It's probably worth noting that the US dollar has sold off a little bit against multiple currencies during the trading session, so it's not a huge surprise that we have seen the same action here. The US dollar has been overbought, so I think ultimately, we are going to see a softening US dollar in the short term. This should benefit the Philippine peso, but whether or not it ends up being a major shift is a completely different question. Although the Philippine economy has been rather strong over the last couple of years, there are a lot of concerns out there when it comes to global trade, and of course whether or not inflation will continue to be a major issue.
The 6% interest rate coming out of the Philippines obviously is very interesting, but in the United States is showing signs of growth that a lot of other economies or not. Furthermore, there is the“safety bid” that helps the US dollar overall, so it does make a certain amount of sense that we would continue to see this currency attract a lot of inflows. Furthermore, we also have stock markets in America doing quite well, I think a lot of people are looking toward the upside in this pair, as well as many other emerging markets.
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