(MENAFN- Investor Ideas) Investorideas ( ), a go-to platform for big investing ideas releases market commentary from Quasar Elizundia, expert research strategist at Pepperstone.
"Consumer confidence in Colombia reached its lowest level of 2024 in September, registering a rate of -16.0%. This deterioration of 0.7 percentage points compared to August marks the second consecutive month of decline in this indicator, reflecting growing uncertainty among Colombian households about the current and future economic situation.
This decline is primarily attributed to a 2.2% drop in the Economic Conditions index (ECI), indicating that consumers perceive a worsening of their current financial situation. Although the Consumer Expectations Index (CEI) showed a slight increase of 0.2%, it was not enough to offset the widespread negative perception.
The decline in confidence comes amid a complex international context. Latin American currencies are facing a challenging day influenced by global factors. The Colombian peso, in particular, has shown vulnerability to the drop in oil prices, which remain under pressure. The WTI blend has fallen 7% so far this week, nearing $70 per barrel, due to signs that a significant supply disruption in the Middle East could be avoided and downward revisions in global demand forecasts by the IEA and OPEC.
At the regional level, consumer confidence declined in three of the five cities analyzed. Bucaramanga recorded the largest drop with -6.7 percentage points, followed by Medellín and Bogotá. In contrast, Cali and Barranquilla showed improvements, indicating differentiated local dynamics that may be mitigating pessimism in these areas.
By socioeconomic levels, confidence significantly decreased in the high and middle strata, with a notable drop of -11.9% in the high-income level. This figure is particularly relevant, as it suggests that even segments with greater purchasing power are adopting a more cautious stance, which could impact key sectors such as real estate and durable goods.
The willingness to buy housing decreased by 2.2 percentage points compared to August, although it showed a significant increase compared to the same month last year. This mixed behavior reflects consumers' fluctuating expectations regarding the real estate market and current credit conditions.
As for the purchase of durable goods, there was a decrease of 7.2 percentage points, standing at -30.8%. This decline suggests that households are postponing major investments, possibly anticipating a more challenging economic environment in the short term.
In summary, the Colombian economy is facing headwinds both internally and externally. The combination of declining consumer confidence, volatility in currency markets, and continued pressure on oil prices poses significant challenges.
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