Chinese Subs May Soon Sport Satellite-Killing Lasers

In a June 2024 article for the US Naval Institute (USNI), Liam Nawara says that SSNs have the potential to retain unhindered freedom of maneuver under persistent space-based intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR), possibly making them potent ASAT platforms.

Nawara mentions that as the cost-to-launch into low-Earth orbit (LEO) decreases, satellite constellations will support more persistent ISR, impacting maritime conflicts.

He says that SSNs, such as the US Navy's Virginia class, are an example of a platform capable of attacking adversary surveillance satellites with directed-energy weapons such as lasers and high-powered microwave systems.

Nawara underscores the importance of submarines' stealth capabilities in an era where surface ships and land forces struggle for localized superiority due to the omnipresence of space-based ISR.

He envisions a future operational environment where submarines equipped with ASAT-directed-energy weapons play a crucial role in achieving localized ISR superiority and supporting joint force operations.

Further, H I Sutton writes in a February 2020 Forbes article that a laser-armed ASAT submarine will only have to reveal itself briefly to eliminate the threat and that lasers are complicated to defend against since they travel at the speed of light.

Sutton mentions that besides killing satellites, submarine-mounted lasers could be effective against swarming unmanned surface vehicles (USV), promising negligible costs per shot, unlike gun and missile-based systems. He adds that laser weapons could be effective against fast attack craft or other manned targets that are not worth a torpedo.

He also says submarine-mounted lasers could strike coastal targets such as submarine piers or communications masts. However, he mentions that the caveat is that the target must be of sufficiently high value to justify the risk of placing the submarine so close to a hostile shore.

However, submarine-mounted lasers may also have significant drawbacks, which may be inferred from developing submarine-launched surface-to-air missiles (SLAMs), a similar mast-mounted weapons system.

Tyler Rogoway mentions in a July 2020 article for The War Zone that mast-mounted submarine weapons systems such as SLAMs and possibly lasers may only be useful as a last line of defense for submarines that have been detected and face destruction from an aerial or space-based threat.

Rogoway says that SLAMs or submarine-mounted lasers would require the submarine to be dangerously close to the surface to take a shot, leaving the submarine vulnerable to attack.

However, he says that using SLAMs or submarine-mounted lasers could allow for plausible deniability, as the nationality of the attacking submarine may not necessarily be known before a SLAM or laser attack.

Rogoway cautions that a SLAM or submarine laser attack might not destroy its intended target outright. If that happens, he says that a failed attack may give away the submarine's position, which would likely mean guaranteed destruction for the submarine.

He also notes technical issues in mounting SLAMs or lasers on the limited space of a submarine mast.

In January 2024, Asia Times pointed out that current laser weapons are constrained by physical, weight, power and cooling requirements, which may not be available on surface warships and perhaps much less on submarines.

Rogoway says that SLAMs or submarine-mounted lasers may be a weapon of last resort, given the significant implications of their use. Furthermore, he mentions that such weapons conflict with traditional submarine warfare tactics.

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The idea of submarine-mounted lasers may also be wholly negated by the increasing transparency of the world's oceans, brought on by the proliferation of technologies such as commercial satellite imagery, synthetic aperture radar, hydroacoustic monitoring and even social media.

In a March 2023 The Conversation article , Roger Bradbury and other writers say that advancements in science may lead to the detection of submarine movements and their environmental impacts, potentially making the oceans“transparent” and marking the end of the submarine era.

Bradbury and his team conducted a comprehensive analysis in 2020 to anticipate the future and its potential developments, focusing on the 2050s. Their assessment utilized the Intelfuze software, which provides thorough, transparent and updatable probabilistic evaluations, particularly suitable for addressing issues with uncertain and speculative data.

According to their findings, it is highly probable (with a 90% likelihood from some perspectives) that the oceans will become transparent in most cases by the 2050s.

They say that this high-confidence estimate, evaluated independently by the software at above 70% certainty, suggests that submarines, including nuclear-powered ones, will likely be detectable in the world's oceans due to advancements in science and technology, despite any developments in stealth technologies.

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