Putinism Making Inroads In Central Asia's Kyrgyzstan

After participating in an armed attempt to storm Parliament , Japarov fled the country. Upon his return to Kyrgyzstan in 2017 he was jailed, but he established a new political party from prison.

In January 2021, Japarov won the presidential election with almost 80% of the vote , having run on a populist platform that included pledges to crack down on corrupt elites and foreign corporations.

But Japarov also stressed the importance of Kyrgyzstan's special relationship with Russia. And increasingly his style of leadership has taken a leaf out of Putin's playbook. The presidential vote in 2021 was accompanied by a referendum that increased the power of the office and reduced the importance of Parliament.

Japarov is making that shift concrete: He is constructing a new presidential building about five miles south of the city center, reducing the potential for street politics to factor so largely in the country's future.

During my October visit, other signs were apparent of Japarov's determination to reshape Kyrgyz politics. On October 4, 2023, security forces shot and killed leading crime boss Kolya Kolbaev in a Bishkek pub he owned.

State media represented this as a crackdown on organized crime, consistent with Japarov's election promises. But to many Bishkek citizens, it was less of a crackdown and more a takeover of Kolbaev's lucrative criminal operations by the Kyrgyz state .

A week later, there was another potential display of Kyrgyzstan's drift away from people power. Bishkek's kindergartens, schools and colleges were abruptly ordered to close or operate only online on October 12 and 13.

The measure coincided with Bishkek's hosting the annual meeting of the Commonwealth of Independent States, which Putin, making his first international trip since the International Criminal Court issued a warrant for his arrest, was due to attend.

Officially, the closures were simply to ease congestion. But I heard locals speculate that authorities acted to forestall any youth-led protests against the country's prominent and potentially divisive guest. The authorities instituted a similar measure on October 25 and 26 during a visit by China's Premier Li Qiang .

Also in October, Parliament discussed proposed laws that closely resemble legislation introduced by Putin in Russia. The bills would curtail freedom of expression and empower the government to prosecute or shut down any organization it identifies as being a“foreign representative.”

Despite protest from Kyrgyz and international media freedom groups, the United Nations and the United States – which expressed its concerns in a letter, prompting Japarov to accuse Washington of meddling – the laws keep moving forward. In a controversial Parliament vote in late February 2024, 62 votes to advance the law were passed by the 50 members present, some of whom cast votes for their absent colleagues.

In intimidating Parliament, eliminating powerful rivals and cracking down on free media, Japarov is not only adopting many of Putin's methods, he is taking a calculated bet against the country's recent history of democratic activism.

On the surface, the odds are in the government's favor. Compared with other post-Soviet states, Putin still commands high approval ratings in Kyrgyzstan . After a decade and a half of political turbulence – as well as widespread corruption and organized crime – Japarov's“strongman” persona is appealing for many.

But for many other Kyrgyz citizens, cozying up to Russia raises concerns.

After all, Georgia and Ukraine were also founder members of the Commonwealth of Independent States. Both have since been attacked by Putin's Russia.

Bishkek – then known as Pishpek – came under Russian rule in the 1850s as the czar conquered a patchwork of Central Asian city-states and nomadic tribes under the guise of a“civilizing mission.”

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The Kyrgyz people continued to defend their distinctive nomadic way of life. But overt resistance against Russian rule was met with brutal force. In 1916, when imperial Russia began forcibly conscripting Kyrgyz men to fight in World War I, Kyrgyz rebelled .

In the crackdown that followed, over 100,000 Kyrgyz were killed . Many women and children died crossing the Tian Shan mountains to seek refuge in China from Russian repression.

Soviet rule ostensibly offered the promise of better relations with Moscow. And in 1926, the Kyrgyz gained autonomy; full republic status followed in 1936.

In common with much of the Soviet Union, Kyrgyz citizens suffered from Stalin's purges. In 1938, 138 Kyrgyz intellectuals were killed and buried in a mass grave outside Bishkek, where Stalin's victims are remembered, alongside other Kyrgyz patriots, at the Ata-Beyit memorial near Bishkek.

A frieze at Ata-Beyit depicting Soviet police arresting Kyrgyz intellectuals. Keith Brown, CC BY

This commitment to preserving memory, combined with a deep distrust of authoritarian overreach, anchors Kyrgyz citizens. But it rubs up against where the country finds itself today: in a pivotal place amid shifting geopolitics.

The US and Russia are vying for influence in Central Asia, while China, Turkey and the Persian Gulf states are also making significant investments in the region.

As Kyrgyzstan's leaders seek to maintain sovereignty, develop and diversify the economy and improve the country's standing in the world, they face difficult choices. For now, they seem to be following Putin's path.

Keith Brown is a professor of politics and global studies at Arizona State University .

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article .

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