Zelensky's War Increasingly Seen As 'Fought By The Poor'

With the Kremlin's relative military strength growing, denying Putin this success – which he is likely to want to achieve before his all-but-certain re-election in March and likely inauguration in May – will require a serious Ukrainian defense effort.

In turn, this implies that the Ukrainian leadership is currently less concerned about strategic prospects, but is motivated by the need to mobilize all available resources for this effort.

The two complementary bills regarding on mobilization which were submitted by the government to parliament on December 30, 2023, indicate that Zelensky and his inner circle are serious about this.

At the same time, if adopted and implemented, the new approach to mobilization will also add significant strain for already stretched Ukrainian state institutions and society.

As publicly confirmed by senior Ukrainian officials, large numbers of volunteers for frontline service simply no longer exist. So the government proposes coercive measures to ensure continuing enlistment.

These range from high fines for draft dodging, to seizure of real estate and the freezing of private bank accounts, to the cancellation of passports of Ukrainian refugees abroad.

The latter group in particular, including an estimated 600,000 fighting-age men living in the EU, will become a key target of Kiev's mobilization efforts. Addressing them directly in his New Year's speech , Zelensky didn't mince his words:“You need to decide whether you are a refugee or a citizen.”

In parallel, there will be further efforts to put Ukraine's economy on a war footing, as announced by Ukraine's prime minister, Denys Shmyhal. The planned mobilization will be accompanied by a new economic strategy to increase the tax burden on individual citizens and small and medium-sized businesses while social spending will be radically reduced.

These measures are undoubtedly necessary from a strategic perspective – especially if Ukraine wants to regain the initiative on the battlefield.

But taken together, these actions by the government have revived potentially divisive discussions in Ukrainian society about social justice, corruption and the social contract between elites and society. The level of public trust in elites is already low, and decreasing further , and the war is increasingly seen as a“war fought by the poor.”

What is more, the demographic trends in Ukraine's society further exacerbate the unfavorable long-term prospects of the ever-increasing number of people living in poverty. Life expectancy of men has reduced from an already low 65 years in 2021 to 57 years in 2023.

Birth rates remain very low, with some demographers estimating a fall to 0.55 babies per family in 2023. Meanwhile, emigration of the most skilled and economically active population has accelerated since the war began. This leaves predominantly the poor to do the fighting while seeing their living standards further decline.

Forced mobilization, the reduction of the rights and freedoms of the population, further economic disruption and social hardship contrast sharply with what is widely perceived as the corruption-fuelled lifestyle of an entrenched and unaccountable elite.

Zelensky himself may not (yet) be directly associated with this – and his relative lack of success in rooting out corruption has yet to significantly harm his own popularity.

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But several people in his inner circle have been associated with corrupt practices. If nothing else, more fractious domestic politics, including between military and political elites, will undermine Ukraine's resilience and combat effectiveness from the inside, further playing into Russian hands.

Thus, Ukraine needs a new social contract between elites and society as much as it needs a re-assessment of its military strategy. Yet, neither is likely.

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky and Commander in Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Valerii Zaluzhny visit an artillery training center, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, at an undisclosed location in Ukraine on November 3, 2023. Photo: Ukrainian Presidential Office

Zelensky and his foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, insist that there is a path to victory and that they“do not have a plan B.” This uncompromising position is reflected in the current mobilization plans.

More men, however, do not constitute a strategy. At best, they can be part of a strategy. To justify the undoubted sacrifice that Zelensky is asking of Ukrainian society, he needs to articulate a clearer purpose and direction.

Simply reiterating the desirable – Ukraine's complete liberation – will sooner or later come to be seen in Ukraine and in Western partner capitals as a fantasy dangerously detached from realities on the ground.

Stefan Wolff is Professor of International Security, University of Birmingham and Tetyana Malyarenko is Professor of International Relations, Jean Monnet Professor of European Security, National University Odesa Law Academy

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article .